Overall market risk: While most African currencies remained stable in April 2025, several vulnerable economies continue to face depreciation pressures. In contrast, stronger performers such as Kenya and Morocco are poised for modest gains. Uganda’s shilling is expected to appreciate, supported by robust coffee export earnings, while Kenya’s currency held steady, bolstered by central bank interventions and improved investor confidence. According to the African Development Bank, 21 out of 54 African currencies could depreciate by more than 6% this year, with Nigeria, Egypt, Ethiopia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe among the most at risk. Meanwhile, currencies such as the CFA franc, Kenyan shilling, and Moroccan dirham are projected to appreciate by over 3%.
In East Africa, the March-April-May (MAM) rains were below average, resulting in delayed planting and erratic crop development across the Horn. Southern Africa continues to grapple with the effects of prolonged drought, particularly in Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique, where significant crop losses and yield reductions have been reported.
In the fertilizer market, nitrogen prices continue to climb, driven by expectations around India’s upcoming tender and the continued absence of Chinese exports. However, buyers remain reluctant to accept higher price levels. The phosphate market has also seen sharp price increases, influenced by new U.S. tariffs and growing Indian demand amid constrained Chinese supply. Potash prices are trending upward as well, reflecting tightening global availability.
Availability and Affordability: In the East Africa region, where the main planting season is underway and nearing completion in some areas, fertilizer demand and supply remain strong. Traders are actively sourcing and distributing fertilizers to meet farmers’ needs across the region. Ethiopia recently received bids for its DAP tender issued last month and floated a new tender to procure DAP and granular urea for the ongoing season.
In Kenya, approximately 200,000 metric tons of fertilizer were imported between January and March—representing about 30% of the country’s annual consumption and marking a 39% increase compared to the same period last year. This surge reflects growing demand and increased usage. However, procurement delays at the Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA) have raised concerns within the sector.
In the south, demand for potash remains high. In South Africa alone, fertilizer imports (MAP, MOP and Urea) reached 142,000 metric tonnes in February. Overall, current stock levels across the region appear adequate to meet prevailing demand.
Distribution: Overall, ports are operating normally with minimal disruptions. However, the continued Red sea crisis disruptions and the reroute by shippers to Cape of Good Hope has increased transit time and activities at the port raising the costs. Freight costs from Baltic have seen a slight dip compared to March. Rates from the Baltic to South Africa(40 tonnes) and the East Coast(15-20 tonnes) are $41 and $77 per tonne, respectively, while rates from the Middle East to the same destinations rose slightly to $22 and $26 per tonne (for same tonnage).