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Overall market risk: In West Africa, the onset of rain signals the beginning of the agricultural season in several countries. However, contrary to expectations for the month under review, this has not caused significant fluctuations in fertilizer prices across most countries of the region. Instead, there has been a general notable decline in prices attributed to reduced demand. However, Nigeria stands out with record-high fertilizer prices, largely attributed to the devaluation of the Naira. Despite this, overall, there is a prevailing sense of price stability, affordability, and adequate availability of fertilizers across the region. Even in countries experiencing high prices, there have been no reports of product scarcity; rather, countries like Cote d’Ivoire, have observed market oversupply. Importantly, there have been no substantial reports of fertilizer shortages, with fertilizers remaining readily available in most reviewed countries. The lifting of sanctions in Niger offers hope for improved fertilizer supply, although there is currently no record of shortages. Moreover, there is smooth movement and supply of fertilizers across borders within the West African region.

Benin: In February 2024, nationwide fertilizer demand continued to decline while availability remained steady. Demand for urea and NPK decreased more in the north than in the central and southern regions, driven by low acquisition for yam seedlings in the north and crops like pineapple, maize, and vegetables in the center and south. The Cotton Development Corporation (SODECO) met all fertilizer orders, supplemented by imports from small-scale operators for specific crops. Government preventive measures ensured ample supply, with subsidized fertilizers covering national needs. Prices remained constant at $23 per 50 kg bag. Open market prices saw a 6% decrease, with fertilizers like urea, SSP, NPK 13-17-17, and NPK 14-18-18 sold for about $26 per 50 kg bag. Potassium sulfate prices stayed stable, ranging from $18 to $22.

Cote d’Ivoire: The fertilizer market is stabilizing after a dramatic 174% increase in imports in 2023, leading to significant reserves. Major importers have surplus stock, well above the national forecast, with reports of an additional 75,000 tonnes arriving in February. This oversupply ensures market coverage for the next two months. Consequently, fertilizer prices declined in February, with urea decreasing by 10% and NPK 15-15-15 and NPK 0-23-19 by 4%. This price decrease reflects the decline in import prices and government support, maintaining affordability for farmers.

Ghana: Fertilizer prices decreased in February 2024 due to reduced demand at agricultural dealerships, but they remain high for most farmers. Prices of most fertilizers remained stable, except for Ammonium Sulphate, which saw a 1% decrease. Agricultural dealerships nationwide have significant fertilizer inventories (availability) to meet farming community needs at the beginning of the farming season.

Liberia: The demand for fertilizers remains somewhat stable, but availability and pricing pose significant challenges to agro-dealers, influenced by their location and entry points nationwide. As we approach the main farming season, land preparation is nearly 70% complete, yet fertilizer demand is lower compared to previous months, with prices varying among dealers. In some regions, like the southeastern part of the country, land preparation is finished, awaiting the first rain for seeding, with expectations of high demand and lower prices aligning with the new government’s agenda. However, there is an imbalance in the farmer-to-agro-dealer ratio, with low sales for most dealers as farmers anticipate government intervention to reduce prices through subsidies. Projections for future price fluctuations hinge on new government regulations, policies, and fertilizer availability.

Nigeria: Rising fertilizer costs in Nigeria raise concerns about affordability for farmers, potentially impacting crop yields and food security. As dry-season farming continues and preparations for the wet season are underway, there’s a slight increase in farmer demand. However, the rising prices pose challenges for farmers to access essential inputs, which could significantly affect agricultural productivity and food availability. Factors contributing to the price hike include difficulty obtaining urea from factories, increased raw material costs, higher ex-factory prices, rising diesel and exchange rates, and inflation.

Senegal: In February 2024, demand for off-season fertilizers remains high, particularly for urea, NPK 15-10-10, and NPK 10-10-20 in market gardening areas like Niayes. Similarly, the onset of the irrigated rice season in the Valley has increased demand for DAP. To address seasonal fluctuations, the government has made over 180,500 tons of fertilizer available, ensuring continuous supply throughout the agricultural season. Additionally, 6,000 tonnes of DAP have been supplied to farmers during the shoulder season, contributing to stabilizing the fertilizer market. A public financial contribution of 40 billion CFA francs has reduced prices of subsidized fertilizers, returning them to pre-crisis levels. Main products are now sold at prices such as $21 for a 50 kg bag of urea, $13 for NPK 6-20-10, and $18 for NPK 15-15-15. On the open market, prices fluctuated differently in January and February, with slight decreases for NPK 15-15-15 and NPK 15-10-10, and slight increases for urea, NPK 6-20-10, and NPK 10-10-20, attributed to subsidized fertilizer availability and downward international price trends causing market distortions.

Sierra Leone: In early February 2024, fertilizer sales were moderately high compared to the previous month, particularly in the Western Area. However, sales slowed in the latter half of the month as the dry season settled in Sierra Leone, leading to decreased demand from vegetable farmers. This trend is expected to continue until April 2024. While moderate demand is anticipated from small and large-scale cash crop farmers in the North and South, overall fertilizer demand is projected to be moderately low in the Northern and Eastern regions, where vegetable farming is prevalent. Consequently, prices are expected to remain stable or experience a moderate drop in some areas due to declining demand among vegetable farmers. Prices vary across the country, with the Northern province generally having more reasonable prices compared to the Western Area, where prices are higher. Diammonium Phosphate prices notably increased in February 2024. It’s important to note that all mineral fertilizers, including Urea and NPK, are imported into Sierra Leone, with prices determined by import costs, though other factors contribute to price discrepancies. Various fertilizers, including NPK, Urea, DAP, and organic fertilizers, are available across Sierra Leone, with the Western Area having the largest share.

Togo: The fertilizer market remains stable with abundant supply, supported by the distribution of subsidized fertilizers. From January to February, government structures received 33,952 tons of fertilizers, covering the total order of 173,000 tons. In February, an additional 28,819 tonnes of fertilizer were made available, meeting current demand, particularly for off-season crops. A total of 97,684 tonnes of fertilizer have been distributed, fully covering the annual forecast, with nearly 100,000 tons still available for the next three months. Prices remain unchanged for food crops and cotton-specific fertilizers at $30 and $23 per 50 kg bag, respectively. Private companies focus on limited sales of liquid mineral fertilizers and organic fertilizers. In February, the most common product available is NPK 4-2-2, sold at $30 per 50 kg bag.

Availability and Affordability: Across West Africa, fertilizer markets continue to exhibit varied pricing dynamics at retail levels. Recent currency devaluation has led to major price hikes in some countries like Nigeria, particularly for newly imported products, while regions with existing stock experience more stable pricing. Despite some affordability challenges in specific countries, overall availability remains assured, with no major reports of acute shortages. This mixed pricing trend is anticipated to persist into the upcoming year.

Distribution: Fertilizer distribution in West Africa is rebounding to normalcy, signaling a positive trend as the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict wane. Most fertilizer ports and border crossings are now operational, indicating improved conditions. Challenges persist in Nigeria’s northeastern region due to security issues, while hope rises for Niger as the various sanctions have been removed by ECOWAS. Landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have shown resilience by using ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a steady supply. This adaptability underscores the agricultural sector’s ability to overcome obstacles. Overall, the stabilization of distribution channels in the region bodes well for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. Despite localized challenges, projections suggest stability and continuity in the vital fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.

Overall market risk: The dry season in West African nations has caused a decline in demand for fertilizer, leading to varied pricing trends across different regions. While some areas experience stable prices, others face hikes due to currency devaluation affecting recently stocked commodities. Countries with older stock maintain more consistent pricing. This diverse trend is influenced by macroeconomic factors, global price trends, and the introduction of new fertilizer supplies to the region.

Crucially, there are still no substantial reports of fertilizer shortages, and fertilizers remain readily available in most countries within the reviewed region. Even in countries grappling with challenges such as conflict, exemplified by Niger, measures are being implemented to adapt to the situation, including the management of border closures. The establishment of “emerging” road channels originating from Nigeria is contributing to alleviating complete availability breakdowns in Niger. Furthermore, there is unhindered movement and supply of fertilizers across borders in the West African region.

Benin: Between December 2023 and January 2024, the fertilizer market in Benin experienced an overall decline in demand, despite a consistent supply. The specific demand for fertilizers varied by type and region, with a notable high demand for urea in the central and southern areas, contrasting with relatively lower demand in the northern part. This disparity can be attributed to limited agricultural activity during the period, with the north primarily engaged in harvesting cotton and preparing soil for yam and rice crops. Conversely, sustained demand in the central and southern regions was fueled by out-of-season food production and continuous cultivation of vegetables, especially leafy greens.A significant decline in demand for SSP fertilizer was observed nationwide, with stakeholders attributing this trend to its slow-release or insoluble nature, making application more challenging for growers compared to urea and NPK. Although NPKs were available and accessible during the reviewed period, their overall demand remained low across the country due to the agricultural calendar.

Cote d’Ivoire: The fertilizer market in Ivory Coast is abundantly supplied, because of the oversupply recorded in the previous year. Fertilizer prices in January 2024 remains stable due to reduced demand as a result of the ongoing dry season, when farmers are primarily engaged in harvesting and post-harvest operations. Major importers still hold substantial reserves, thanks to the substantial importation of 700,000 tonnes in 2023, significantly surpassing the national annual forecast of 350,000 tonnes. Anticipating a potential increase in demand, major importers are accumulating significant safety stocks, closely monitoring international price trends, and strategically placing their products for the upcoming 2024 crop year. The prospect of re-export, particularly to Burkina Faso, and notably to Mali since the opening of the San-Pedro to Bamako road, serves as an additional motivation.

Ghana: As the nation continues to contend with reduced demand during the ongoing dry season, national-level fertilizer prices remain stable, experiencing minimal fluctuations despite the presence of ample stocks. Despite expressing interest in participating in the second phase of the Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) initiative led by the agriculture ministry, fertilizer companies are currently awaiting the announcement of tender awards. The country imported approximately 25,000 metric tons of fertilizer in the final quarter of 2023. The ministry is actively involved in evaluating and awarding tenders for PFJ Phase II to suppliers, and as part of this ongoing process, additional documentation has been requested from the suppliers.

Liberia: Farming in Liberia is notably impacted by seasonal changes in rainfall and sunlight intensity. The demand for fertilizers is particularly high in counties known for high-yield crop production, such as Bong, Nimba, and Lofa, which collectively contribute to 50-60% of the country’s food production. Farm preparation activities extend until February-May/June, preceding the onset of the rainy season. However, nationwide, the demand and sale of fertilizers remain low until the agricultural calendar shifts to the rainy season. The availability of fertilizers among Agro-dealers also remains low until prompted by farmers’ demand, and farmers’ requests to purchase are generally limited during this period.

Niger: As of January 2024, Niger continues to grapple with an unchanged situation marked by ECOWAS sanctions, leading to border closures with neighboring countries like Nigeria, Benin, and Togo. These sanctions, affecting the transportation of fertilizer imports crucial for Nigerien agriculture, have prompted traders to adopt creative strategies. By unloading fertilizers in major border towns and delivering them in smaller quantities through various means of transport, a relative availability of urea, NPK 20-10-10, and NPK 15-15-15 has been maintained. However, DAP remains unavailable in several agricultural areas. The persistence of these challenges emphasizes the urgent need for sustainable solutions to ensure a stable fertilizer supply in Niger, despite the existing sanctions and restrictions.

Nigeria: During the ongoing nationwide dry season, there is currently a low demand and utilization of fertilizer. However, agrodealers foresee an imminent increase in demand as farmers gear up for dry season farming. It’s noteworthy that dry-season farming involves a minority of farmers, constituting less than 10% nationwide, with the majority engaged in rain-fed agriculture. The focal point for heightened demand and supply during this period is expected to be in the northern region, where dry-season farming is more prevalent. Anticipating a surge in demand for dry season farming in the upcoming months, there is a potential for price increases driven by increased demand. Presently, fertilizer prices in the market remain relatively stable due to limited demand from farmers across the country. Fertilizers are adequately available in the market, with some blenders continuing production to build up stock for the approaching season.

Senegal: In January 2024, much like in December 2023, the dynamic between fertilizer supply and demand varied across production regions. Notably, in regions like the Groundnut Basin and Casamance, there has been little change since the conclusion of the winter season, resulting in a significant decline in fertilizer demand. This decline prompted major suppliers to wrap up their distribution efforts, leading most temporary retailers to halt their operations. However, a minority of retailers still maintain stocks, selling them moderately to active vegetable producers. Conversely, robust demand persists in the market gardening areas of Niayes, particularly for urea, NPK 15-10-10, and NPK 10-10-20. In the Valley, the start of the irrigated rice season has revitalized demand for DAP. In anticipation of these fluctuations, government measures implemented at the season’s outset, providing over 180,500 tonnes of fertilizer, ensure continuous availability throughout the season.

Sierra Leone: In the month under review, the fertilizer market in Sierra Leone has displayed a gradual improvement compared to the preceding month. Major fertilizer importers have reported slightly improved sales in January 2024, witnessing a steady but gradual increase in demand from fertilizer retailers. Despite the typically low fertilizer demand during the dry season, vegetable growers in the Western, Northern, and Eastern provinces continue to show moderate usage.Importers and retailers anticipate a sustained increase in demand as vegetable farmers prepare for dry-season vegetable farming. The Northern and Eastern regions, significant players in the vegetable markets, are expected to drive elevated fertilizer demand, potentially leading to price increases. Presently, fertilizer prices exhibit irregular variations across the country, with the Northern province having more affordable prices than other regions. It’s crucial to note that all mineral fertilizers, including Urea and NPK, are imported into Sierra Leone, and their prices are influenced by import costs. Fertilizers are generally available in all districts, although quantities may vary.

Togo: The beginning of 2024 mirrors the conclusion of 2023, characterized by a notable decline in fertilizer demand despite an ample supply. This decrease in demand is attributed to the transition from the rainy season to the dry season nationwide. During this period, farmers procure limited amounts of fertilizer, focusing primarily on irrigated crops such as vegetables, rice, fresh maize, and groundnuts. On the supply front, the government has increased its orders under the subsidy program to ensure a consistent availability of fertilizer throughout the crop year. Out of the 173,000 tons of fertilizer ordered, 139,048 tons have already been received, comprising 46,798 tons of urea and 92,250 tons of NPK 15-15-15. This government-supported fertilizer stock is accessible across the country, fully catering to the needs of farmers, with a uniform subsidy of 42% of the cost price for the entire available quantity.

Availability and Affordability: In West Africa, the fertilizer markets present a diverse pricing outlook across retail markets. Local currency prices have slightly increased due to currency devaluation, especially for recently imported products, whereas markets with existing stock maintain more stable conditions. Despite affordability concerns in certain countries, there is a general assurance of availability, and there are no significant reports of severe shortages. This mixed price trend is expected to continue into the new year.

Distribution: In West Africa, fertilizer distribution has largely returned to normal, reflecting a positive shift as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict diminishes. Most fertilizer ports and border crossings are now operational, indicating improved conditions. However, challenges persist in Nigeria’s northeastern region due to security concerns, and Niger faces import sanctions following a coup, complicating distribution efforts. Despite these hurdles, landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have displayed resilience by utilizing ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a consistent supply. This adaptability highlights the agricultural sector’s resourcefulness in overcoming obstacles.

The stabilization of distribution channels in the region presents a promising outlook for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. Despite localized challenges, overall projections suggest stability and continuity in the crucial fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.

Overall market risk: In West African nations, the current scenario of fertilizer pricing reflects a decrease in demand due to the ongoing dry season in most regions. Consequently, fertilizer prices display diverse trends across various geographical areas. Challenges associated with currency devaluation have resulted in local currency price increases for newly stocked commodities, whereas countries with older stock are experiencing more stable pricing patterns. This varied trend is anticipated to persist, aligning with macroeconomic factors, global price trends, and the introduction of new fertilizer supplies to the region.

Importantly, there are no substantial reports of fertilizer shortages, and fertilizers remain accessible in the majority of countries in this reviewed region. Even in countries facing challenges such as conflict, as seen in Niger, adaptations to the situation, including managing border closures, are underway. The development of “emerging” road channels from Nigeria is playing a role in mitigating complete availability breakdowns. Additionally, there is unrestricted movement and supply of fertilizers across borders in this region.

Cote d’Ivoire: Fertilizer imports for the current year have surged to a record-breaking 700,000 tons, double the previous year’s total and well beyond the estimated annual demand of 350,000 tons. Despite a brief dip in August and September, imports rebounded, exceeding 60,000 tons in October and reaching over 70,000 tons by mid-December. Major importers, anticipating increased demand, have amassed substantial inventories, closely monitoring global price trends. Although sales are slow due to reduced demand post-harvest, major importers maintain ample reserves for the next three months. Despite the stable fertilizer prices between November and December, there has been a decrease in average prices compared to October.

Ghana: As the year concludes in December, there is a noticeable reduction in agricultural activities across the country. Fertilizer imports have experienced a significant decline, with a 60% reduction in the first half of 2023 compared to the previous year, and a further drop in the latter half, resulting in an overall 68% decrease for the entire year. This decline is primarily attributed to the discontinuation of fertilizer subsidies as part of the Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) phase I initiative. Notably, Parliament has approved an $800 million loan for the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) to procure 47% of the anticipated 850,000 metric tons of cocoa beans from farmers in the upcoming 2023/2024 season.

Nigeria: During the ongoing nationwide dry season, there is currently a low demand and utilization of fertilizer. However, agrodealers foresee an imminent increase in demand as farmers gear up for dry season farming. It’s noteworthy that dry-season farming involves a minority of farmers, constituting less than 10% nationwide, with the majority engaged in rain-fed agriculture. The focal point for heightened demand and supply during this period is expected to be in the northern region, where dry-season farming is more prevalent. Anticipating a surge in demand for dry season farming in the upcoming months, there is a potential for price increases driven by increased demand. Presently, fertilizer prices in the market remain relatively stable due to limited demand from farmers across the country. Fertilizers are adequately available in the market, with some blenders continuing production to build up stock for the approaching season.

Senegal: In December, the country continued to successfully navigate potential fertilizer supply challenges, maintaining resilience through effective preparation for the agricultural season. Adequate production and imports ensured a robust response to increased demand from the fertilizer subsidy program, with the government supplying over 180,500 tons of fertilizer. This proactive approach prevented shortages, met farmers’ needs, and upheld market stability.

Regionally, dynamics between supply and demand varied, with decreased fertilizer demand in rain-fed regions like the Groundnut Basin and Casamance due to the conclusion of the rainy season. Large suppliers concluded distribution farming season, and temporary stores shifted focus to other activities. However, demand remained strong in market gardening areas for urea, NPK 15-10-10, and NPK 10-10-20, while the start of the irrigated rice season in the Valley revived demand for DAP. Despite these fluctuations, measures implemented at the beginning of the season ensured sufficient fertilizer availability and relative price stability.

In Togo, Between November and December, there was a notable decrease in fertilizer demand in the market, primarily attributed to the conclusion of the rainy season nationwide and the transition to the dry season. Currently, most regions are engaged in the harvest and post-harvest phases. However, in the southern region, off-season crops, particularly focused on vegetable cultivation and irrigated rice production, continue to drive fertilizer demand. Despite this localized recovery in demand, the market remains stable due to an ample supply.

To ensure consistent availability throughout the crop year, the government, under its subsidy program, has significantly increased orders, mobilizing a total volume of 151,308 tons, surpassing the annual forecast of 85,000 tons. This surplus, including 58,808 tons of urea and 92,500 tons of NPK 15-15-15, is strategically distributed across the country, benefiting from a widespread subsidy of 42% of the cost price for the entire quantity available.

Availability and Affordability: Overall, the fertilizer markets in West Africa display a varied price outlook across most retail markets. Currency devaluation has contributed to a marginal rise in local currency prices, particularly for recently imported products, while markets with existing stock have maintained more stable outlooks. While affordability concerns linger in specific countries, there is a widespread assurance of availability, and no significant reports of severe shortages have surfaced. This mixed price trend is anticipated to persist into the new year.

Distribution: In West Africa, fertilizer distribution has largely normalized, indicating a positive shift as the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict lessen. Most fertilizer ports and border crossings are operational, signaling improved conditions. However, challenges persist in Nigeria’s northeastern region due to security concerns, and Niger faces import sanctions after a coup, complicating distribution efforts. Despite these challenges, landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have demonstrated resilience by utilizing ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a steady supply. This adaptability underscores the agricultural sector’s resourcefulness in overcoming obstacles. The stabilization of distribution channels in the region offers a promising outlook for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. Despite localized challenges, the overall projections indicate stability and continuity in the crucial fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.

Overall market risk: The current state of fertilizer pricing in West African nations reflects a decreased demand due to the onset of the dry season in most regions. As a result, fertilizer prices have seen mixed trends in various geographies. Currency devaluation issues have resulted in rises in local currency prices for commodities for new stock with some countries having older stock eliciting stable trends. This mixed trend is expected to persist, aligning with the macro-economic, global price trends and fresh positioning of fertilizers into the region. There have been no major reports of fertilizer shortages, and fertilizers remain available in most of the countries in this region under review. Countries facing conflict issues like Niger continue to adapt to the situation, border closures etc. with “emerging” road channels from Nigeria ameliorating complete availability breakdown. Furthermore, there is an unrestricted movement and supply of fertilizers from country to country.

Cote d’Ivoire: The fertilizer market in Côte d’Ivoire has continued to sustain its stability, with a well-balanced supply and demand scenario. The recent conclusion of the main crop year has led to a decrease in demand, but the supply system, adept at adjusting to market needs, has ensured equilibrium. Importers in Côte d’Ivoire have been proactive, maintaining an impressive quantity of fertilizer in the market with a tonnage of fertilizer mobilized exceeding that of previous years.

Ghana: Fertilizer products are readily available at Agro Dealer shops nationwide. The prices have been relatively stable in some regions while dropping in other regions of the country. On November 3, the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) in Ghana initiated a tender for the purchase of 1,750 metric tons of NPKs and 875 metric tons of urea. The financing for this procurement is secured through a World Bank initiative specifically dedicated to obtaining NPK and urea.

Nigeria is currently in off-season as the dry season sets in most areas. This has led to a noticeable decrease in the blending of NPK fertilizer and a significant decline in farmers’ fertilizer demand. Agrodealers have chosen to keep NPK fertilizer prices stable, considering the limited demand from farmers. Interestingly, urea prices have gone up slightly in the market for the month in review. There is a substantial amount of fertilizer available in the country, ensuring an adequate supply for consumption during the dry season farming.

In Senegal, the agricultural market in the country has continued to maintain its stability, with a balanced supply and demand situation. Adequate preparations, including substantial fertilizer production, imports, and a successful subsidy program, ensured a consistent supply. Fertilizer prices remained stable due to an abundant supply of subsidized fertilizers and a decline in international prices.

Niger: Since the military coup in Niger on July 26, 2023, the situation in the country has experienced minor change, and ECOWAS sanctions remain in effect. The disruption in fertilizer supply persists due to border closures, causing congestion at the port of Cotonou. Fertilizer supply within Niger has significantly decreased, marked by a decline in official imports, and a substantial portion of the supply is now routed through informal channels. Although some fertilizer types are depleted, others, predominantly sourced from neighboring Nigeria continue finding their way into the country unofficially.

In Togo, the northern region saw minimal changes in agricultural activity as the cropping year approached its end, leading to a reduced demand for fertilizer. Meanwhile, the southern region experienced the start of the short rainy season, causing an uptick in fertilizer demand for vegetable and rice cultivation. This increased demand is well-managed, as the market benefits from ample supply and government-supported reserves strategically positioned throughout the country. Fertilizer prices remained stable throughout the year due to continued subsidies, with fixed prices for various types of fertilizers supporting both food and cotton crops. Overall, the government’s efforts contribute to the stability and accessibility of fertilizers in the market.

Availability and Affordability: In general, fertilizer markets in West Africa maintain a mixed price outlook across most retail markets. Currency devaluation on one hand has led to a slight increase in local currency prices, especially for fresh imports, markets with “older” stock have had more stable outlooks. Although concerns about affordability persist in certain countries, there is a widespread assurance of availability, and no reports of severe shortages have emerged. This mixed price trend is likely to continue into the new year.

Distribution: The distribution of fertilizers in West Africa has largely returned to normalcy, signaling a positive shift as the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict diminish. While most fertilizer ports and border crossings are operational, challenges persist in Nigeria’s northeastern region due to security concerns. Additionally, Niger faces import sanctions following a recent coup, complicating distribution. Despite setbacks, landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have shown resilience by using ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a steady supply. This adaptability reflects the agricultural sector’s resourcefulness. The “stabilization” of distribution channels in the region offers a promising outlook for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. Overall, the trajectory points towards stability and continuity in the vital fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.

Overall market risk: Demand for fertilizers in West African countries has seen a decline, primarily as a result of the conclusion of the main farming season. Consequently, fertilizer prices have experienced a general decrease throughout the region. It is anticipated that these prices will continue to decline in tandem with the decreasing international prices. Fortunately, there have been no reports of fertilizer shortages, and fertilizers remain readily available in all the countries under review, including Niger. This consistent availability in Niger is facilitated by the continuous flow of products through parallel routes. Furthermore, there is an unrestricted movement and supply of fertilizers from one country to another, except for Niger. Niger has faced sanctions imposed by ECOWAS following a coup d’état, which has disrupted the normal flow of goods and supplies.

Despite the overall decrease in prices, the West African region is still experiencing somewhat higher prices compared to previous years. However, on a general scale, prices have remained relatively stable in most countries, and there have been no reports of unavailability.

Cote d’Ivoire: The fertilizer market in Ivory Coast has maintained a state of stability, with no significant pressure on supply. This stability is attributed to a supply that adapts to the level of demand. The situation has been further influenced by a decline in demand following the recent conclusion of the main crop year. Importers in Ivory Coast have been proactive throughout the year, mobilizing an impressive quantity of fertilizer. In fact, the tonnage of fertilizer mobilized this year has exceeded the tonnage from the previous year by 71%. It appears that this stock of fertilizer has not yet been fully utilized. This surplus is expected to be more than sufficient to meet the fertilizer needs for the last two months of the year.

Ghana: Ghana is currently in its off-peak farming season, which started in September and is expected to continue until November. Fertilizer prices have remained steady in the open market, and there have been no reports of fertilizer shortages, due to reduced demand. The prices have been relatively stable in some region while dropping in other region of the country. The government have been preparing to make available cheaper and more available fertilizers for the next planting year through the planting for Food and Job initiative (phase II).

In Nigeria, Numerous farmers have already completed their fertilizer applications and are now in the process of harvesting their crops. This off-season period has led to a noticeable reduction in the blending of NPK fertilizers by producers and a substantial decrease in fertilizer demand among farmers. Fertilizer products, including urea and NPK, are generally well-stocked and readily available in the market. However, agro-dealers are currently facing the challenge of low demand from farmers. This situation has resulted in a consistent drop in fertilizer prices in the market. The information gathered indicates that there is an abundant supply of fertilizers in the country, especially urea. This abundance is a positive sign, ensuring there will be ample volumes of fertilizer available for dry-season farming, which is expected in the upcoming months.

In Senegal, fertilizer prices remained stable from September to October due to a combination of factors. The availability of subsidized fertilizers in the market and a decline in international fertilizer prices contributed to this stability. The fertilizer market in Senegal is running smoothly with consistent demand, and there are no significant supply issues. Senegal has made extensive preparations for the agricultural season, benefiting from local fertilizer production and substantial imports. Importers have increased their orders to ensure a steady fertilizer supply, and the government has played a key role in assuring farmers of fertilizer availability. Over 180,500 tons of fertilizer have been distributed through the subsidy program to support this assurance.

Niger: The situation in Niger has remained largely unchanged since the military coup on July 26, 2023, with ECOWAS sanctions still in effect. Fertilizer supply to Niger continues to be severely disrupted due to border closures, causing long lines of goods trucks and congestion at the port of Cotonou. The port authorities in Cotonou have temporarily suspended Nigerien supplies due to this congestion, leading to a buildup of containers. Fertilizer supply in Niger has seen a significant decline, with a reduction in official imports, and much of the supply now comes through informal channels. While stocks of certain fertilizers are depleted, there is an abundance of others, mainly sourced from neighboring Nigeria. Demand for fertilizers has increased with the start of the irrigated season, highlighting the need to address logistical challenges and border issues affecting fertilizer supply in Niger.

In Togo, Government-backed fertilizer reserves are strategically distributed across all regions of the country, ensuring that they can fully cater to the needs of farmers. It’s important to emphasize that, as part of the subsidy program, the government has increased its fertilizer orders to guarantee a plentiful supply during the growing season. However, in the northern region of the country, the primary agricultural season is winding down, leading to a noticeable decrease in fertilizer demand. In contrast, in the southern zone, the commencement of the short rainy season has sparked optimism for increased demand from farmers in this region. This heralds the start of renewed agricultural activities and a potential resurgence in the requirement for fertilizers.

Availability and Affordability: By and large, fertilizer markets in West Africa have largely regained their equilibrium, with prices remaining steady in the majority of retail markets, although a few exceptions exist. While affordability remains a prominent concern in specific countries, there is a general assurance of availability, and no reports of severe shortages have surfaced, even in Niger. This overall stability and continuous supply bode well for the agricultural sector in the region.

Distribution: The distribution of fertilizers has, for the most part, regained a sense of normalcy across West Africa, with the lingering effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict gradually waning. All fertilizer ports and border crossings are operational, except for Nigeria’s northeastern region, where security concerns continue to limit fertilizer movement, and Niger, which is facing import sanctions following a recent coup d’état. Landlocked countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso have found a workaround by utilizing ports in Cote d’Ivoire to facilitate their fertilizer imports, ensuring a steady supply of these vital agricultural inputs. This reestablishment of distribution channels is a positive development for the region’s agricultural sector.