Author: admin

Overall market risk: In December 2024, West Africa’s fertilizer market experienced varied trends influenced by seasonal and regional dynamics. Across the region, the market reflected weak demand due to ongoing harvest and post-harvest activities, although off-season crops like vegetables and rice kept fertilizer use steady in some locations. The start of the dry season farming in some areas supported fertilizer application. Subsidized fertilizers remained a key feature, with prices relatively stable across most countries, ensuring accessibility for farmers. 

There was smuggling of subsidized fertilizers, and currency fluctuations in some locations. Some middlemen leveraged favorable exchange rates for input purchases. Increased use of liquid fertilizers by vegetable growers highlighted changing farming practices. Logistical challenges and high costs persisted, despite government efforts to improve infrastructure and support smallholders in some of the locations. Meanwhile, dependency on imports left some markets vulnerable to global price shocks and logistical disruptions. 

Overall, the region showed resilience in ensuring fertilizer availability, but issues like affordability, smuggling, and infrastructural limitations require further attention to support sustainable agricultural growth.

Côte d’Ivoire: In December 2024, the fertilizer market remained inactive with low demand, due to ongoing harvest and post-harvest activities. Off-season crops, particularly market gardening, and irrigated crops, kept demand steady. The return of rains supported fertilizer application for off-season crops. Fertilizer supply remained sufficient, with imports surpassing 600,000 MT, well above the estimated annual demand of 350,000 MT. Fertilizer prices remained stable, with Urea at CFA 21,000 (35 USD) per 50kg, and NPK 15-15-15 at CFA 22,000 (37 USD). Cotton fertilizers also saw no price changes. Despite low demand, the supply chain remained robust, with main importers ensuring adequate stock levels. The impact of the Ukraine-Russia crisis was minimal, with alternative sourcing strategies maintaining a steady supply.

Gambia: December is a pivotal month in the agricultural calendar, marked by high trade activity and input purchases for dry-season rice and horticultural farming. Despite stable fertilizer prices at D1,100 per 50kg bag, the rising GMD exchange rate impacts affordability, while Senegalese buyers exploit cross-border price differences. The use of liquid fertilizers is increasing among vegetable growers.  Subsidized fertilizers remain accessible, with unsold stocks sufficient to meet dry-season demand, although smuggling through border markets persists. Nursery preparations for rice and vegetables are underway, supported by manure used by commercial farmers to meet export demands. Government initiatives and projects like ROOTS and GRAV continue to aid key rice-growing regions. Global disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war, including rising transportation costs and maritime challenges, have affected fertilizer distribution. Despite this, the current stock levels are adequate for dry-season irrigation, ensuring availability through agents, vendors, and large enterprises.

Ghana: In December, fertilizer prices in the country remained steady for products like Urea, Ammonium Sulphate, and NPK 23-10-5, reflecting reduced off-season farming demand. Prices stood at GHS 288.00 ($19.59)for Ammonium Sulphate, GHS 422.69 ($28.76) for Urea, and GHS 524.55 ($35.69) for NPK 23-10-5, with slight dollar variations due to the appreciation of the Ghana cedi.  Fertilizers were consistently available throughout the year, with sufficient stocks reported across retail shops nationwide. Farmers have begun early purchases for the 2025 planting season, anticipating potential price increases. Despite the absence of major tenders, supply stability has been maintained. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has not disrupted fertilizer imports, ensuring uninterrupted availability.

Liberia: In December 2023, Liberia’s fertilizer market experienced stable prices due to reduced farming activities during the mid-dry season. Fertilizer demand remained low as farmers focused on harvests and land preparation, affecting agrodealer sales. Prices for NPK 15-15-15 and Urea ranged between $43.65 and $48.50 per 50kg bag, unchanged from the previous month. Despite sufficient supply, logistical challenges and reliance on imports kept fertilizer costs high compared to neighboring countries. The exchange rate, now at USD 1 to LD 180, influenced market transactions, predominantly conducted in U.S. dollars, posing accessibility barriers for many farmers. Urban centers like Monrovia reported adequate stocks, but rural distribution faced delays and higher transportation costs. Some farmers near borders sourced fertilizers from neighboring countries with better supply chains. The Ukraine-Russia conflict continued to disrupt global fertilizer markets, causing reduced imports, higher prices, and strained supply chains in Liberia. Efforts to enhance infrastructure, streamline distribution, and implement subsidies are crucial to improving access and affordability for smallholder farmers and ensuring agricultural productivity and food security.

Nigeria: From November to December, dry-season farming activities began in Nigeria, particularly in the Northern region, leading to an increase in fertilizer demand and a slight rise in fertilizer prices. NPK prices in the north increased due to the onset of dry-season farming, while prices in the south remained stable due to lower demand. Urea prices declined slightly, following a reduction in ex-factory prices. In December, the average retail price of Urea decreased by 0.5%, while NPK 15-15-15 rose by 0.2%, and NPK 20-10-10 saw a marginal increase of 0.06%. Fertilizer availability remained stable with no reported shortages, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict had minimal impact on Nigeria’s fertilizer supply chain.

Senegal: In December 2024, following a review of the crop year’s performance, lessons were learned, and attention shifted to planning for the next season. Both public and private sectors faced limitations, especially in the subsidy program for small-scale producers. While the production season was largely successful, subsidies remain insufficient, covering less than 40% of farmers’ needs. On the open market, fertilizer prices showed some changes, with Urea stable at CFA 18,000 and NPK 6-20-10 rising by 38.33%. Magnesium Sulfate and Potassium Sulfate prices decreased, while Zinc Sulfate remained unchanged. For the 2024 dry season, 20,500 MT of Urea and 6,000 MT of DAP are available, with distribution underway. The cold off-season campaign has also secured significant volumes of fertilizers, such as NPK 9-23-30, NPK 10-10-20, and Urea. Despite the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, fertilizer supply in Senegal remains stable, and early preparations have mitigated potential risks to availability.

Sierra Leone: As 2024 ends, Sierra Leone’s fertilizer market faces significant challenges driven by global and domestic factors. The country’s heavy reliance on imports exposes it to price volatility and supply disruptions, exacerbated by the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which has raised global fertilizer prices and freight costs. Local production or blending facilities are absent, increasing dependence on international suppliers and straining supply chains. Fertilizer prices remain stable but vary by region, with Urea and NPK 15:15:15 priced between NLe 1,000 ($44) and NLe 1,750 ($78) per 50kg bag. Availability is inconsistent, with urban centers like Freetown, Bo, and Makeni having better stocks than rural areas. High transportation costs and logistical challenges hinder distribution to remote regions, leaving many rural farmers underserved. Despite a 9% reduction in fuel prices, fertilizer costs have not decreased, likely due to inflation, poor infrastructure, and supply chain rigidity. Proposed solutions include establishing regional fertilizer blending plants to reduce reliance on imports and improve supply chain resilience. Improved infrastructure and rural distribution strategies are also crucial for ensuring equitable access and supporting smallholder farmers.

Togo: In December 2024, fertilizer demand in Togo decreased overall due to harvesting and post-harvest activities, though off-season crops in the south, such as vegetables and irrigated rice, maintained moderate demand. Urea and NPK 15-15-15 fertilizers saw consistent use, with the supply remaining ample. The country had over 62,000 MT of Urea and 4,000 MT of NPK 15-15-15 in stock, ensuring sufficient coverage for off-season farming. These fertilizers, sold at subsidized prices of CFA 18,000 (around $30) for food crops and CFA 14,000 ($23) for cotton, were distributed through 232 sales outlets across 400 counties. Demand remained low in the north due to ongoing harvests, while the south continued to use moderate amounts of fertilizers. AgroBio NPK 4-2-2 organic fertilizer was also available in small quantities (10 MT), supporting agroecological practices in the south. Togo remained largely unaffected by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, with no significant disruptions to fertilizer availability, which exceeded 66,000 MT to meet off-season needs.

Availability and Affordability: As the dry season starts in West Africa, fertilizer demand declines, leading to moderate price stability in many areas. Supply remains sufficient, with slight price reductions in some countries due to reduced demand. However, fertilizer affordability is a major concern, driven by inflation and currency fluctuations. Government subsidies and imports have helped stabilize prices in some regions. Despite this, high transport costs and reliance on imports continue to limit broader affordability, especially for smallholder farmers. These challenges are compounded by logistical issues in rural areas. The overall situation reflects ongoing difficulties in making fertilizers accessible and affordable across the region.

Distribution: In December 2024, fertilizer importation and logistics across West Africa were largely smooth, with minimal disruptions and border restrictions. Major entry points facilitated the transport of large fertilizer quantities to markets. In Nigeria, logistics were mostly efficient, though the Northeast region faced challenges due to ongoing security concerns, disrupting supply chains. The National Port Authority played a key role in ensuring the smooth clearance of imports, supporting steady fertilizer flow across the different countries.

Overall market risk: In November, fertilizer markets across West Africa showed varied trends, with demand generally slowing as the rainy season ended and many crops reached harvest stages. However, certain sectors, such as off-season vegetable farming and irrigated crops, maintained some activity, keeping fertilizer demand stable in specific regions. Fertilizer availability remained strong in most areas, with ample stocks to meet both seasonal and off-season needs. Prices for commonly used fertilizers like Urea and NPK remained relatively stable, with some regions benefiting from government subsidies to help offset costs for smallholder farmers.

Despite these positive trends, challenges persist in several areas, including high transportation costs and limited accessibility, particularly for smallholder farmers. In countries heavily reliant on imports, such as those with poor infrastructure or high exchange rate fluctuations, fertilizer prices continue to pose a significant burden. Moreover, the ongoing global supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have increased prices in some regions, threatening agricultural productivity. To mitigate these challenges, governments and agricultural development programs continue to provide support, including fertilizer subsidies and improved seed varieties, although the supply of subsidized fertilizers often remains insufficient to meet the full demand of smallholder farmers. As the dry season progresses, continued support and effective distribution strategies will be essential to maintain stability in the fertilizer market and ensure food security across the region.

Côte d’Ivoire: In November, the fertilizer market remained slow due to the end of the main agricultural season, with most crops in the harvest phase with limited fertilizer demand. Only year-round market gardening and irrigated crops maintained some activity, resulting in low traffic at fertilizer stores. On the supply side, the market remains well-stocked, with fertilizer imports reaching approximately 500,000 MT this year—well above the annual demand of 350,000 MT. Major importers continue to maintain sufficient stocks across all types of fertilizers and crops, strategically positioning supplies to meet off-season needs and fulfill cotton fertilizer orders, including 30,720 MT of urea and 102,000 MT of NPK 15-15-15+6S+1B. Meanwhile, the ongoing cocoa marketing campaign offers farmers a purchase price of CFA 1,800/kg, a 20% increase over the April intermediate harvest, enabling them to invest in fertilizers for upcoming seasons. The return of rains further supports fertilizer application. On the open market, prices remained stable between October and November: a 50 kg bag of Urea averages CFA 21,000 ($35), NPK 0-23-19 costs CFA 19,500 ($33), and NPK 15-15-15 is priced at CFA 22,000 ($37). Cotton fertilizer prices also stayed unchanged from last year, with urea at CFA 17,050 ($28) and NPK 15-15-15+6S+1B at CFA 18,100 ($30) per 50 kg bag.

Gambia: November marks the end of the rainy season and the conclusion of cereal cultivation, except for rice, signaling the start of the horticultural cropping season. Farmers are preparing nurseries across the country, with large-scale commercial farmers leading the sector. Many smallholder farmers use manure, such as groundnut shells, cow dung, compost, and bird droppings, which they collect at little to no cost, though transportation remains a major expense. There were no fertilizer imports recorded in November, but existing stocks are sufficient to meet the needs of commercial and dry-season rice farmers. Fertilizer prices remain subsidized at D1,100 per 50 kg bag (CFA 10,000). The government, along with agricultural development projects like ROOTS, P2RS, GRAV, and GICAF, continues to support dry-season rice farmers with improved seeds and fertilizers, particularly in key rice-growing regions such as the North Bank and South Bank of the Central River Region and the Upper River Region. The price of fertilizer remains stable at D1,100 per 50 kg bag for both Urea and NPK, with strict regulations to prevent the sale of subsidized fertilizer outside the country.

Ghana: Fertilizer prices in Ghana remained stable between October and November 2024, reflecting a balanced demand-and-supply dynamic in the market. Key products such as Ammonium Sulphate, Urea, and NPK 23-10-5 maintained their prices, with Ammonium Sulphate selling at GHS 288.00 ($18.57) per 50kg bag, Urea at GHS 422.69 ($27.26), and NPK 23-10-5 at GHS 524.55 ($33.83), all showing no price variation. Fertilizer availability is secure, supported by free distribution under the World Bank-funded aggregator system. Additionally, the Ghanaian government is supplying seeds and fertilizers to smallholder and commercial farmers to address drought-related grain losses, aiming to produce 360,000 MT of paddy rice and 770,000 metric tons of maize within 120 days, ensuring food system restoration.

Liberia: As of November, Liberia is entering the dry season, leading to a natural slowdown in farming activities and a reduced demand for fertilizers. However, agro-dealers face challenges due to high fertilizer costs, primarily driven by additional charges at the Freeport of Monrovia and Buchanan seaport, which are passed on to farmers. Many rural farmers are turning to border suppliers near Guinea and Ivory Coast to bypass these central dealers and avoid high transportation costs, exacerbated by poor road conditions. Although road repairs are underway to improve infrastructure and distribution, fertilizer affordability remains a major issue. Despite a slight 3% drop in prices this month, fertilizers are still costly compared to neighboring countries, with prices ranging from $43.65 to $48.50 per 50kg bag of NPK 15-15-15 and Urea. Most transactions are still in U.S. dollars, limiting accessibility for farmers who rely on the Liberian dollar. Although the exchange rate has improved slightly, it has not significantly impacted fertilizer prices, leaving many smallholder farmers struggling with high costs and limited access.

Nigeria: Nigeria has entered the off-farming season, marked by the dry season across regions, leading to reduced demand for fertilizers and a slowdown in NPK fertilizer blending as most plants halt activities. Agrodealers have largely maintained stable prices for NPK fertilizers, with slight price drops in some areas due to minimal demand, while Urea prices have risen marginally due to an increase in ex-factory prices from ₦31,000 to ₦33,000. In November, average retail prices of Urea increased by 0.8% to ₦703,460 ($417) per MT, while NPK 15-15-15 prices fell slightly by 0.02% to ₦938,240 ($556) per MT, and NPK 20-10-10 prices remained steady at ₦818,140 ($484) per MT. Despite these shifts, Nigeria has sufficient fertilizers from wet season blending to meet dry-season farming needs, with potential demand increases anticipated in the Northern region as preparations for dry-season farming begin. These November price trends reflect a higher exchange rate of ₦1,688 per $1, up from ₦1,665 in October 2024.

Senegal: In November, as the farming season concluded and some farmers began preparing for dry-season cultivation, optimism grew about accessing subsidized fertilizers. However, the subsidy program continues to face significant challenges, particularly for smallholder farmers. In many regions, the supply of subsidized fertilizers remains inadequate, covering less than 30% of actual needs and limiting its impact on improving productivity. On the open market, fertilizer prices showed mixed trends. A 50 kg bag of Urea remained relatively stable at CFA 18,000 (US$28.80), a slight 2.88% increase from CFA 18,333 (US$35.55) the previous month. NPK 6-20-10 saw a sharp rise of 38.33%, reaching CFA 16,666 (US$26.67) from CFA 12,050 (US$19.28), while NPK 20-20-20 held steady at CFA 45,000 (US$73.48). Other inputs saw price drops: magnesium sulphates decreased by 12.5% to CFA 8,750 (US$14.00) from CFA 10,500 (US$17.85), and sulphate of potash fell by 2.98% to CFA 20,375 (US$32.60) from CFA 21,000 (US$35.70). Zinc sulphate prices, however, remained unchanged at CFA 60,000.

Sierra Leone: Sierra Leone’s fertilizer market is highly dependent on imports, making it vulnerable to global disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which have driven up prices and strained supply chains. As of November 2024, fertilizer prices remain stable but high, primarily influenced by import costs rather than seasonal demand. The depreciation of the leone and persistent inflation continue to increase procurement and transportation costs, making fertilizers unaffordable for many smallholder farmers despite a 9% drop in fuel prices. Prices for common fertilizers such as NPK 15:15:15 and Urea vary across regions, with costs ranging from NLe 1,000 ($44) to NLe 1,750 ($78) per 50kg bag, while distribution remains generally accessible. However, these affordability challenges, compounded by limited domestic production capacity and inefficiencies in the supply chain, threaten agricultural productivity and food security in a farming-reliant nation.

Togo: In November 2024, fertilizer demand dropped sharply in the north due to the harvest season, while in the south, vegetable crops and off-season production drove a recovery in demand. This increased demand poses no supply concerns, with 67,785 MT of fertilizer—63,093 MT of Urea and 4,692 MT of NPK 15-15-15—readily available in warehouses, more than sufficient to meet farmers’ off-season needs. The supply is further bolstered by 135,355 MT of fertilizer mobilized through the subsidy program, exceeding the initial target of 85,000 MT. This includes 83,595 MT of Urea and 51,760 MT of NPK 15-15-15. Subsidized fertilizer prices remain unchanged for the past two years, at CFA 18,000 ($30) per 50 kg bag for food crops and CFA 14,000 ($23) per 50 kg bag for cotton fertilizers, including Urea and NPK 12-20-18+5S+1B.

Availability and Affordability: The dry season begins across West Africa, and fertilizer demand is still decreasing, resulting in moderate price stability in many areas. Fertilizer availability remains manageable, with adequate supplies for current needs, though some countries are seeing slight price reductions due to declining demand. However, affordability remains a critical concern throughout the region as local currency fluctuations and inflationary pressures keep fertilizer prices elevated. While government subsidies and imports have helped stabilize prices in some areas, high transport costs and continued dependency on imports limit broader affordability, especially for smallholder farmers.

Distribution: In November, fertilizer importation and logistics across West Africa ran smoothly, with few disruptions and minimal border restrictions. Large quantities of fertilizer were successfully transported through major entry points and distributed to markets. In Nigeria, logistical operations were mostly efficient, though the Northeast region experienced transportation challenges due to ongoing security concerns, which affected supply chains there. The National Port Authority across the region played a crucial role in ensuring efficient logistics and expediting clearance for fertilizer imports, as long as proper documentation was provided. Overall, strong coordination between logistics providers and regulatory authorities helped maintain a steady flow of fertilizers, supporting agricultural activities as the harvest season continued.

Overall market risk: In October, fertilizer demand across West Africa showed notable variations as agricultural seasons began to wind down in many areas. In regions focused on cotton, cereals, and cocoa, the demand for fertilizer declined as these crops advanced to late growth or harvest stages. However, vegetable and other year-round crops continued to support some market demand, particularly where regions saw favorable rainfall that sustained planting and crop growth into the off-season. In key agricultural zones, renewed rainfall aided ongoing fertilizer applications, especially for crops nearing maturity.

On the supply side, large importers and distributors across the region maintained ample stock levels. Recent shipments have added to cumulative imports, helping secure adequate fertilizer availability for off-season needs and planned tenders, particularly for cotton. In some areas, local governments have allocated substantial budgets to subsidize fertilizers, to stabilize prices and ensure farmers have access to critical inputs such as Urea, NPK blends, and fertilizers with added micronutrients for enhanced crop yield and quality. Prices for standard fertilizers like Urea, NPK 15-15-15, and specialized blends like NPK 0-23-19 remained relatively stable, averaging between $25 and $50 per 50 kg bag across different regions, depending on subsidy levels and local market conditions.

Despite these measures, market prices have seen minor fluctuations due to factors such as sporadic shortages, high energy and transportation costs, and regional currency instability. Currency devaluations and inflation in several countries continue to put pressure on fertilizer costs, impacting affordability for farmers, particularly in areas heavily reliant on imports. In response, some governments have enforced strict border controls on subsidized fertilizers to prevent unauthorized cross-border trade, aiming to protect domestic supply chains and ensuring that local farmers benefit directly from subsidy programs. These combined efforts are intended to support food security and promote sustainable agricultural productivity across the region.

Benin: The 2024 planting season is nearing its end, marked by August – September rainfall totaling 60 mm, lower than the previous year. The rainy season has shortened, with increasingly irregular and intense rainfall, and long droughts lasting up to 30 days in central and southern regions. In contrast, northern areas, including Borgou, Donga, and Atacora, saw an early start to the rainy season, which disrupted normal farming schedules and reduced fertilizer demand. However, this decline has not had a significant impact, as most crops have matured, with some already being harvested in the south. The government has allocated over CFA 24 billion to subsidize fertilizers, allowing farmers to purchase a 50 kg bag of Urea for CFA 15,000 ($25) and NPK for CFA 17,000 ($28), while non-subsidized prices are much higher. To protect these subsidies, authorities are cracking down on illegal fertilizer exports, with border enforcement tasked to stop such activities.

Côte d’Ivoire: In October, fertilizer demand slowed as the main growing season ended, with cotton and cereal crops advancing to late growth or harvest stages, and farmers purchasing less fertilizer. Market gardeners, however, continued buying due to year-round production needs. The cocoa marketing campaign began with a 20% increase in purchase price to CFA 1,800/kg, enabling cocoa producers to afford future fertilizer purchases. Additionally, renewed rainfall in the region aids fertilizer application. On the supply side, large importers maintained stock levels with the recent arrival of 48,000 MT, raising cumulative imports to 435,000 MT and ensuring adequate off-season and cotton tender supplies. Fertilizer prices remained stable from September to October, with a 50 kg bag of Urea priced at CFA 21,000 ($35), NPK 0-23-19 at CFA 19,500 ($33), and NPK 15-15-15 at CFA 22,000 ($37), while cotton fertilizers stayed at last year’s rates.

Gambia: The fertilizer market in The Gambia has remained stable since September all through to October, with prices holding at D1100 per 50 kg bag for both Urea and NPK, unchanged from the start of the cropping season. Despite government subsidies aimed at lowering prices, demand has tapered off as the farming season ends and harvesting begins, particularly for cereals. Recent floods in the Upper and Central River regions have also impacted rice cultivation, further reducing the need for fertilizer top-dressing. Consequently, significant fertilizer stocks remain in the warehouses of the Gambia Groundnut Corporation (GGC) and with local vendors. Several development projects, including ROOTS, P2RS, GRAV, and GICAF, distributed fertilizer to farmers this season, though some stocks have been held back for future use in vegetable gardening and cereal crops in 2025 and 2026. The government has enforced strict regulations to keep subsidized fertilizer within national borders, ensuring these resources benefit local farmers.

Ghana: The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) is in negotiations to purchase 0-18-19 fertilizer with micronutrients, to be likely sourced from Turkey. COCOBOD aims to secure the product at approximately $540/t CFR, while the supplier’s price exceeds $600/t CFR. In October, the price of NPK 23-10-5 rose by 16%, from GHS 450.71 ($27.68) to GHS 524.55 ($32.21) per 50kg bag, reflecting the high costs of fertilizer, partly driven by recent shortages and heightened demand. Ammonium Sulphate and Urea prices, however, have remained stable, averaging GHS 288.00 ($18.00) and GHS 420.38 ($26.78) per 50 kg bag, respectively. To support food production, the government has begun distributing 5,133 MT of seeds and 118,000 MT of fertilizer to 800,000 smallholder farmers nationwide.

Liberia: After six and a half months of rain, the dry season has begun, reducing main farming activities and fertilizer demand as farmers shift to harvesting their crops. Fertilizer prices in Liberia have slightly decreased this month to clear out remaining stock, though they remain high compared to regional levels due to the absence of local production facilities and the indirect effects of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The most used fertilizers, NPK 15-15-15 and Urea, are priced between $45 and $50 per 50kg bag. Transactions are largely conducted in U.S. dollars, though some use Liberian dollars. Despite a slight dip in the exchange rate to 1 USD for 190 LD, market prices remain mostly unaffected.

Nigeria: In October, northern States entered the dry season, with parts of the north-central and southern regions also nearing the end of rainfall, leading to reduced fertilizer demand across retail markets. As demand declined, many fertilizer blenders paused NPK production, and agrodealers struggled with slow sales and increased competition to move their remaining stock, with many types likely to carry over to the next planting season. Fertilizer prices have remained mostly stable, with minimal changes due to the overall slowdown in agricultural activities. Urea prices dropped by 0.4% to ₦697,740 ($419) per MT, while NPK 15-15-15 saw a slight dip of 0.01% to ₦938,460 ($564) per MT, and NPK 20-10-10 fell by 0.1% to ₦818,140 ($419) per MT. These dollar prices are calculated using the October exchange rate of ₦1,665 to $1, up slightly from September’s rate of ₦1,660.

Senegal: In October, as the off-season campaign began, the agricultural sector faced delays in fertilizer availability, particularly following the end of subsidies for certain fertilizers, including formulas 15-15-15, 15-10-10, and 6-20-10, which expired on September 30. In the Kedougou region, stock levels had already depleted, highlighting the urgent need for improved planning and anticipation for the off-season. To enhance the resilience of the agricultural campaign and mitigate the risk of shortages for local producers, it is crucial to harmonize the preparation of specifications and update supply strategies to ensure a continuous availability of fertilizers. Price fluctuations were notable between September and October 2024, with the cost of a 50 kg bag of Urea increasing by 16.03%, from CFA 15,800 ($30.60) to CFA 18,333 ($35.55). Conversely, the popular 9-23-30 formula remained steady at CFA 20,000 ($38.76) per 50 kg bag. Other fertilizers, such as MAP and DAP, also maintained price stability, with MAP priced at CFA 20,625 ($39.98) for 25 kg bags and DAP at CFA 35,000 ($67.83) for 50 kg bags, unchanged from the previous month.

Sierra Leone: In October 2024, Sierra Leone’s fertilizer market faced a moderate risk as prices continued to rise due to import reliance, supply chain issues, and increased demand, with government subsidies offering limited stabilization. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, prices in the Western Area have surged nearly 300%, and by 200% in other regions. Despite recent fuel price reductions, costs of transportation and goods remain high, while inflation increased to 25.49%, prompting the Bank of Sierra Leone to raise its monetary policy rate to 24.75%. Currency depreciation also challenged importers, as the Leone declined 0.05% to NLe 22.598/$, with the black-market rate at NLe 24.60/$. Fertilizer availability is gradually improving as stakeholders focus on food security, although no local manufacturing exists to reduce prices and import dependency. Sales data show moderate demand, with strong early sales in the Western Area and Kambia slowing as the rainy season ends. In Northern and Eastern regions, steady demand is expected as farmers prepare for dry-season planting. Regional price disparities remain, with higher prices in the Western Area, while NPK and Urea prices vary slightly, averaging NLe 30,000 ($1,331) per ton.

Togo: In October 2024, fertilizer demand in Sierra Leone saw a boost due to regional weather patterns: in the south, the short rainy season spurred sowing and plant growth, while in the north, crops reached advanced stages in the ongoing major growing season. This increase in demand aligns with favorable conditions in southern and irrigated areas and is expected to grow as the season progresses. Supply remains robust, with a substantial stock of 69,178 MT, including 63,701 MT of Urea and 5,477 MT of NPK 15-15-15, more than enough for off-season needs. This stock level has been strengthened by the national subsidy program, which mobilized 135,355 MT, well above the initial target of 85,000 MT, and saw the sale of 66,178 MT by October. Prices have remained stable over two years, with food crop fertilizers set at CFA 18,000 ($30) per 50 kg bag for both Urea and NPK 15-15-15, while cotton fertilizers are subsidized at CFA 14,000 ($23) per 50 kg bag for Urea and NPK 12-20-18 +5S +1B.

Availability and Affordability: As the rainy season winds down and harvest season begins across West Africa, fertilizer demand is decreasing, resulting in moderate price stability in many areas. Fertilizer availability remains manageable, with adequate supplies for current needs, though some countries are seeing slight price reductions due to declining demand. However, affordability remains a critical concern throughout the region as local currency fluctuations and inflationary pressures keep fertilizer prices elevated. While government subsidies and imports have helped stabilize prices in some areas, high transport costs and continued dependency on imports limit broader affordability, especially for smallholder farmers.

Distribution: In October, fertilizer importation and logistics across West Africa proceeded relatively smoothly, with minimal disruptions and few border restrictions. Significant quantities of fertilizers were successfully transported through major entry points and distributed to various markets. In Nigeria, logistical operations were generally efficient; however, the Northeast region faced transportation challenges due to ongoing security concerns, which impacted supply chains in that area. The National Port Authority (NPA) across the West African region played a vital role in facilitating efficient logistics and expediting clearance processes for fertilizer imports, contingent upon the maintenance of proper documentation. Overall, the effective coordination among logistics providers and regulatory authorities helped ensure a steady flow of fertilizers, supporting agricultural activities as the harvest season progressed.

Overall market risk: In September 2024, West Africa’s fertilizer situation varied across countries, shaped by climatic conditions and agricultural policies. In Ivory Coast, a 20.1% drop in rainfall compared to the previous year disrupted farming and reduced fertilizer demand, yet imports remained stable at around 435,000 MT, with prices for Urea at CFA 21,000 ($35) and NPK 15-15-15 at CFA 22,000 ($37). Ghana struggled with drought, which impacted crop production, particularly in the north, leading to a shortage of NPK 23-10-5, prompting government export bans and support for farmers. In Nigeria, the transition to harvest reduced fertilizer demand, resulting in stable or slightly lower prices due to reduced demand. Conversely, Sierra Leone faced skyrocketing fertilizer prices amid high import dependence and inflation. Benin experienced a shorter rainy season which affected demand, but substantial government subsidy was provided to keep prices low. In Togo, low fertilizer transactions followed the main planting season, although demand is expected to rise with favorable weather forecasts. Senegal encountered shortages in fertilizers like NPK 6-20-10 despite government subsidies. Meanwhile, The Gambia benefited from improved crop production due to favorable conditions and government support, yet overall fertilizer demand decreased as most crops neared harvest.

Generally, the fertilizer market across West Africa experienced stable yet high prices despite the reduced demand due to the ending raining season. Overall, fertilizer supply has been adequate to meet demand country to country, ensuring that agricultural activities continued uninterrupted.

Benin: The 2024 planting season is nearing its end, marked by August – September rainfall totaling 60 mm, lower than the previous year. The rainy season has shortened, with increasingly irregular and intense rainfall, and long droughts lasting up to 30 days in central and southern regions. In contrast, northern areas, including Borgou, Donga, and Atacora, saw an early start to the rainy season, which disrupted normal farming schedules and reduced fertilizer demand. However, this decline has not had a significant impact, as most crops have matured, with some already being harvested in the south. The government has allocated over CFA 24 billion to subsidize fertilizers, allowing farmers to purchase a 50 kg bag of Urea for CFA 15,000 (US$25) and NPK for CFA 17,000 (US$28), while non-subsidized prices are much higher. To protect these subsidies, authorities are cracking down on illegal fertilizer exports, with border enforcement tasked to stop such activities.

Côte d’Ivoire: The major agricultural season is nearing its end, with 20.1% less rainfall from January to August, compared to the same period in 2023, according to meteorological reports. These irregular weather patterns disrupted farming activities, including fertilizer application, leading to a significant drop in fertilizer demand. Despite this, fertilizer supply remains steady, with an additional 48,000 MT delivered, bringing total imports from January to September to around 435,000 MT. This stockpile is crucial for off-season demand and the upcoming cotton tender, which requires 30,720 MT of Urea and 102,000 MT of NPK 15-15-15+6S+1B by October. Fertilizer prices have remained stable, with Urea priced at CFA 21,000 ($35) per 50 kg bag, NPK 0-23-19 at CFA 19,500 ($33), and NPK 15-15-15 at CFA 22,000 ($37). Cotton fertilizer prices remain unchanged from last year, with Urea being sole at CFA 17,050 ($28) and NPK 15-15-15+6S+1B at CFA 18,100 ($30) per 50 kg bag.

Gambia: Over the past three years, crop production in The Gambia has steadily increased, with a notable rise in September 2024 due to favorable weather conditions, subsidized fertilizers, and affordable high-yield seeds. As most crops are now ready for harvest, fertilizer demand has significantly dropped, except for minimal needs from vegetable growers and some rice farms in key regions. Despite heavy September floods washing away some fertilizers, prices remain stable at D1100 (US$15.80) per 50 kg bag, thanks to government subsidies and price controls, with sufficient stock available in local markets.

Ghana: In August through to September, Ghana faced a drought that severely affected crop production, especially in the northern regions. While most fertilizers remain available, a shortage of NPK 23-10-5 in early September shifted demand to other NPK grades. Farmers who planted early were hit hardest by the drought, but late-planters have started to recover with the return of rains. Rising food prices, particularly for cereals, have led some farmers to withhold their stock, anticipating further price increases. In response, the government implemented measures, including a ban on grain exports, rice and maize imports, financial aid for affected farmers, and support for irrigation-based farming. While the minor farming season has begun in the south, the market remains subdued. Most fertilizer prices have held steady, except for NPK 23-10-5, which rose from GHS 430 ($27) to GHS 540 ($34) per 50 kg bag, with retail prices expected to follow.

Liberia: As Liberia’s rainy season nears its end, fertilizer demand is expected to decline. The government is pursuing international partnerships, including talks with China and Indonesia, to boost agricultural job creation, though no direct subsidies for agro-inputs exist. Concerns are rising about the effectiveness of duty-free policies at ports. Many farmers prefer purchasing fertilizers from border areas near Guinea and Ivory Coast to avoid high transportation costs from central agro-dealers in Monrovia, who primarily supply NGOs and projects. Fertilizer prices, including the popular NPK 15-15-15 and Urea (both sold at $55 per 50 kg), remain high, driven by the main farming season and reliance on fertilizers to increase yields. The Russia-Ukraine crisis and the lack of a local fertilizer plant have also contributed to high prices. While the U.S. dollar is the primary currency for transactions, the exchange rate with the Liberian dollar has improved to 1 USD = 192 LD.

Nigeria: As September progresses, Nigeria’s wet season farming is coming to an end, transitioning into the harvest phase. With most fertilization completed, fertilizer demand has naturally declined, leading to stable or slightly reduced prices across the country despite rising production and logistics costs, including fuel and the ex-factory price of Urea, which remains at ₦31,000 per 50 kg bag. Government subsidies have also played a role in stabilizing prices. Fertilizer demand is tapering off as farmers finish their applications, which is reducing pressure on prices. In September, the average retail price of Urea fell by 1.4%, from ₦710,400 ($447) in August to ₦700,400 ($422), while NPK 15-15-15 dropped by 0.4% and NPK 20-10-10 by 0.3%. Fertilizer prices are calculated using an exchange rate of $1 to ₦1,660, up from ₦1,588 in August 2024.

Senegal: In September, the agricultural season is nearing its end, with early reports looking good regarding consumption. However, there has been a shortage of NPK 6-20-10 fertilizer due to higher-than-expected demand. This rise in demand reflects the effective use of fertilizers during the rainy season, backed by substantial subsidies amounting to CFA 120 billion for the 2024-2025 season.

Sierra Leone: In September 2024, Sierra Leone’s fertilizer market saw moderate price increases due to rising domestic demand, heavy reliance on imports, and the initial global disruptions caused by the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This volatility led to nearly quadrupled prices for fertilizers like Urea and NPK 15:15:15 in some regions. Inflation at 25.45% and fluctuating exchange rates, with the leone trading at Nle 22.587 per USD (official market) and Nle 24.400 per USD (black market), worsened the situation. Despite lower fuel prices, the depreciation of the leone drove up fertilizer costs, as all fertilizers are imported. Urea prices ranged from Nle 1,100 ($48) to Nle 1,750 ($76), and NPK from Nle 1,000 ($44) to Nle 1,700 ($75), with higher prices in the Western Area compared to the Northern Province. Awareness of fertilizers’ importance is growing, but many farmers lack knowledge about proper application, which highlights the need for educational policies. While demand was strong in early September, it is expected to decline as the rainy season ends, leading to potential price stabilization.

Togo: In September, fertilizer market transactions in the southern region declined due to the end of the main planting season, a trend exacerbated by short- to medium-term droughts early in the season and an early season conclusion attributed to unusual climate changes. Conversely, the northern region experienced resumed rains following over three weeks of drought. This agro-climatic disruption resulted in low fertilizer demand, with only 346 MT of Urea and 2,401 MT of NPK sold between August and September. However, demand is expected to recover in October, driven by favorable weather forecasts and the initiation of vegetable crops in the south and irrigated areas nationwide. There is no tension on the supply side, thanks to 135,355 MT of fertilizer mobilized under a subsidy program—well above the initial plan of 85,000 MT. This total includes 83,595 MT of Urea and 51,761 MT of NPK, of which 64,213 MT were sold (18,920 MT of Urea and 45,293 MT of NPK). A surplus of 71,142 MT remains available, ensuring adequate supply for off-season needs. Fertilizers are sold at subsidized prices, which have remained unchanged for two years: CFA 18,000 (approximately $30) per 50 kg bag for Urea and NPK 15-15-15, and CFA 14,000 (about $23) for Urea and NPK 12-20-18 +5S +1B in the cotton sector.

Market prices for fertilizers varied between August and September. The price of a 50 kg bag of Urea rose slightly by 1.11%, from CFA 15,625 (US$25.87) in August to CFA 15,800 (US$30.60) in September. Meanwhile, the price of a 50 kg bag of NPK 6-20-10 dropped significantly by 19.33%, from CFA 15,000 (US$26.13) to CFA 12,050. The price of NPK 20-20-20 remained steady at CFA 45,000 (US$73.48).

Availability and Affordability: With the rainy season gradually ending and harvest season beginning in some West African countries, the demand for fertilizers has been reducing with prices somewhat stable. Fertilizers are generally available, but supply is moderate. Some countries are seeing price decreases due to reduced demand, but affordability remains a significant issue across the region, as fluctuating local currencies continue to drive up fertilizer prices.

Distribution: In September, fertilizer importation, transportation, and logistics in West Africa went smoothly with few disruptions or border restrictions. Significant quantities of fertilizers were successfully moved through entry points and distributed. In Nigeria, logistics were mostly efficient, though the Northeast region experienced transportation restrictions due to security issues. The National Port Authority (NPA) was instrumental in ensuring effective logistics and expediting clearance processes for fertilizers across West Africa, provided proper documentation was maintained.

Overall market risk: In August 2024, West Africa’s agricultural sector faced significant challenges due to extreme weather conditions and fluctuating fertilizer markets. Heavy rainfall and flooding in countries like Nigeria and Niger caused widespread crop damage, while other regions struggled with droughts, leading to water shortages. These unpredictable weather patterns, exacerbated by climate change, underscored the urgent need for improved climate resilience in agriculture to safeguard food security. Simultaneously, the fertilizer market across West Africa experienced stable yet high prices driven by increased demand during the planting season. Côte d’Ivoire managed to stabilize prices by stockpiling fertilizers, keeping costs around $42 (CFA 25.000) per 50 kg bag. However, affordability issues plagued countries like Ghana and Nigeria, where currency depreciation and fluctuating exchange rates added financial pressure on farmers. In Liberia, the rainy season boosted fertilizer demand, but prices fell as dealers cleared old stock, while Togo maintained a strong supply, though demand remained unexpectedly low. Despite government interventions, high fertilizer costs continued to burden smallholder farmers across the region. Overall, fertilizer supply has been adequate to meet the rising demand, and to ensure that agricultural activities can continue uninterrupted.

Benin: In August, agricultural activities are progressing well across the country. The government has allocated over 24 billion CFA to subsidize fertilizers, allowing farmers to purchase a 50 kg bag of Urea for $25 (15,000 CFA) and NPK for $28 (17,000 CFA), compared to $33 (19,500 CFA) and $38 (22,500 CFA) on the open market. To combat the illegal export of subsidized fertilizers, authorities have implemented measures, including border law enforcement to arrest and prosecute violators.

Cote d’Ivoire: In August, the fertilizer market remained stable in West Africa, with major importers bringing in nearly 400,000 MT of fertilizer by mid-year. Despite an increase in demand over the past two months, the market experienced no shortages. Fertilizer prices reflected this stability, with Urea priced at about $35 per 50 kg bag, and NPK fertilizers ranging from $33 to $37. For cotton, fertilizer prices were consistent with the previous year, with Urea at $28 and NPK at $30 per 50 kg bag.

Gambia: Over the past three years, agricultural output in The Gambia has steadily increased due to favorable rainfall, the availability of highly subsidized fertilizers, and affordable high-yield seeds. Free agricultural extension services have also played a crucial role in enhancing productivity. In August 2024, fertilizer distribution faced temporary shortages in some regions due to supply being restricted to agents who fulfilled previous agreements, though these issues were gradually resolved. Fertilizer prices remained stable at GMD 1,100 per 50 kg bag, significantly lower than prices across the border, leading to smuggling. The Gambian government’s interventions aim to support vulnerable farmers and ensure food security, though economic challenges still affect fertilizer affordability in rural areas.

Ghana: Fertilizer prices have remained stable over the past two months, with ample stock available among importers and distributors. However, farmers in eight regions are facing significant losses due to a prolonged dry spell, affecting approximately 430,000 farmers and 871,000 hectares of crops, leading to an estimated GHS 3.5 million in losses. To alleviate financial pressures, the government plans to integrate input grants like fertilizers and seeds with the Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) input-credit system. As of August 2024, the prices for Urea, Ammonium Sulphate, and NPK 23-10-5 have remained unchanged since June, at GHS 420.77, GHS 288.00, and GHS 450.71 per 50 kg bag, respectively.

Liberia: In August, heavy rainfall in Liberia significantly disrupted farming activities, leading to increased demand for agro-inputs like fertilizers and soil amendments. Prices for these inputs rose by $5 to $10 per 50kg bag, largely due to higher transportation costs caused by deteriorating roads. Although the government maintains duty-free status on agricultural materials, the absence of direct subsidies has made fertilizers less affordable for farmers, despite their importance for crop yields. Programs like STAR-P and RETRAP are helping some farmers access these inputs. Fertilizers, primarily NPK 15-15-15 and Urea, are mainly imported from neighboring countries and are sold for around $55 per 50kg bag. Transactions are commonly conducted in U.S. dollars, with the exchange rate stable at 1 USD to 194 Liberian dollars.

Nigeria: In August, Nigeria’s active farming season, driven by favorable rainy weather, boosted the cultivation of food and cash crops nationwide, increasing demand for Urea and NPK fertilizers. This demand led to higher supply and sales for agrodealers, supported by government-subsidized fertilizers, making them more accessible to farmers across various States. Recent fertilizer imports have ensured sufficient availability, though prices saw a slight increase due to sustained demand and higher transportation costs amid fuel scarcity. Urea prices rose from ₦29,500 to ₦31,000 per 50 kg bag, with retail prices of NPK 15-15-15 and NPK 20-10-10 also experiencing modest increases, influenced by the rising exchange rate of ₦1,588 per USD in August.

Senegal: In August 2024, the fertilizer market was heavily influenced by substantial subsidies amounting to CFA 120 billion for the 2024-2025 season. In Senegal, where the government is the primary buyer, ensuring smooth distribution is crucial for private sector involvement. Currently, about 75% of fertilizers is in place, with expectations of reaching 90% by early September due to coordinated efforts. Subsidized fertilizer prices remain regulated, with NPK fertilizers ranging from CFA 6,500 to CFA 12,500 and Urea at CFA 10,000, while organic fertilizers are priced between CFA 1,000 and CFA 1,500. On the open market, Urea prices have decreased by 13.19% to an average of CFA 15,625, and NPK fertilizers vary from CFA 15,000 to CFA 45,000, with various sulphates available from CFA 10,125 to CFA 70,000 for 25 kg bags.

Sierra Leone: The peak of the rainy season brought heavy rains, causing floods and landslides, yet farming activities, including weeding and fertilizer application, continued. Fertilizer demand was strong, particularly among rice farmers, and was expected to remain high throughout August. The government distributed 30,000 bags of fertilizer nationwide, which could affect market prices. Despite high availability, fertilizer prices varied across regions, with the Northern Province generally seeing lower prices compared to the Western Area. Price fluctuations were influenced by import costs and the impact of government-subsidized fertilizer entering the market.

Togo: The fertilizer market remained stable in August 2024 in Togo, supported by a government subsidy that mobilized 113,596 MT of fertilizer, surpassing the initial forecast of 85,000 MT. By August, 73,889 MT had been delivered to 232 sales points, with 61,267 MT distributed. However, market transactions declined as the main rainy season ended, reducing the demand for fertilizers, especially as most crops reached maturity. Vegetable crops in irrigated areas sustained limited demand, but a continued decline is expected into September due to dry winds in the north affecting crop growth. Subsidized prices for fertilizers remain unchanged, with Urea and NPK 15-15-15 sold at $30 per 50 kg bag, while cotton-specific fertilizers are priced at $23 per bag.

Availability and Affordability: With the rainy season at its peak in some West African countries, the demand for fertilizers has risen, though not as sharply as in previous years. Fertilizers are generally available, but supply is moderate. Some countries are seeing price increases due to high demand. Affordability remains a significant issue across the region, as fluctuating local currencies continue to drive up fertilizer prices.

Distribution: In August, fertilizer importation, transportation, and logistics in West Africa went smoothly with few disruptions or border restrictions. Significant quantities of fertilizers were successfully moved through entry points and distributed. In Nigeria, logistics were mostly efficient, though the Northeast region experienced transportation restrictions due to security issues. The National Port Authority (NPA) was instrumental in ensuring effective logistics and expediting clearance processes for fertilizers across West Africa, provided proper documentation was maintained.