Overall market risk: Despite the full commencement of the rains across West Africa, farmer demand for fertilizers remains depressed year on year (YoY) in some countries in the region. Reports indicate that there is sufficient availability of fertilizers with no shortages, but there have been delays in the supply chain. The situation has led to predictions that fertilizer prices will further decrease, potentially leading to increased consumption levels.
However, the farming season is gradually ending in some countries, which could hinder the expected increase in consumption. As the season comes to a close, farmers may already have procured the necessary fertilizers, and new purchases might be limited.
Importations and fertilizer supplies are still ongoing across the region, driven by decreasing international prices. Some countries have, however, put their importation plans on hold due to political issues. For instance, in Niger, political factors have influenced the decision to postpone fertilizer importations.
As an overview, while the rains have arrived and fertilizers are available in West Africa, the demand from farmers has not shown significant growth compared to the previous year. Despite the expected decrease in fertilizer prices and ongoing importations, factors like the timing of the farming season and political issues in certain countries may impact the overall fertilizer consumption levels in the region. Continued monitoring of the situation will be important to understand how it evolves in the coming months.
Cote d’Ivoire: Fertilizer demand has continued to increase, amidst decreasing and stabilizing international prices. As a result, fertilizer suppliers have continued to mobilize stocks to meet product demand. Import volumes since the beginning of 2023 have already increased by 53% compared to last year 2022, as over 530,000 MT have entered Côte d’Ivoire according to Customs data. As already reported, fertilizer prices show a downward trend of 17% to 30% less compared to the level of the first quarter of 2023 but remain relatively stable compared to June 2023.
Ghana: The Ministry of Agriculture have announced their intention to replace the PFJ with a value-chain strategy. Demand in Ghana is currently low, as many markets are already preparing to transition into their off-season. From Jan – June 2023, approximately 150,000 tonnes of fertilizer were imported, with the majority being NPKs (40%) and urea (24%). Nonetheless, imports during this period remain lower than the corresponding periods in 2022. Furthermore, there has been a significant overall decrease in fertilizer prices across the country compared to the start of the year.
In Nigeria, there have been continuous increase in demand owing to increased farming activities despite the increasing retail cost. With the availability of fertilizer raw materials, there has been continuous blending of NPK fertilizers in the country. However, there has been a reported shortage of supply of some NPK brands resulting from low production because of Urea supply shortages, which is also responsible for the rising retail Urea cost. Fertilizers are still generally available in sufficient quantities in the market.
In Togo, the government has made provision for some fertilizers for the farming season. State-ordered fertilizer stocks are set up in all localities of the country. There is an increase in outlets this year. About twenty points of sale have been created, added to the 215 old ones. The state-guaranteed fertilizer stock is sufficient to fully cover the demand for fertilizer by farmers, which has intensified since planting began. In addition to the residual stocks of the previous season, the volume of fertilizer ordered in 2023 amounts to 123,500 tons (including 83,500 tons of NPK 15-15-15 and 40,000 tons of urea). It represents more than 100% of the annual need coverage rate estimated at 85,000 tons of fertilizer. Of the 123,500 tons, 87% are already available, or 107,500 tons of fertilizer. The rest of the order is being delivered.
Availability and Affordability: Some sense of normalcy gradually returning in the sub-region. We are witnessing mixed outlooks in terms of consumption from country to country in comparison to 2022 season.
Largely across West African countries, fertilizer availability is not a major issue, with some countries continually importing despite having sufficient stocks for the season.
Distribution: Despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, fertilizer supply and distribution in West Africa is gradually normalizing. All fertilizer ports and borders are open, apart from Nigeria’s northeast area, which continues to restrict fertilizer movement owing to insecurity and Niger which might likely get import sanctions due to the ongoing coup d’état. Landlocked nations such as Mali and Burkina Faso are using ports in Cote d’Ivoire to import fertilizer.