Category: Highlights

East Africa and Southern Africa

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Overall market risk: Africa’s economic expansion is anticipated to decelerate this year, with a partial recovery expected in 2024, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB). The bank has revised its GDP projections downward for the continent, attributing the slowdown to political instability, subdued global economic growth, and elevated interest rates. The latest report indicates a decline in real GDP growth from 4% in 2022 to 3.4% this year, with a subsequent increase to 3.8% projected for 2024. The enduring impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with rising food and energy prices resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, have impeded Africa’s initial robust post-pandemic economic recovery.

Additionally, political unrest across the continent, sluggish global demand affecting exports, monetary policy tightening, and heightened borrowing costs have compounded these challenges. Since early 2022, many African nations have faced restricted access to international debt markets due to exorbitant interest rates, prompting Ethiopia to express its intent to restructure its sole overseas bond. The growth forecast for East Africa has been revised downward by 0.7% to 3.4%, influenced by the civil war in Sudan and the financial pressure on Kenya to repay or refinance a $2 billion bond maturing in June 2024. Southern Africa is projected to exhibit the continent’s slowest growth in 2023, at 1.6%, primarily due to persistent power cuts constraining output in South Africa, the region’s largest economy. Notably, countries not heavily reliant on commodity exports are anticipated to experience comparatively higher economic growth, offsetting the decline expected in commodity-exporting nations. Main factors affecting fertilizer markets for the reporting month were mostly Macro-economic in nature with many countries experiencing significant currency devaluation against the dollar essentially meaning imports have to come at much more cost. The cost of credit was also another issue reported across, multiple regions.

Availability and Affordability: In the East Africa region where short rain season has just completed in some countries and continues in others, fertilizer demand has begun slowing down with the exception of countries like Ethiopia whose main importation window is in full swing. In the southern region, 2023/2024 cropping season has begun and fertilizer demand is high in countries like Zambia and Zimbabwe.

In Kenya, between January and November 2023, about 700,000MT of fertilizer has been imported into the country in both subsidy and private markets (67%/33%)). During the ongoing short rain season, various importers are actively importing fertilizer to ensure availability. While the overall import numbers of fertilizers have not declined, a significant portion (67%) of the imported fertilizers in the country were directly procured through government bodies like NCPB and KNTC. This has seen an outcry from the private sector who feel like they are being crowded out of business.

In Ethiopia, the Ethiopian shipping and logistic services enterprise (ESLSE) is in the process of shipping fertilizers for 2023/24 cropping season. In Malawi, the November stock report from Fertilizer Association of Malawi for NPK and Urea states that in country stocks are 70,771MT, and 149,265MT in port. There are fears of shortage and unaffordability because of forex issues and devaluation of Malawian Kwacha. In Zimbabwe, retail outlets are facing a shortage of fertilizers as farmers are reluctant to borrow at the revised concessionary interest rate of 75%, and fertilizer manufacturers and distributors are constrained by high-interest rates and liquidity issues.

Distribution: The El Niño conditions prevalent in many parts of the Eastern Africa region have caused extensive damage to infrastructure and crops, disrupting transportation in several areas. Beira Port had to halt vessel berthing twice due to strong winds and rainfall. The port is anticipated to experience heightened congestion due to an increased number of export vessels. The early onset of the rainy season, usually spanning from December to March, has exacerbated congestion in vessel berthing, resulting in delays of up to 40 days and escalated demurrage costs. Cargo rail services to Kenya’s Mombasa port have resumed following flood-induced damage to a section of the track. The Durban port in South Africa continues to grapple with inefficiencies, marked by a backlog of over 60 vessels carrying thousands of containers outside the port due to adverse weather conditions and aging equipment.

West Africa

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Overall market risk: The current state of fertilizer pricing in West African nations reflects a decreased demand due to the onset of the dry season in most regions. As a result, fertilizer prices have seen mixed trends in various geographies. Currency devaluation issues have resulted in rises in local currency prices for commodities for new stock with some countries having older stock eliciting stable trends. This mixed trend is expected to persist, aligning with the macro-economic, global price trends and fresh positioning of fertilizers into the region. There have been no major reports of fertilizer shortages, and fertilizers remain available in most of the countries in this region under review. Countries facing conflict issues like Niger continue to adapt to the situation, border closures etc. with “emerging” road channels from Nigeria ameliorating complete availability breakdown. Furthermore, there is an unrestricted movement and supply of fertilizers from country to country.

Cote d’Ivoire: The fertilizer market in Côte d’Ivoire has continued to sustain its stability, with a well-balanced supply and demand scenario. The recent conclusion of the main crop year has led to a decrease in demand, but the supply system, adept at adjusting to market needs, has ensured equilibrium. Importers in Côte d’Ivoire have been proactive, maintaining an impressive quantity of fertilizer in the market with a tonnage of fertilizer mobilized exceeding that of previous years.

Ghana: Fertilizer products are readily available at Agro Dealer shops nationwide. The prices have been relatively stable in some regions while dropping in other regions of the country. On November 3, the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) in Ghana initiated a tender for the purchase of 1,750 metric tons of NPKs and 875 metric tons of urea. The financing for this procurement is secured through a World Bank initiative specifically dedicated to obtaining NPK and urea.

Nigeria is currently in off-season as the dry season sets in most areas. This has led to a noticeable decrease in the blending of NPK fertilizer and a significant decline in farmers’ fertilizer demand. Agrodealers have chosen to keep NPK fertilizer prices stable, considering the limited demand from farmers. Interestingly, urea prices have gone up slightly in the market for the month in review. There is a substantial amount of fertilizer available in the country, ensuring an adequate supply for consumption during the dry season farming.

In Senegal, the agricultural market in the country has continued to maintain its stability, with a balanced supply and demand situation. Adequate preparations, including substantial fertilizer production, imports, and a successful subsidy program, ensured a consistent supply. Fertilizer prices remained stable due to an abundant supply of subsidized fertilizers and a decline in international prices.

Niger: Since the military coup in Niger on July 26, 2023, the situation in the country has experienced minor change, and ECOWAS sanctions remain in effect. The disruption in fertilizer supply persists due to border closures, causing congestion at the port of Cotonou. Fertilizer supply within Niger has significantly decreased, marked by a decline in official imports, and a substantial portion of the supply is now routed through informal channels. Although some fertilizer types are depleted, others, predominantly sourced from neighboring Nigeria continue finding their way into the country unofficially.

In Togo, the northern region saw minimal changes in agricultural activity as the cropping year approached its end, leading to a reduced demand for fertilizer. Meanwhile, the southern region experienced the start of the short rainy season, causing an uptick in fertilizer demand for vegetable and rice cultivation. This increased demand is well-managed, as the market benefits from ample supply and government-supported reserves strategically positioned throughout the country. Fertilizer prices remained stable throughout the year due to continued subsidies, with fixed prices for various types of fertilizers supporting both food and cotton crops. Overall, the government’s efforts contribute to the stability and accessibility of fertilizers in the market.

Availability and Affordability: In general, fertilizer markets in West Africa maintain a mixed price outlook across most retail markets. Currency devaluation on one hand has led to a slight increase in local currency prices, especially for fresh imports, markets with “older” stock have had more stable outlooks. Although concerns about affordability persist in certain countries, there is a widespread assurance of availability, and no reports of severe shortages have emerged. This mixed price trend is likely to continue into the new year.

Distribution: The distribution of fertilizers in West Africa has largely returned to normalcy, signaling a positive shift as the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict diminish. While most fertilizer ports and border crossings are operational, challenges persist in Nigeria’s northeastern region due to security concerns. Additionally, Niger faces import sanctions following a recent coup, complicating distribution. Despite setbacks, landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have shown resilience by using ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a steady supply. This adaptability reflects the agricultural sector’s resourcefulness. The “stabilization” of distribution channels in the region offers a promising outlook for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. Overall, the trajectory points towards stability and continuity in the vital fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.

East Africa and Southern Africa

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Overall market risk: The economic prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa continue to appear gloomy, with the prospect of a sustained growth recovery remaining elusive. The most recent report from the World Bank, “Africa’s Pulse,” highlights that increasing instability, sluggish growth in the region’s major economies, and persistent global economic uncertainties are adversely affecting growth prospects in the region. Governments are exerting significant efforts to tackle these macroeconomic imbalances, as the issue of high inflation persists. Policymakers in this region confront some of the most formidable policy dilemmas on a global scale. They must persevere in upholding macroeconomic stability, all while contending with resource constraints and the imperative to address development priorities, all while enduring frequent shocks and fragility.

According to Relief Web, even though El Nino has been declared, the June-September seasonal rains have performed favourably in Eastern Africa, and this implies the impact this year will be less than during previous events. In Southern Africa however, it is predicted to be disastrous with the greatest impact foreseen in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Madagascar. Notwithstanding these challenges, there have been indications of progress in both the import and domestic manufacturing of fertilizers with only minor disruptions. This suggests a more reliable supply of fertilizers, a critical factor in bolstering the agricultural sector and guaranteeing sufficient food production. Fertilizer prices have continued to drop. This decline can be attributed to the reduced costs of raw material inputs like natural gas, urea, and ammonia. The global economy has been able to adapt to the disruptions caused by the war by seeking alternative sources for natural gas and other materials, and also by constructing new production facilities worldwide.

Availability and Affordability: In East Africa, fertilizer demand is slowly picking up as the short rains are finally here. In Ethiopia, EABC is in the process of sourcing for Urea for 2023/24 season. In Tanzania 718,000 MT has so far been imported into the country, a 32% up on total 2022 imports.  The situation is quite different in South Africa where overall, imports of urea, potash, and phosphates have been slow with reports of a 47% decline in 2023. So far only 383,000 tonnes have been imported compared to 723,000 tonnes in the same period of 2022. A shortage of MAP has also been reported. In Kenya, the Government is heard to be sourcing for NPK products. KTDA’s shipment for NPK 26-5-5 and other NPKs also arrived in mid-October.

In Malawi, the October stock report from Fertilizer Association of Malawi states that in-country stocks are 86,513MT, and 212,954MT in port (this stock report only tracks NPK and Urea which are the most used fertilizers in Malawi). Availability is likely to pick up in the next few months as the Government has made efforts to source forex for suppliers that were awarded contracts for the subsidy program. In Zambia, no shortage has been reported. The demand for Urea and D compound is high as the main season draws near.

Distribution: The East African economies are currently experiencing a renewed surge in fuel costs following the decision by Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend the removal of 1.3 million barrels of crude oil per day from the global market for another three months. This could see a further increase in freight and local transportation costs. At the ports and borders, no major issues have been reported. Importation and distribution of fertilizers remain unaffected.

West Africa

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Overall market risk: Demand for fertilizers in West African countries has seen a decline, primarily as a result of the conclusion of the main farming season. Consequently, fertilizer prices have experienced a general decrease throughout the region. It is anticipated that these prices will continue to decline in tandem with the decreasing international prices. Fortunately, there have been no reports of fertilizer shortages, and fertilizers remain readily available in all the countries under review, including Niger. This consistent availability in Niger is facilitated by the continuous flow of products through parallel routes. Furthermore, there is an unrestricted movement and supply of fertilizers from one country to another, except for Niger. Niger has faced sanctions imposed by ECOWAS following a coup d’état, which has disrupted the normal flow of goods and supplies.

Despite the overall decrease in prices, the West African region is still experiencing somewhat higher prices compared to previous years. However, on a general scale, prices have remained relatively stable in most countries, and there have been no reports of unavailability.

Cote d’Ivoire: The fertilizer market in Ivory Coast has maintained a state of stability, with no significant pressure on supply. This stability is attributed to a supply that adapts to the level of demand. The situation has been further influenced by a decline in demand following the recent conclusion of the main crop year. Importers in Ivory Coast have been proactive throughout the year, mobilizing an impressive quantity of fertilizer. In fact, the tonnage of fertilizer mobilized this year has exceeded the tonnage from the previous year by 71%. It appears that this stock of fertilizer has not yet been fully utilized. This surplus is expected to be more than sufficient to meet the fertilizer needs for the last two months of the year.

Ghana: Ghana is currently in its off-peak farming season, which started in September and is expected to continue until November. Fertilizer prices have remained steady in the open market, and there have been no reports of fertilizer shortages, due to reduced demand. The prices have been relatively stable in some region while dropping in other region of the country. The government have been preparing to make available cheaper and more available fertilizers for the next planting year through the planting for Food and Job initiative (phase II).

In Nigeria, Numerous farmers have already completed their fertilizer applications and are now in the process of harvesting their crops. This off-season period has led to a noticeable reduction in the blending of NPK fertilizers by producers and a substantial decrease in fertilizer demand among farmers. Fertilizer products, including urea and NPK, are generally well-stocked and readily available in the market. However, agro-dealers are currently facing the challenge of low demand from farmers. This situation has resulted in a consistent drop in fertilizer prices in the market. The information gathered indicates that there is an abundant supply of fertilizers in the country, especially urea. This abundance is a positive sign, ensuring there will be ample volumes of fertilizer available for dry-season farming, which is expected in the upcoming months.

In Senegal, fertilizer prices remained stable from September to October due to a combination of factors. The availability of subsidized fertilizers in the market and a decline in international fertilizer prices contributed to this stability. The fertilizer market in Senegal is running smoothly with consistent demand, and there are no significant supply issues. Senegal has made extensive preparations for the agricultural season, benefiting from local fertilizer production and substantial imports. Importers have increased their orders to ensure a steady fertilizer supply, and the government has played a key role in assuring farmers of fertilizer availability. Over 180,500 tons of fertilizer have been distributed through the subsidy program to support this assurance.

Niger: The situation in Niger has remained largely unchanged since the military coup on July 26, 2023, with ECOWAS sanctions still in effect. Fertilizer supply to Niger continues to be severely disrupted due to border closures, causing long lines of goods trucks and congestion at the port of Cotonou. The port authorities in Cotonou have temporarily suspended Nigerien supplies due to this congestion, leading to a buildup of containers. Fertilizer supply in Niger has seen a significant decline, with a reduction in official imports, and much of the supply now comes through informal channels. While stocks of certain fertilizers are depleted, there is an abundance of others, mainly sourced from neighboring Nigeria. Demand for fertilizers has increased with the start of the irrigated season, highlighting the need to address logistical challenges and border issues affecting fertilizer supply in Niger.

In Togo, Government-backed fertilizer reserves are strategically distributed across all regions of the country, ensuring that they can fully cater to the needs of farmers. It’s important to emphasize that, as part of the subsidy program, the government has increased its fertilizer orders to guarantee a plentiful supply during the growing season. However, in the northern region of the country, the primary agricultural season is winding down, leading to a noticeable decrease in fertilizer demand. In contrast, in the southern zone, the commencement of the short rainy season has sparked optimism for increased demand from farmers in this region. This heralds the start of renewed agricultural activities and a potential resurgence in the requirement for fertilizers.

Availability and Affordability: By and large, fertilizer markets in West Africa have largely regained their equilibrium, with prices remaining steady in the majority of retail markets, although a few exceptions exist. While affordability remains a prominent concern in specific countries, there is a general assurance of availability, and no reports of severe shortages have surfaced, even in Niger. This overall stability and continuous supply bode well for the agricultural sector in the region.

Distribution: The distribution of fertilizers has, for the most part, regained a sense of normalcy across West Africa, with the lingering effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict gradually waning. All fertilizer ports and border crossings are operational, except for Nigeria’s northeastern region, where security concerns continue to limit fertilizer movement, and Niger, which is facing import sanctions following a recent coup d’état. Landlocked countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso have found a workaround by utilizing ports in Cote d’Ivoire to facilitate their fertilizer imports, ensuring a steady supply of these vital agricultural inputs. This reestablishment of distribution channels is a positive development for the region’s agricultural sector.

East Africa and Southern Africa

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Overall market risk: In Kenya, the ongoing drought is likely to impact the anticipated long rain season which normally starts in March through to May. This is already affecting crop production for the year, increasing the risk of food insecurity and ultimately the country’s economic growth. Additionally, reduced agricultural activities pose a high risk because of low fertilizer consumption as well as increased inflationary pressures. Despite predictions from the meteorology department of depressed rains, traders and importers are seen to be positioning their products for the season. 

Tanzania continues to face depressed fertilizer demand and subsequently use, mainly contributed by the high price of fertilizers. Imposition of taxes and other charges at the port of Dar es Salaam are adding fuel to the fire. Other reasons include additional levies and taxes imposed on the raw materials used in the production of local fertilizers and inadequate credit arrangements to support smallholder farmers to access improved agricultural inputs. 

In Southern Africa, Zambia inflation accelerated to a two-month high in February as non-food price growth quickened, suggesting that underlying price pressures are mounting. A possible reduction in corn output because of adverse weather conditions and infestations of fall armyworms may also fuel inflation this year. South Africa is also battling elevated inflation and rising interest rates, in an environment of extremely low economic growth amid both domestic and international developments. 

Availability and Affordability: Overall, fertilizer availability has improved both in inventory and active trade across the different Eastern and Southern Africa countries. 

In the Eastern Africa region, availability of fertilizers is not really an issue. Importation of the fertilizers for the upcoming application periods continues. YoY, fertilizer prices although still high, continue to soften. In Kenya, fertilizer imports stood at 200K Metric Ton as of February, a 30% improvement YoY. In Tanzania, it is 300K Metric Tons. Uganda has also reported enough inventory to meet the demand. In Rwanda, agrodealers have stocked fertilizers for the short rain season but low farmer demand is being reported. Main reason, is delayed and depressed rains. 

In the Southern Africa region, traders and the FISP program in Zambia are building up stocks of Compound D and Urea fertilizers ahead of the winter season in May. In Mozambique, no shortage has been reported albeit with a  low intake due to high prices. In Malawi, Farmers can still redeem their input requirements under the AIP despite passage of the main application season.  

Distribution: Normal operations have been observed in most ports and across borders in ESA region. Inland, transport of fertilizer is with no hitch. Increased global fuel prices has slightly increased transportation cost. Beira and Nacala in Mozambique and Durban ports are experiencing reduced pressure as the agricultural season draws to a close in Southern Africa. In Mozambique, the raging Tropical cyclone Freddy has resulted in uncounted damage to infrastructure and displacement of people in the southern region. The insurgency in Cabo Delgado province has also resulted in displacement and food shortage in the region.  

West Africa

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Overall market risk: There has been a continuous downward price correction in the international prices of fertilizers. Some countries in West Africa are taking advantage of the low prices to stock up for the season, while others have reduced the quantity they usually purchase YoY. The low price has created sufficient availability in most retail markets across West Africa, AfricaFertilizer is seeing a situation where the landed CFR prices into West Africa are slowly starting to follow the trend. The most important concern however is the insufficient farmer demand across the board, and this might stifle how fast this price correction gets reflected in the retail chain.

Cote d’Ivoire has continued to stock up products with over 100,000 tons of fertilizer imported so far since the beginning of the year. However, sales are still low as retail fertilizer prices are still unaffordable to farmers. FCFA 30,000 is the average amount needed to buy a 50kg bag of fertilizer, an amount that is out of reach for most farmers.

In Ghana, the unaffordability of fertilizers has also triggered low demand on the part of the farmers, hence most of them have been waiting for the governments planting for food and jobs program (PFJ) in order to get quantities of fertilizers for the season. The PFJ’s implementation is expected to cost the government GHS660 million in 2023. This sum represents a 7.5% increase over the GHS614 million spent in 2022. Targeted beneficiaries are anticipated to increase in number in line with the budget for 2023. We expect a decision to be made soon regarding the 2023 iteration as a new Minister for Agriculture assumes office in the coming days as reliably informed.

In Nigeria, the preparation for the elections and the cashless policy has relatively rendered the fertilizer market inactive, as prices have generally remained stable with low demand despite ample availability. There are some indications that the Nigerian fertilizer market could pick up once the entire election process is over, right in time for the farming season preparations.

With low demand for fertilizers in Togo − Given the end of the agricultural season, many farmers are not using fertilizer at this time. However, orders for fertilizer by the government are underway to mobilize stocks of fertilizer to meet the needs of farmers for the 2023-2024 crop year.

Availability and Affordability: Fertilizers have been generally available in West Africa, not because the quantity supplied has increased, but because the quantity demanded has been reducing. Despite the reduction in prices being experienced in the international market, this is yet to be reflected in the local price points as retail prices are still largely unaffordable to the farmers. All through the West Africa region, prices have relatively been stable, with pockets of increases, but there has been no report of shortages, only reports of low demand, and the inability of farmers to purchase their farming requirements owing to the cost of the products and general economic hardship at micro level

Distribution: Despite the continuing crisis in  Russia-Ukraine, some semblance of normalcy in fertilizer trade is gradually returning to West Africa with fertilizer distribution improving. Ports and borders are open for fertilizers except the Northeast region of Nigeria which is still restricting fertilizer movement due to insecurity. 

East Africa and Southern Africa

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Risque global du marché: Un rapport récent du Fonds monétaire international (FMI) indique que les pays africains connaissent une période de resserrement de la demande de devises, associée à une réduction des liquidités sur le marché interbancaire des changes ainsi qu’à une dépréciation de la monnaie locale à la suite de la guerre en Ukraine. Au Kenya, par exemple, après 60 jours de baisse, le shilling kenyan a connu sa plus longue série de pertes depuis le début des archives en 1988. 

Kenya : Après des mois de sécheresse et de chaleur qui ont entraîné la sécheresse, la faim, la perte de vies humaines et la hausse dévastatrice du coût de la vie, les pluies sont enfin arrivées. Dans la plupart des régions du pays, les producteurs sont occupés à planter leurs cultures. Dans les régions du Sud et de l’Ouest, où les producteurs plantent principalement des cultures de base, du maïs et des haricots, une demande accrue d’engrais a été enregistrée, en particulier pour les engrais de base (DAP et mélanges de plantation).  

Zambie, la saison des semis vient de s’achever. Les dépôts de stockage à travers le pays ont été vidés alors que les producteurs se concentrent sur la gestion des récoltes. Le gouvernement a achevé le processus de préparation de l’appel d’offres FISP 2023/24 et l’a lancé au cours de la deuxième semaine de mars 2023.  

Malawi, la période d’épandage d’engrais est maintenant passée, de sorte que l’offre et la demande sont à leur point le plus bas de la saison. La demande devrait augmenter légèrement lorsque le pays entrera dans la saison des cultures d’hiver en mai/juin. Le pays se remet également des inondations massives qui ont touché la plupart de ses régions. 

Afrique du Sud, les activités commerciales dans la ceinture orientale sont calmes, mais l’activité reprend dans la région du Cap, où le marché se dirige vers sa période de pointe pour les cultures d’hiver. 

Abordabilité et disponibilité: Dans l’ensemble, la disponibilité et la demande d’engrais se sont améliorées, tant au niveau des stocks que du commerce actif dans les différents pays d’Afrique de l’Est et d’Afrique australe. 

Dans la région de l’Afrique de l’Est, la disponibilité des engrais n’est pas un problème. L’importation d’engrais pour les prochaines périodes d’application se poursuit. En glissement annuel, les prix des engrais, bien que toujours élevés, continuent de baisser. Au Rwanda, la fourniture d’engrais par Yara, ETG et RFC par l’intermédiaire des réseaux des agrodealers se poursuit normalement. De janvier à ce jour, environ 9.184 tonnes ont été importées, les chiffres des stocks de report étant obscurs. Au Kenya, afin de soutenir et d’aider les producteurs, le gouvernement a mis en place un programme de subvention des engrais dans le cadre duquel il fournit deux sacs de 50 kg par hectar pour les engrais de base et les engrais de couverture. Jusqu’à présent, le programme est mis en œuvre dans 12 comtés et il est prévu de l’étendre à d’autres comtés. Dans le secteur du thé, l’Agence kényane de développement du thé a lancé un appel d’offres pour l’approvisionnement de 92.737 tonnes de composé chimique NPK 26-5-5 pour l’année 2023. En Tanzanie, la situation suggère que 99% des besoins en engrais du pays sont satisfaits au niveau national. En mars, environ 200.000 tonnes d’engrais étaient disponibles dans le pays pour la saison. L’Éthiopie a également fait état d’une offre suffisante pour répondre à la demande. Environ 500.000 tonnes d’engrais sont arrivées au port de Djibouti et ont été distribuées aux unions de coopératives agricoles et aux entrepôts des coopératives primaires (CP). 

Dans la région de l’Afrique australe, le Malawi a fait état d’une demande et d’une offre faibles, car il se trouve dans la période de récolte qui commence en avril/mai 2023. La demande devrait toutefois augmenter à l’approche de la saison des cultures d’hiver qui commence au troisième trimestre. En Afrique du Sud, en général, comme tous les prix mondiaux des engrais sont maintenant inférieurs à ceux de l’année dernière, la demande d’engrais des producteurs devrait rester suffisante pour les cultures d’hiver, en particulier dans la province de Western Cape.  

 

Distribution: Des opérations normales ont été observées dans la plupart des ports et aux frontières de la région orientale et australe. À l’intérieur des pays, le transport d’engrais se fait sans problème. Les taux de fret et les prix d’expédition devraient se stabiliser progressivement au cours des prochains mois, bien que les importateurs restent sensibles aux retards et à la volatilité des coûts d’expédition. Les ports de Beira et Nacala au Mozambique et de Durban subissent une pression réduite alors que la saison agricole touche à sa fin en Afrique australe. Dar es Salaam et Mombasa, dans la région de l’Est, s’attendent en revanche à une augmentation des activités portuaires à l’approche de la longue saison des pluies.  La distribution intérieure d’engrais dans la région de l’Afrique australe a été affectée car les transporteurs ont dû cesser leurs activités pendant et après le cyclone.  

West Africa

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Overall market risk: Main international markets for fertilizer are in a lull. This is a positive trend  for Africa since most markets are now entering or already in their respective cropping seasons, particularly for West Africa. Some West African nations are taking advantage of this slump and downward price correction to procure fertilizers from the global markets whereas as others are showing a healthy inventory from the latest data from the national level Fertilizer technical working groups (FTWG’s) by AfricaFertilizer initiative.  

Cote d’Ivoire: In preparation for the crop year, major importers continue to mobilize fertilizer stocks. They are taking advantage of the drop in fertilizer prices on the international market to place orders, apprehensive that prices will rise again in the future. Importers have also diversified their source of supply since the conflicts. MOP usually sourced from Russia is now being sourced from Canada and Israel. As usual Baltic trade routes slowly re-open, normalcy in sourcing is set to return. 

In Ghana, while awaiting clearance for the appointment of the new Agric Minister designate, the food and agriculture ministry (MoFA) is actively pushing for the implementation of the 2023 Planting for Food and Jobs program. According to data from the Ghana Fertilizer Technical Working Group (FTWG), the country’s fertilizer imports in 2022 increased by 103% year on year. The market is likely to be sitting on a higher carryover stock level and with the fresh imports coming in, availability might not be an issue but more of affordability going into the 2023 cropping season. 

In Nigeria, the issue of cash shortages in the country is making business transactions between the farmers and agrodealers difficult, thereby decreasing demand and sales. It is expected that demand will start increasing as we approach the rainy season but if the cash situation does not improve, it will cause a lot of issues. High cost of transportation resulting from the scarcity and high cost of fuel is still affecting the fertilizer market in some parts of the country. The Federal Government is planning to introduce fertilizer subsidy to farmers in the country. This would be done through a programme financed by the African Development Bank and International Fund for Agricultural Development.  

In Togo, the state is in the process of scoping suppliers for farmer’s demand for the 2023-2024 crop year. The options being considered are the Moroccan and Nigerian giants.

Availability and Affordability: Fertilizer prices have been consistent or decreasing slightly month after month, but they are still not affordable to farmers, except in Togo, where they have fixed pricing. 

Fertilizers have been generally available in the countries we monitor, not because the quantity supplied has increased, but because the quantity demanded has decreased. Despite the reduction in prices in the international market, this is yet to be reflected in the local price points as retail prices are still largely unaffordable to the farmers because of prior stocks purchased at high price levels. 

Distribution: Notwithstanding the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, trade of fertilizers in West Africa is gradually returning to normal. Fertilizer ports and borders are open, with the exception of Nigeria’s northeast area, which continues to restrict fertilizer movement owing to insecurity. Landlocked nations such as Mali and Burkina Faso are also using ports in Cote d’Ivoire to import fertilizer.