Overall market risk: Macroeconomic conditions across Eastern and Southern Africa remained broadly stable through October 2025. Inflation continued to ease in most countries, supported by stable currencies and improved external inflows. In Kenya, the Central Bank’s policy rate cut early in the month signaled a shift toward a more accommodative monetary stance. In South Africa, the Reserve Bank revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 1.4%, citing easing inflationary pressures and a stronger rand. Overall, price trends across the region reflected contained inflation within manageable bounds.
In the fertilizer market, global trading activity remained subdued, keeping prices soft during the first half of the month before rebounding slightly after India concluded its 2-million-tonne urea tender. Ethiopia emerged as a key phosphate buyer after finalizing its DAP deal. Across East Africa, fertilizer prices showed little movement: in Kenya, DAP traded between KSh 5,800 and 6,400 per 50 kg bag, and urea between KSh 3,500 and 3,600; while in South Africa, MAP averaged about ZAR 702 per tonne (Durban), reflecting a $20-per-tonne month-on-month decline.
Availability and Affordability: Fertilizer availability across the region remained generally strong, though with varied country experiences influenced by procurement changes, foreign exchange constraints, and logistical bottlenecks. In Ethiopia, the Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corporation (EABC) launched tenders for 549,000 tonnes of DAP and 449,600 tonnes of urea. The urea tender was later cancelled, and the DAP volume reduced to 244,000 tonnes. The DAP deal has now been finalized, and producers are set to begin loading in November. In Rwanda, One Acre Fund initiated sourcing of 4,500 tonnes of NPK 17-17-17, signalling sustained fertilizer demand from smallholder programs.
In Tanzania, the national fertilizer subsidy program remains active, sustaining strong demand for DAP and urea. Additional shipments of DAP, NPS, and TSP are scheduled to arrive by the end of November to meet seasonal requirements. In Kenya, about 531,600 tonnes of fertilizer had been imported by September, representing around 70% of the annual requirement, slightly up from last year. The government continues to cushion farmers through its subsidy program, offering select fertilizers at KSh 2,500 per 50 kg bag ahead of the short rains.
In Zambia, market conditions remain stable, though emerging shortages have been reported, largely due to severe congestion at Beira Port. To avoid extended delays, some importers have rerouted cargo through Walvis Bay. In Malawi, persistent foreign exchange shortages and rising inflation continue to constrain fertilizer imports. The Affordable Inputs Programme (AIP) remains operational but has been affected by supplier insolvencies. Imports during January–September were 49% lower than the 337,400 tonnes recorded during the same period in 2024. In South Africa, fertilizer availability remains stable, supported by steady inflows of CAN and MOP shipments and strong market confidence heading into the new season.
Distribution: Port and logistics operations across the region were mixed in October, with notable disruptions in key corridors. Beira Port in Mozambique is experiencing severe congestion, with demurrage times rising sharply from 17 days to 41 days. The congestion has significantly affected fertilizer movements into Zambia and Malawi, forcing some importers to reroute shipments through Walvis Bay. Meanwhile, Kenya’s Port of Mombasa is undergoing a KSh 41 billion expansion aimed at increasing handling capacity and reducing congestion amid growing trade volumes.
In South Africa, the Port of Durban commissioned four new ship-to-shore cranes at the Durban Container Terminal (Pier 2) on October 22, a move expected to improve cargo-handling efficiency and vessel turnaround times as part of Transnet’s modernization plan. At the regional level, trade facilitation efforts advanced with Kenya and Uganda approving the feasibility study for the Kisumu–Busia–Malaba cross-border highway, supported by the African Development Bank, which will enhance customs efficiency and boost regional fertilizer flow.
Freight rates also recorded a modest increase, with Baltic–East Africa and South Africa routes averaging $103 and $79 per tonne, and Middle East–East Africa and South Africa routes ranging between $29 and $25 per tonne, respectively, by the end of October.