Overall market risk: Demand for fertilizers in West African countries has seen a decline, primarily as a result of the conclusion of the main farming season. Consequently, fertilizer prices have experienced a general decrease throughout the region. It is anticipated that these prices will continue to decline in tandem with the decreasing international prices. Fortunately, there have been no reports of fertilizer shortages, and fertilizers remain readily available in all the countries under review, including Niger. This consistent availability in Niger is facilitated by the continuous flow of products through parallel routes. Furthermore, there is an unrestricted movement and supply of fertilizers from one country to another, except for Niger. Niger has faced sanctions imposed by ECOWAS following a coup d’état, which has disrupted the normal flow of goods and supplies.
Despite the overall decrease in prices, the West African region is still experiencing somewhat higher prices compared to previous years. However, on a general scale, prices have remained relatively stable in most countries, and there have been no reports of unavailability.
Cote d’Ivoire: The fertilizer market in Ivory Coast has maintained a state of stability, with no significant pressure on supply. This stability is attributed to a supply that adapts to the level of demand. The situation has been further influenced by a decline in demand following the recent conclusion of the main crop year. Importers in Ivory Coast have been proactive throughout the year, mobilizing an impressive quantity of fertilizer. In fact, the tonnage of fertilizer mobilized this year has exceeded the tonnage from the previous year by 71%. It appears that this stock of fertilizer has not yet been fully utilized. This surplus is expected to be more than sufficient to meet the fertilizer needs for the last two months of the year.
Ghana: Ghana is currently in its off-peak farming season, which started in September and is expected to continue until November. Fertilizer prices have remained steady in the open market, and there have been no reports of fertilizer shortages, due to reduced demand. The prices have been relatively stable in some region while dropping in other region of the country. The government have been preparing to make available cheaper and more available fertilizers for the next planting year through the planting for Food and Job initiative (phase II).
In Nigeria, Numerous farmers have already completed their fertilizer applications and are now in the process of harvesting their crops. This off-season period has led to a noticeable reduction in the blending of NPK fertilizers by producers and a substantial decrease in fertilizer demand among farmers. Fertilizer products, including urea and NPK, are generally well-stocked and readily available in the market. However, agro-dealers are currently facing the challenge of low demand from farmers. This situation has resulted in a consistent drop in fertilizer prices in the market. The information gathered indicates that there is an abundant supply of fertilizers in the country, especially urea. This abundance is a positive sign, ensuring there will be ample volumes of fertilizer available for dry-season farming, which is expected in the upcoming months.
In Senegal, fertilizer prices remained stable from September to October due to a combination of factors. The availability of subsidized fertilizers in the market and a decline in international fertilizer prices contributed to this stability. The fertilizer market in Senegal is running smoothly with consistent demand, and there are no significant supply issues. Senegal has made extensive preparations for the agricultural season, benefiting from local fertilizer production and substantial imports. Importers have increased their orders to ensure a steady fertilizer supply, and the government has played a key role in assuring farmers of fertilizer availability. Over 180,500 tons of fertilizer have been distributed through the subsidy program to support this assurance.
Niger: The situation in Niger has remained largely unchanged since the military coup on July 26, 2023, with ECOWAS sanctions still in effect. Fertilizer supply to Niger continues to be severely disrupted due to border closures, causing long lines of goods trucks and congestion at the port of Cotonou. The port authorities in Cotonou have temporarily suspended Nigerien supplies due to this congestion, leading to a buildup of containers. Fertilizer supply in Niger has seen a significant decline, with a reduction in official imports, and much of the supply now comes through informal channels. While stocks of certain fertilizers are depleted, there is an abundance of others, mainly sourced from neighboring Nigeria. Demand for fertilizers has increased with the start of the irrigated season, highlighting the need to address logistical challenges and border issues affecting fertilizer supply in Niger.
In Togo, Government-backed fertilizer reserves are strategically distributed across all regions of the country, ensuring that they can fully cater to the needs of farmers. It’s important to emphasize that, as part of the subsidy program, the government has increased its fertilizer orders to guarantee a plentiful supply during the growing season. However, in the northern region of the country, the primary agricultural season is winding down, leading to a noticeable decrease in fertilizer demand. In contrast, in the southern zone, the commencement of the short rainy season has sparked optimism for increased demand from farmers in this region. This heralds the start of renewed agricultural activities and a potential resurgence in the requirement for fertilizers.
Availability and Affordability: By and large, fertilizer markets in West Africa have largely regained their equilibrium, with prices remaining steady in the majority of retail markets, although a few exceptions exist. While affordability remains a prominent concern in specific countries, there is a general assurance of availability, and no reports of severe shortages have surfaced, even in Niger. This overall stability and continuous supply bode well for the agricultural sector in the region.
Distribution: The distribution of fertilizers has, for the most part, regained a sense of normalcy across West Africa, with the lingering effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict gradually waning. All fertilizer ports and border crossings are operational, except for Nigeria’s northeastern region, where security concerns continue to limit fertilizer movement, and Niger, which is facing import sanctions following a recent coup d’état. Landlocked countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso have found a workaround by utilizing ports in Cote d’Ivoire to facilitate their fertilizer imports, ensuring a steady supply of these vital agricultural inputs. This reestablishment of distribution channels is a positive development for the region’s agricultural sector.