Category: Highlights

Overall market risk: In West Africa, the onset of planting seasons marks a promising start, expected to drive increased demand among farmers. Despite this positive outlook, high price concerns persist across the region (even though they are not as high as it was in 2022/2023), prompting some countries to implement subsidies aimed at alleviating the burden on farmers. Despite efforts to mitigate pricing challenges, the availability of stocks remains notably robust. Encouragingly, no reports have surfaced of scarcity or unavailability of products in any West African country, underscoring a generally stable supply chain.

Benin: The Beninese government has maintained subsidies on fertilizers following a price increase by the cotton company. Over 24 billion FCFA has been allocated for this purpose, ensuring stable prices for urea and NPK fertilizers for the 2024-2025 farming season. Without these subsidies, access to fertilizers for low-income farmers would have been jeopardized, impacting production and national food security. Planting activities have begun in various regions, driven by the onset of the rainy season. Suppliers have increased their stock to meet growing demand, with an estimated 100,000 tons of urea available in the market. Additionally, the Ministry of Agriculture has received a shipment of 45,000 tonnes of NPK fertilizers, with more expected soon at the Autonomous Port of Cotonou.

Cote d’Ivoire: The Ivorian fertilizer market is well-supplied due to consistent efforts by importers, with over 200,000 tonnes available by the first quarter of 2024, in addition to the existing 100,000 tonnes stocked in December 2023. This ample supply meets the average consumption over the past five years, indicating sufficient provision for the current agricultural season. Rising demand from farmers, content with current prices lower than those in the previous year, suggests a potential increase in fertilizer demand for the 2024 crop year. Prices have remained relatively stable between March and April 2024, not exceeding $42 (or 25,000 FCFA) per 50 kg bag for all fertilizer types combined. The cotton sector procured 146,400 tons of fertilizer for the 2024 agricultural season in October 2023, slightly less than the previous year. Current prices stand at $28 (approximately 17,050 FCFA) for urea and $30 (around 18,100 FCFA) for NPK fertilizers, pending finalization for the 2024 season.

Ghana: In April, fertilizer prices remained relatively stable compared to March prices. Moroccan 15-15-15 fertilizer is currently priced at $520 per ton ex-works, with indications that this rate is part of a relief program. Awards for the tender issued by the World Bank for Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) are pending. AGRA, in collaboration with Ghana’s MoFA’s PPRSD, and with backing from USAID and IFDC, has officially delivered the country’s Inorganic Bulk Blending Fertilizer Guidelines to the government.

Liberia: In specific regions of Liberia, the onset of the rainy season has sparked a surge in fertilizer demand among farmers preparing their land for planting, with expectations of continued growth as rainfall becomes more consistent. In April, the fertilizer market presented varied outcomes for different agro-dealers. Agro-dealers adjusted stocking levels in anticipation of higher sales, ensuring adequate supply to meet farmers’ needs nationwide from April into May. Despite government’s lack of subsidy consideration resulting in consistently high fertilizer prices, dealers have implemented measures to sustain their businesses.

Nigeria: is experiencing the onset of the rainy season, driving increased demand for fertilizer in the Southern and North Central regions as farmers prepare for planting. Urea fertilizer prices show a slight decrease, while NPK prices remain relatively stable. Overall, fertilizer products are readily available, supported by ample raw materials for blending, totaling over 449,485.25 metric tons.

Senegal: In April 2024, fertilizers tailored for off-season use continue to be in high demand, with varying availability across the market. Both subsidized and open-market products are accessible, ensuring farmers have what they need for the season, thereby promoting agricultural productivity nationwide. The government’s ongoing efforts to facilitate access to agricultural inputs contribute to competitive market prices while ensuring accessibility, thus supporting agricultural productivity and food security. Analysis of fertilizer prices in different cities reveals significant diversity in both available types and costs. Prices for widely used urea range from 12,500 to 30,000 CFA francs (about $21 to $50) per 50 kg bag, with higher prices observed in northern regions. NPK formulations, including NPK 6-20-10, NPK 15-15-15, and NPK 20-20-20, also vary in price, from 13,000 CFA francs in the southern region of Bignona to 45,000 CFA francs (about $75) in the north in Saint Louis. Despite minor fluctuations, overall fertilizer prices remain relatively stable compared to the previous month, reflecting diverse market needs and product availability across the country.

Sierra Leone: From the end of March to late April 2024, Sierra Leone’s official inflation rate has remained steady at 42.59%, a slight decrease from February’s 47.42%. Throughout April, the exchange rate held stable at Nle 22.5561/$, resulting in overall market price stability. Fertilizer demand remained relatively low as the dry season persisted, with the wet season expected to commence in mid-April, signaling the start of farming activities and a gradual increase in fertilizer demand. However, the slow onset of the rainy season in April led to moderate fertilizer demand nationwide, keeping prices unchanged at retail levels. As farming activities ramp up in late April or early May, it is anticipated that fertilizer demand will rise, potentially driving up prices. The unevenness of fertilizer prices persists across the country, with the Northern province experiencing relatively lower prices compared to the Western Area, averaging 20% less. Diammonium Phosphate prices remain high in the Western Area but notably cheaper in the North and South. Despite availability across Sierra Leone, fertilizer prices are primarily determined by import costs, with factors such as proximity to the Port of Freetown and neighboring Guinea influencing regional distribution.

Togo: In April, Togo experienced a surplus of fertilizer due to the government’s mobilization efforts under the subsidy program. Over 100,000 tons of fertilizer, including urea and NPK 15-15-15, were allocated, surpassing agricultural season forecasts by 100%. With 96,000 tons stocked in designated stores across the country, the private sector also imported additional fertilizer. Despite low demand caused by erratic rainfall, purchases are expected to rise gradually as agricultural activities resume. Subsidized fertilizer prices have remained stable, with urea and NPK 15-15-15 priced at $30 per 50 kg bag, while NPK 12-20-18 +5S +1B is priced at $23 per 50 kg bag. On the open market, NPK 4-2-2 is available at $30 per 50 kg bag.

Availability and Affordability: In April, the fertilizer markets across West Africa exhibit varied pricing patterns at retail outlets. Prices have generally remained steady, although some farmers express concerns about affordability hindering their purchasing capacity. Despite affordability challenges in certain countries, the overall availability of fertilizers remains steady, with no notable reports of shortages. This mixed pricing trend is anticipated to persist into the upcoming year.

Distribution: Fertilizer distribution in West Africa is gradually returning to normalcy, marking a positive shift as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict diminishes. Most fertilizer ports and border crossings are now operational, indicating improved conditions across the region. Despite ongoing security challenges in Nigeria’s northeastern region, there is optimism with the lifting of various sanctions in Niger by ECOWAS. Landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have demonstrated resilience by utilizing ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a consistent supply chain. This adaptability highlights the agricultural sector’s ability to effectively navigate obstacles. Overall, the stabilization of distribution channels in the region bodes well for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. While localized challenges persist, projections suggest stability and continuity in the vital fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.

Overall market risk: In West Africa, farmers in various countries are gearing up for the farming season as the onset of rain marks the beginning of agricultural activities. While fertilizer demand is expected to pick up as the season progresses, there has been a slight improvement in demand so far. Overall, there has been relative stability in fertilizer prices across the region, with some countries even experiencing a decrease in costs. However, Nigeria stands out with continuous price increases attributed to the local devaluation of the national currency. As of now, there are no reports of fertilizer scarcity in any West African countries. On the contrary, continuous fertilizer supplies and stocking are being reported, leading to a slight decrease in product costs in some areas. Moreover, there is smooth movement and supply of fertilizers across borders within the West African region.

Benin: In March 2024, Benin witnessed significant changes in the sale conditions of NPK 13-17-17 and NPK 14-18-18 fertilizers initiated by the cotton company, the primary mineral fertilizer supplier. These changes include limiting fertilizer allocation for food crops, requiring detailed farmer information for purchase validation, and a substantial 61% price increase for NPK 13-17-17 and NPK 14-18-18, now priced at $37 per 50 kg bag. This rise in prices has raised concerns among farmers regarding restricted access to fertilizers. Despite rising fertilizer demand due to the rainy season and agricultural preparations, these measures could potentially dampen demand, impacting crop yields and agricultural productivity, especially in central and southern regions. Although there is sufficient urea supply, the NPK stock covers only 37.5% of the expected quantity needed for the season, estimated at 120,000 tonnes for cotton and food crops. Additionally, limited availability of SSP fertilizer in shops reflects farmers’ unfamiliarity with its application.

Cote d’Ivoire: The Ivorian fertilizer market remains strong, supported by continuous supply from major importers, with about 80,000 tons of fertilizer imported by March 2024. Declining international prices are gradually affecting local prices, potentially restoring them to pre-Covid-19 levels and boosting demand for the 2024 crop year. Importers are preparing by increasing inventories and considering re-export opportunities to Burkina Faso and Mali to manage credit risks. Prices have been stable from February to March, with notable decreases compared to January. Additionally, the cotton sector secured 146,400 tons of fertilizer for the 2024 season, slightly lower than the previous year, with current prices at $28 for urea and $30 for NPK, pending adjustments for the upcoming season.

Ghana: The World Bank recently issued a procurement tender for Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA), aiming to purchase 27,876.65 metric tons of NPKs and 9,528.85 metric tons of urea. In March 2024, fertilizer prices saw a slight increase compared to the previous month. Ghana secured a shipment of 14,000 metric tons of European 15-15-15 fertilizer, soon to be loaded onto the port, while another vessel carrying blended 23-10-5 fertilizer has departed Europe and is expected to arrive in the second week of April. MoFA has initiated farmer registration for the Planting for Food and Jobs phase two (PFJ 2.0) program, targeting over 2 million farmers this year.

Liberia: As the main farming season approaches, land preparation is nearing completion nationwide, with 10-20% of seeds already planted. Despite farmers acknowledging the importance of fertilizers, sales remain low due to high costs, despite minor price reductions for TJAL fertilizers. This disparity is attributed to varying pricing strategies among agro-dealers. Many farmers refrain from purchasing fertilizers due to cost and reliance on donor assistance, leading to stagnant prices. Agro-dealers face increased market risks while awaiting government subsidies to ease prices. The gap between farmer demand and agro-dealer sales persists, prompting expectations of government intervention to reduce prices. Despite this, agro-dealers maintain sufficient fertilizer stocks to meet demand. Presently, subsidies are only provided to agro-dealers during port clearance, resulting in high prices for farmers.

Nigeria: Nigeria’s annual inflation rate is set to rise from 31.70% in February to 32.63% in March, driven by concerns over escalating fertilizer prices. With ex-factory prices undergoing further revisions, retail prices are on the ascent, likely impacting fertilizer consumption, particularly during the wet season farming period in the Southern and North-central regions. Despite recent reports of the naira strengthening against the dollar, persistently high raw material costs and the dollar-to-naira exchange rate pose ongoing challenges. These factors contribute to the continued increase in retail prices of fertilizer products, compounded by transportation costs. Nevertheless, there’s optimism regarding the availability of fertilizer raw materials for the upcoming farming season. The country’s primary importers plan to import additional vessels of key raw materials, aiming to bolster NPK production and supplement existing carryover stock into 2024.

Senegal: As of March 2024, Senegal’s fertilizer market remains stable, with a diverse range of fertilizers available across different regions. Government subsidies have led to a decrease in fertilizer prices, improving accessibility to both subsidized and non-subsidized fertilizers and enhancing agricultural productivity and food security. Analysis of fertilizer prices in various cities reveals significant diversity in both varieties and costs. For example, Urea prices range from 12,500 to 30,000 CFA francs for 50 kg bags, while NPK formulations vary from 13,000 to 45,000 CFA francs for 25 kg or 50 kg bags. Price fluctuations on the open market show a 13% decrease in NPK 15-15-15 and a 9% increase in NPK 15-10-10. Urea experienced a notable 19% decline, with other formulations showing moderate variations, reflecting market trends and the availability of subsidized fertilizers. The availability of diverse fertilizers in each city underscores specific agricultural needs, demonstrating a dynamic relationship between supply and demand across production areas.

Sierra Leone: Fertilizer sales in March 2024 have significantly dropped compared to the previous month, as reported by major importers like Seedtech, TJal, and Jamal Enterprises. Despite this, Mangara Agribusiness made a substantial Urea sale to Sunbird Bioenergy in Northern Sierra Leone, which utilizes Urea for various agricultural purposes. March in Sierra Leone typically witnesses high temperatures, leading to reduced farming activities and lower fertilizer demand, expected to persist until early April. Consequently, fertilizer prices are anticipated to remain stable or slightly decrease in certain regions due to the subdued demand from farmers.

Togo: In March 2024, there is an abundant supply of fertilizers in Togo, with 30,179 tons of subsidized fertilizers available across the country. Out of 230 designated stores, 225 have been stocked with approximately 22,000 tons, including 9,000 tons of urea and 13,000 tons of NPK 15-15-15. The remaining 5 stores in the northern region await supplies due to the delayed onset of the rainy season. Additionally, 8,179 tons of fertilizers, comprising 6,657 tons of urea and 1,522 tons of NPK 15-15-15, are stored in Lomé warehouses. Despite this surplus, the current demand remains low, with only 73 tons of fertilizer sold in March. Looking ahead to the 2024-2025 agricultural season, a total of 33,952 tons of fertilizer has been mobilized, including 29,202 tons of urea and 4,750 tons of NPK 15-15-15. Notably, the government holds 27,000 tons of urea, while private companies possess 6,952 tons, including 2,202 tons of urea and 4,750 tons of NPK 15-15-15. Prices for fertilizer for food crops, including urea and NPK 15-15-15, remain subsidized and unchanged, priced at $30 (or 18,000 FCFA) per 50 kg bag. Similarly, cotton-specific fertilizers like NPK 12-20-18 +5S +1B, including urea, remain stable at $23 (or 14,000 FCFA) per 50 kg bag. New subsidized prices are anticipated at the beginning of the 2024-2025 crop year.

Availability and Affordability: In West Africa, fertilizer markets demonstrate diverse pricing trends at retail levels in the month of March. Currency devaluation, notably in Nigeria, has resulted in significant price increases, especially for newly imported products. Conversely, regions with existing stock observe relatively stable or decreasing prices. While certain countries face affordability challenges, overall availability remains consistent, with no significant reports of shortages. This mixed pricing pattern is expected to continue in the coming year.

Distribution: Fertilizer distribution in West Africa is gradually returning to normalcy, signaling a positive shift as the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict diminish. Most fertilizer ports and border crossings are now operational, indicating improved conditions across the region. Despite ongoing security challenges in Nigeria’s northeastern region, there is optimism with the removal of various sanctions in Niger by ECOWAS. Landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have demonstrated resilience by leveraging ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a consistent supply chain. This adaptability underscores the agricultural sector’s capacity to navigate obstacles effectively. Overall, the stabilization of distribution channels in the region is promising for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. While localized challenges persist, projections indicate stability and continuity in the essential fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.

Overall market risk: In West Africa, the onset of rain signals the beginning of the agricultural season in several countries. However, contrary to expectations for the month under review, this has not caused significant fluctuations in fertilizer prices across most countries of the region. Instead, there has been a general notable decline in prices attributed to reduced demand. However, Nigeria stands out with record-high fertilizer prices, largely attributed to the devaluation of the Naira. Despite this, overall, there is a prevailing sense of price stability, affordability, and adequate availability of fertilizers across the region. Even in countries experiencing high prices, there have been no reports of product scarcity; rather, countries like Cote d’Ivoire, have observed market oversupply. Importantly, there have been no substantial reports of fertilizer shortages, with fertilizers remaining readily available in most reviewed countries. The lifting of sanctions in Niger offers hope for improved fertilizer supply, although there is currently no record of shortages. Moreover, there is smooth movement and supply of fertilizers across borders within the West African region.

Benin: In February 2024, nationwide fertilizer demand continued to decline while availability remained steady. Demand for urea and NPK decreased more in the north than in the central and southern regions, driven by low acquisition for yam seedlings in the north and crops like pineapple, maize, and vegetables in the center and south. The Cotton Development Corporation (SODECO) met all fertilizer orders, supplemented by imports from small-scale operators for specific crops. Government preventive measures ensured ample supply, with subsidized fertilizers covering national needs. Prices remained constant at $23 per 50 kg bag. Open market prices saw a 6% decrease, with fertilizers like urea, SSP, NPK 13-17-17, and NPK 14-18-18 sold for about $26 per 50 kg bag. Potassium sulfate prices stayed stable, ranging from $18 to $22.

Cote d’Ivoire: The fertilizer market is stabilizing after a dramatic 174% increase in imports in 2023, leading to significant reserves. Major importers have surplus stock, well above the national forecast, with reports of an additional 75,000 tonnes arriving in February. This oversupply ensures market coverage for the next two months. Consequently, fertilizer prices declined in February, with urea decreasing by 10% and NPK 15-15-15 and NPK 0-23-19 by 4%. This price decrease reflects the decline in import prices and government support, maintaining affordability for farmers.

Ghana: Fertilizer prices decreased in February 2024 due to reduced demand at agricultural dealerships, but they remain high for most farmers. Prices of most fertilizers remained stable, except for Ammonium Sulphate, which saw a 1% decrease. Agricultural dealerships nationwide have significant fertilizer inventories (availability) to meet farming community needs at the beginning of the farming season.

Liberia: The demand for fertilizers remains somewhat stable, but availability and pricing pose significant challenges to agro-dealers, influenced by their location and entry points nationwide. As we approach the main farming season, land preparation is nearly 70% complete, yet fertilizer demand is lower compared to previous months, with prices varying among dealers. In some regions, like the southeastern part of the country, land preparation is finished, awaiting the first rain for seeding, with expectations of high demand and lower prices aligning with the new government’s agenda. However, there is an imbalance in the farmer-to-agro-dealer ratio, with low sales for most dealers as farmers anticipate government intervention to reduce prices through subsidies. Projections for future price fluctuations hinge on new government regulations, policies, and fertilizer availability.

Nigeria: Rising fertilizer costs in Nigeria raise concerns about affordability for farmers, potentially impacting crop yields and food security. As dry-season farming continues and preparations for the wet season are underway, there’s a slight increase in farmer demand. However, the rising prices pose challenges for farmers to access essential inputs, which could significantly affect agricultural productivity and food availability. Factors contributing to the price hike include difficulty obtaining urea from factories, increased raw material costs, higher ex-factory prices, rising diesel and exchange rates, and inflation.

Senegal: In February 2024, demand for off-season fertilizers remains high, particularly for urea, NPK 15-10-10, and NPK 10-10-20 in market gardening areas like Niayes. Similarly, the onset of the irrigated rice season in the Valley has increased demand for DAP. To address seasonal fluctuations, the government has made over 180,500 tons of fertilizer available, ensuring continuous supply throughout the agricultural season. Additionally, 6,000 tonnes of DAP have been supplied to farmers during the shoulder season, contributing to stabilizing the fertilizer market. A public financial contribution of 40 billion CFA francs has reduced prices of subsidized fertilizers, returning them to pre-crisis levels. Main products are now sold at prices such as $21 for a 50 kg bag of urea, $13 for NPK 6-20-10, and $18 for NPK 15-15-15. On the open market, prices fluctuated differently in January and February, with slight decreases for NPK 15-15-15 and NPK 15-10-10, and slight increases for urea, NPK 6-20-10, and NPK 10-10-20, attributed to subsidized fertilizer availability and downward international price trends causing market distortions.

Sierra Leone: In early February 2024, fertilizer sales were moderately high compared to the previous month, particularly in the Western Area. However, sales slowed in the latter half of the month as the dry season settled in Sierra Leone, leading to decreased demand from vegetable farmers. This trend is expected to continue until April 2024. While moderate demand is anticipated from small and large-scale cash crop farmers in the North and South, overall fertilizer demand is projected to be moderately low in the Northern and Eastern regions, where vegetable farming is prevalent. Consequently, prices are expected to remain stable or experience a moderate drop in some areas due to declining demand among vegetable farmers. Prices vary across the country, with the Northern province generally having more reasonable prices compared to the Western Area, where prices are higher. Diammonium Phosphate prices notably increased in February 2024. It’s important to note that all mineral fertilizers, including Urea and NPK, are imported into Sierra Leone, with prices determined by import costs, though other factors contribute to price discrepancies. Various fertilizers, including NPK, Urea, DAP, and organic fertilizers, are available across Sierra Leone, with the Western Area having the largest share.

Togo: The fertilizer market remains stable with abundant supply, supported by the distribution of subsidized fertilizers. From January to February, government structures received 33,952 tons of fertilizers, covering the total order of 173,000 tons. In February, an additional 28,819 tonnes of fertilizer were made available, meeting current demand, particularly for off-season crops. A total of 97,684 tonnes of fertilizer have been distributed, fully covering the annual forecast, with nearly 100,000 tons still available for the next three months. Prices remain unchanged for food crops and cotton-specific fertilizers at $30 and $23 per 50 kg bag, respectively. Private companies focus on limited sales of liquid mineral fertilizers and organic fertilizers. In February, the most common product available is NPK 4-2-2, sold at $30 per 50 kg bag.

Availability and Affordability: Across West Africa, fertilizer markets continue to exhibit varied pricing dynamics at retail levels. Recent currency devaluation has led to major price hikes in some countries like Nigeria, particularly for newly imported products, while regions with existing stock experience more stable pricing. Despite some affordability challenges in specific countries, overall availability remains assured, with no major reports of acute shortages. This mixed pricing trend is anticipated to persist into the upcoming year.

Distribution: Fertilizer distribution in West Africa is rebounding to normalcy, signaling a positive trend as the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict wane. Most fertilizer ports and border crossings are now operational, indicating improved conditions. Challenges persist in Nigeria’s northeastern region due to security issues, while hope rises for Niger as the various sanctions have been removed by ECOWAS. Landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have shown resilience by using ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a steady supply. This adaptability underscores the agricultural sector’s ability to overcome obstacles. Overall, the stabilization of distribution channels in the region bodes well for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. Despite localized challenges, projections suggest stability and continuity in the vital fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.

Overall market risk: The dry season in West African nations has caused a decline in demand for fertilizer, leading to varied pricing trends across different regions. While some areas experience stable prices, others face hikes due to currency devaluation affecting recently stocked commodities. Countries with older stock maintain more consistent pricing. This diverse trend is influenced by macroeconomic factors, global price trends, and the introduction of new fertilizer supplies to the region.

Crucially, there are still no substantial reports of fertilizer shortages, and fertilizers remain readily available in most countries within the reviewed region. Even in countries grappling with challenges such as conflict, exemplified by Niger, measures are being implemented to adapt to the situation, including the management of border closures. The establishment of “emerging” road channels originating from Nigeria is contributing to alleviating complete availability breakdowns in Niger. Furthermore, there is unhindered movement and supply of fertilizers across borders in the West African region.

Benin: Between December 2023 and January 2024, the fertilizer market in Benin experienced an overall decline in demand, despite a consistent supply. The specific demand for fertilizers varied by type and region, with a notable high demand for urea in the central and southern areas, contrasting with relatively lower demand in the northern part. This disparity can be attributed to limited agricultural activity during the period, with the north primarily engaged in harvesting cotton and preparing soil for yam and rice crops. Conversely, sustained demand in the central and southern regions was fueled by out-of-season food production and continuous cultivation of vegetables, especially leafy greens.A significant decline in demand for SSP fertilizer was observed nationwide, with stakeholders attributing this trend to its slow-release or insoluble nature, making application more challenging for growers compared to urea and NPK. Although NPKs were available and accessible during the reviewed period, their overall demand remained low across the country due to the agricultural calendar.

Cote d’Ivoire: The fertilizer market in Ivory Coast is abundantly supplied, because of the oversupply recorded in the previous year. Fertilizer prices in January 2024 remains stable due to reduced demand as a result of the ongoing dry season, when farmers are primarily engaged in harvesting and post-harvest operations. Major importers still hold substantial reserves, thanks to the substantial importation of 700,000 tonnes in 2023, significantly surpassing the national annual forecast of 350,000 tonnes. Anticipating a potential increase in demand, major importers are accumulating significant safety stocks, closely monitoring international price trends, and strategically placing their products for the upcoming 2024 crop year. The prospect of re-export, particularly to Burkina Faso, and notably to Mali since the opening of the San-Pedro to Bamako road, serves as an additional motivation.

Ghana: As the nation continues to contend with reduced demand during the ongoing dry season, national-level fertilizer prices remain stable, experiencing minimal fluctuations despite the presence of ample stocks. Despite expressing interest in participating in the second phase of the Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) initiative led by the agriculture ministry, fertilizer companies are currently awaiting the announcement of tender awards. The country imported approximately 25,000 metric tons of fertilizer in the final quarter of 2023. The ministry is actively involved in evaluating and awarding tenders for PFJ Phase II to suppliers, and as part of this ongoing process, additional documentation has been requested from the suppliers.

Liberia: Farming in Liberia is notably impacted by seasonal changes in rainfall and sunlight intensity. The demand for fertilizers is particularly high in counties known for high-yield crop production, such as Bong, Nimba, and Lofa, which collectively contribute to 50-60% of the country’s food production. Farm preparation activities extend until February-May/June, preceding the onset of the rainy season. However, nationwide, the demand and sale of fertilizers remain low until the agricultural calendar shifts to the rainy season. The availability of fertilizers among Agro-dealers also remains low until prompted by farmers’ demand, and farmers’ requests to purchase are generally limited during this period.

Niger: As of January 2024, Niger continues to grapple with an unchanged situation marked by ECOWAS sanctions, leading to border closures with neighboring countries like Nigeria, Benin, and Togo. These sanctions, affecting the transportation of fertilizer imports crucial for Nigerien agriculture, have prompted traders to adopt creative strategies. By unloading fertilizers in major border towns and delivering them in smaller quantities through various means of transport, a relative availability of urea, NPK 20-10-10, and NPK 15-15-15 has been maintained. However, DAP remains unavailable in several agricultural areas. The persistence of these challenges emphasizes the urgent need for sustainable solutions to ensure a stable fertilizer supply in Niger, despite the existing sanctions and restrictions.

Nigeria: During the ongoing nationwide dry season, there is currently a low demand and utilization of fertilizer. However, agrodealers foresee an imminent increase in demand as farmers gear up for dry season farming. It’s noteworthy that dry-season farming involves a minority of farmers, constituting less than 10% nationwide, with the majority engaged in rain-fed agriculture. The focal point for heightened demand and supply during this period is expected to be in the northern region, where dry-season farming is more prevalent. Anticipating a surge in demand for dry season farming in the upcoming months, there is a potential for price increases driven by increased demand. Presently, fertilizer prices in the market remain relatively stable due to limited demand from farmers across the country. Fertilizers are adequately available in the market, with some blenders continuing production to build up stock for the approaching season.

Senegal: In January 2024, much like in December 2023, the dynamic between fertilizer supply and demand varied across production regions. Notably, in regions like the Groundnut Basin and Casamance, there has been little change since the conclusion of the winter season, resulting in a significant decline in fertilizer demand. This decline prompted major suppliers to wrap up their distribution efforts, leading most temporary retailers to halt their operations. However, a minority of retailers still maintain stocks, selling them moderately to active vegetable producers. Conversely, robust demand persists in the market gardening areas of Niayes, particularly for urea, NPK 15-10-10, and NPK 10-10-20. In the Valley, the start of the irrigated rice season has revitalized demand for DAP. In anticipation of these fluctuations, government measures implemented at the season’s outset, providing over 180,500 tonnes of fertilizer, ensure continuous availability throughout the season.

Sierra Leone: In the month under review, the fertilizer market in Sierra Leone has displayed a gradual improvement compared to the preceding month. Major fertilizer importers have reported slightly improved sales in January 2024, witnessing a steady but gradual increase in demand from fertilizer retailers. Despite the typically low fertilizer demand during the dry season, vegetable growers in the Western, Northern, and Eastern provinces continue to show moderate usage.Importers and retailers anticipate a sustained increase in demand as vegetable farmers prepare for dry-season vegetable farming. The Northern and Eastern regions, significant players in the vegetable markets, are expected to drive elevated fertilizer demand, potentially leading to price increases. Presently, fertilizer prices exhibit irregular variations across the country, with the Northern province having more affordable prices than other regions. It’s crucial to note that all mineral fertilizers, including Urea and NPK, are imported into Sierra Leone, and their prices are influenced by import costs. Fertilizers are generally available in all districts, although quantities may vary.

Togo: The beginning of 2024 mirrors the conclusion of 2023, characterized by a notable decline in fertilizer demand despite an ample supply. This decrease in demand is attributed to the transition from the rainy season to the dry season nationwide. During this period, farmers procure limited amounts of fertilizer, focusing primarily on irrigated crops such as vegetables, rice, fresh maize, and groundnuts. On the supply front, the government has increased its orders under the subsidy program to ensure a consistent availability of fertilizer throughout the crop year. Out of the 173,000 tons of fertilizer ordered, 139,048 tons have already been received, comprising 46,798 tons of urea and 92,250 tons of NPK 15-15-15. This government-supported fertilizer stock is accessible across the country, fully catering to the needs of farmers, with a uniform subsidy of 42% of the cost price for the entire available quantity.

Availability and Affordability: In West Africa, the fertilizer markets present a diverse pricing outlook across retail markets. Local currency prices have slightly increased due to currency devaluation, especially for recently imported products, whereas markets with existing stock maintain more stable conditions. Despite affordability concerns in certain countries, there is a general assurance of availability, and there are no significant reports of severe shortages. This mixed price trend is expected to continue into the new year.

Distribution: In West Africa, fertilizer distribution has largely returned to normal, reflecting a positive shift as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict diminishes. Most fertilizer ports and border crossings are now operational, indicating improved conditions. However, challenges persist in Nigeria’s northeastern region due to security concerns, and Niger faces import sanctions following a coup, complicating distribution efforts. Despite these hurdles, landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have displayed resilience by utilizing ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a consistent supply. This adaptability highlights the agricultural sector’s resourcefulness in overcoming obstacles.

The stabilization of distribution channels in the region presents a promising outlook for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. Despite localized challenges, overall projections suggest stability and continuity in the crucial fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.

Overall market risk: In West African nations, the current scenario of fertilizer pricing reflects a decrease in demand due to the ongoing dry season in most regions. Consequently, fertilizer prices display diverse trends across various geographical areas. Challenges associated with currency devaluation have resulted in local currency price increases for newly stocked commodities, whereas countries with older stock are experiencing more stable pricing patterns. This varied trend is anticipated to persist, aligning with macroeconomic factors, global price trends, and the introduction of new fertilizer supplies to the region.

Importantly, there are no substantial reports of fertilizer shortages, and fertilizers remain accessible in the majority of countries in this reviewed region. Even in countries facing challenges such as conflict, as seen in Niger, adaptations to the situation, including managing border closures, are underway. The development of “emerging” road channels from Nigeria is playing a role in mitigating complete availability breakdowns. Additionally, there is unrestricted movement and supply of fertilizers across borders in this region.

Cote d’Ivoire: Fertilizer imports for the current year have surged to a record-breaking 700,000 tons, double the previous year’s total and well beyond the estimated annual demand of 350,000 tons. Despite a brief dip in August and September, imports rebounded, exceeding 60,000 tons in October and reaching over 70,000 tons by mid-December. Major importers, anticipating increased demand, have amassed substantial inventories, closely monitoring global price trends. Although sales are slow due to reduced demand post-harvest, major importers maintain ample reserves for the next three months. Despite the stable fertilizer prices between November and December, there has been a decrease in average prices compared to October.

Ghana: As the year concludes in December, there is a noticeable reduction in agricultural activities across the country. Fertilizer imports have experienced a significant decline, with a 60% reduction in the first half of 2023 compared to the previous year, and a further drop in the latter half, resulting in an overall 68% decrease for the entire year. This decline is primarily attributed to the discontinuation of fertilizer subsidies as part of the Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) phase I initiative. Notably, Parliament has approved an $800 million loan for the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) to procure 47% of the anticipated 850,000 metric tons of cocoa beans from farmers in the upcoming 2023/2024 season.

Nigeria: During the ongoing nationwide dry season, there is currently a low demand and utilization of fertilizer. However, agrodealers foresee an imminent increase in demand as farmers gear up for dry season farming. It’s noteworthy that dry-season farming involves a minority of farmers, constituting less than 10% nationwide, with the majority engaged in rain-fed agriculture. The focal point for heightened demand and supply during this period is expected to be in the northern region, where dry-season farming is more prevalent. Anticipating a surge in demand for dry season farming in the upcoming months, there is a potential for price increases driven by increased demand. Presently, fertilizer prices in the market remain relatively stable due to limited demand from farmers across the country. Fertilizers are adequately available in the market, with some blenders continuing production to build up stock for the approaching season.

Senegal: In December, the country continued to successfully navigate potential fertilizer supply challenges, maintaining resilience through effective preparation for the agricultural season. Adequate production and imports ensured a robust response to increased demand from the fertilizer subsidy program, with the government supplying over 180,500 tons of fertilizer. This proactive approach prevented shortages, met farmers’ needs, and upheld market stability.

Regionally, dynamics between supply and demand varied, with decreased fertilizer demand in rain-fed regions like the Groundnut Basin and Casamance due to the conclusion of the rainy season. Large suppliers concluded distribution farming season, and temporary stores shifted focus to other activities. However, demand remained strong in market gardening areas for urea, NPK 15-10-10, and NPK 10-10-20, while the start of the irrigated rice season in the Valley revived demand for DAP. Despite these fluctuations, measures implemented at the beginning of the season ensured sufficient fertilizer availability and relative price stability.

In Togo, Between November and December, there was a notable decrease in fertilizer demand in the market, primarily attributed to the conclusion of the rainy season nationwide and the transition to the dry season. Currently, most regions are engaged in the harvest and post-harvest phases. However, in the southern region, off-season crops, particularly focused on vegetable cultivation and irrigated rice production, continue to drive fertilizer demand. Despite this localized recovery in demand, the market remains stable due to an ample supply.

To ensure consistent availability throughout the crop year, the government, under its subsidy program, has significantly increased orders, mobilizing a total volume of 151,308 tons, surpassing the annual forecast of 85,000 tons. This surplus, including 58,808 tons of urea and 92,500 tons of NPK 15-15-15, is strategically distributed across the country, benefiting from a widespread subsidy of 42% of the cost price for the entire quantity available.

Availability and Affordability: Overall, the fertilizer markets in West Africa display a varied price outlook across most retail markets. Currency devaluation has contributed to a marginal rise in local currency prices, particularly for recently imported products, while markets with existing stock have maintained more stable outlooks. While affordability concerns linger in specific countries, there is a widespread assurance of availability, and no significant reports of severe shortages have surfaced. This mixed price trend is anticipated to persist into the new year.

Distribution: In West Africa, fertilizer distribution has largely normalized, indicating a positive shift as the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict lessen. Most fertilizer ports and border crossings are operational, signaling improved conditions. However, challenges persist in Nigeria’s northeastern region due to security concerns, and Niger faces import sanctions after a coup, complicating distribution efforts. Despite these challenges, landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have demonstrated resilience by utilizing ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a steady supply. This adaptability underscores the agricultural sector’s resourcefulness in overcoming obstacles. The stabilization of distribution channels in the region offers a promising outlook for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. Despite localized challenges, the overall projections indicate stability and continuity in the crucial fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.