Overall market risk: East Africa continues to face moderate inflation, largely within manageable bounds, while growth dynamics remain solid. The policy environment is tilted in favor of additional monetary easing, depending on evolving external and domestic pressures.
Kenya posted inflation of about 4.6 % in September amid continued 5 % GDP growth, Tanzania maintained subdued inflation near 3.3–3.4 %, Rwanda’s inflation has eased toward 6.4 %, and Uganda’s headline inflation ticked up to around 4.0 %, all reflecting moderate price pressures across East Africa as growth remains fairly resilient.
Global fertilizer trading remained slow in September, with the urea market on hold pending India’s next NFL tender. Bangladesh and Ethiopia remained active in DAP procurement. Potash prices were steady, while phosphate demand stayed weak, especially in Southern Africa. In Kenya, fertilizer prices were stable with slight declines in DAP (KSh 5,800–6,000) and Urea (KSh 3,500–3,700). The government maintained its subsidy program, offering fertilizers at KSh 2,500 per 50kg bag. In South Africa, MAP prices eased to ZAR 13,100/ton ($723/ton, Durban), marking a $12/ton decline from August.
Availability and Affordability: Fertilizer demand in East Africa is expected to strengthen in September with the onset of the short rains. Regional governments and private sector players are focusing on timely procurement and efficient distribution to meet seasonal demand. In Southern Africa, the upcoming planting season is expected to spur activity, though logistical bottlenecks and global price volatility remain key risks to watch.
Kenya imported about 505,000 MT of fertilizers by July 2025—67% of its annual requirement indicating strong supply levels. Rwanda’s One Acre Fund is seeking NPK 17-17-17 for October loading via Mombasa Port, while Tanzania reported early-month DAP shortages. Tanzania’s government is set to phase out the current subsidy post-October 2025 elections but introduced a new program in mid-September. In South Africa, fertilizer availability remained strong, with total imports reaching 750,000 tons by July. Demand for MAP and urea is gradually increasing as the planting season nears.
Distribution: The Beira Port in Mozambique is currently facing heavy congestion, with vessel delays and demurrage extending up to 45 days due to increased import volumes. Freight rates from the Baltic to East Africa and South Africa rose to $78/tonne and $65/tonne respectively, while Middle East rates dropped slightly to $28/tonne and $25/tonne. Kenya’s Mombasa Port remains under pressure from slow vessel turnaround, prompting government investment of KSh 41 billion for expansion. South Africa, meanwhile, is modernizing its ports through a 10-year partnership with Liebherr to enhance crane capacity and logistics efficiency.
Trade facilitation efforts advanced with Kenya and Uganda’s renewed commitment to clear cross-border congestion and South Africa’s collaboration with Zimbabwe to operationalize the Beitbridge One-Stop Border Post.