Month: November 2025

West Africa

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Overall market risk: In October 2025, fertilizer markets across West Africa remained stable and well-supplied, supported by strong imports, efficient logistics, and adequate stock levels. Demand eased in northern areas after the main cropping season but stayed moderate in southern regions due to ongoing vegetable and perennial crop production. Prices were generally stable, with Urea and key NPK blends widely available. Overall, the market remained balanced and well-functioning, though stakeholders continued to monitor global price and shipping cost fluctuations.

Côte d’Ivoire: In October 2025, Côte d’Ivoire’s fertilizer market remained resilient and well-supplied, supported by cumulative imports estimated between 560,000 and 570,000 tons as of September—significantly higher than volumes recorded in 2023 and 2024. Although early October saw a brief slowdown linked to the presidential elections, activity quickly rebounded as importers moved to secure stocks ahead of the cotton tender closing in November. Demand during the month was moderate, mainly driven by vegetable cultivation, while fertilizer use for cocoa, cotton, and cereals remained subdued. Market prices for major products were largely stable, with urea averaging 21,000 FCFA ($35), NPK 0-23-19 at 19,500 FCFA ($33), and NPK 15-15-15 at 22,000 FCFA ($37). On the regulated cotton market, official prices, supported by a government subsidy of 25.3 billion FCFA—have remained unchanged for three consecutive years. Overall, the fertilizer market is expected to stay balanced in the near term, though global price volatility and elevated logistics costs continue to pose potential risks.

Ghana: In October, Ghana’s fertilizer market remained stable in terms of supply but showed mixed price movements across products and regions. Adequate stock levels were maintained nationwide, supported by efficient port operations and steady imports—largely from Russia, which continued as the leading supplier without disruption. Demand slowed in the northern regions following the close of the major cropping season, while southern Ghana sustained moderate year-round activity driven by vegetable and perennial crop production. Prices for NPK fertilizers declined by 4–11% across regions, Ammonium Sulphate remained stable, and Urea recorded a modest uptick due to seasonal demand, global price adjustments, and the cedi’s recent appreciation. Urea, Ammonium Sulphate, and key NPK blends (20-10-10 and 23-10-5) remained the most traded fertilizers, widely available across retail and wholesale markets. Ongoing support from MoFA, COCOBOD, and private sector partners such as Solevo underscored Ghana’s continued commitment to ensuring fertilizer access and agricultural productivity ahead of the 2025 National Farmers Day celebration.

Nigeria: In October, Nigeria’s fertilizer market experienced a noticeable slowdown as the country transitioned from the rainy to the dry season. With rainfall ceasing in most northern regions, wet-season farming activities drew to a close, shifting farmers’ attention toward harvesting and storage. This seasonal change led to a sharp decline in fertilizer demand nationwide, leaving agrodealers with ample stock and minimal sales activity. Blending plants scaled back operations to manage existing inventories, while overall market activity remained subdued. Prices for major fertilizer types continued to edge downward in line with the typical end-of-season trend. Urea prices fell by about 1.1%, influenced by earlier reductions in ex-factory rates, while NPK 15-15-15 and NPK 20-10-10 both recorded modest declines of 0.4%. Looking ahead, limited but gradual demand is anticipated as dry-season farming preparations begin, particularly in northern areas where irrigation-based cultivation is more common.

Availability and Affordability: In October 2025, fertilizer availability across West Africa remained stable, with adequate stock levels and no major supply disruptions. Demand slowed following the end of the rainy season, especially in northern areas, while southern regions maintained moderate year-round demand. Urea and common NPK blends were widely available across markets, and overall, the fertilizer sector remained well balanced, supported by strong inventories and efficient distribution, despite ongoing concerns about global price and shipping volatility.

Distribution: In October 2025, fertilizer transportation and distribution across West Africa remained largely efficient, with ports operating smoothly and adequate trucking capacity supporting steady product movement to inland and cross-border markets. Coordination among importers, logistics firms, and government agencies continued to facilitate timely deliveries, despite a seasonal slowdown in demand. Minor disruptions were reported in a few isolated areas due to security (North East Nigeria) and road conditions, but overall logistics performance remained stable, ensuring reliable fertilizer availability throughout the region.

East Africa and Southern Africa

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Overall market risk: Macroeconomic conditions across Eastern and Southern Africa remained broadly stable through October 2025. Inflation continued to ease in most countries, supported by stable currencies and improved external inflows. In Kenya, the Central Bank’s policy rate cut early in the month signaled a shift toward a more accommodative monetary stance. In South Africa, the Reserve Bank revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 1.4%, citing easing inflationary pressures and a stronger rand. Overall, price trends across the region reflected contained inflation within manageable bounds.

In the fertilizer market, global trading activity remained subdued, keeping prices soft during the first half of the month before rebounding slightly after India concluded its 2-million-tonne urea tender. Ethiopia emerged as a key phosphate buyer after finalizing its DAP deal. Across East Africa, fertilizer prices showed little movement: in Kenya, DAP traded between KSh 5,800 and 6,400 per 50 kg bag, and urea between KSh 3,500 and 3,600; while in South Africa, MAP averaged about ZAR 702 per tonne (Durban), reflecting a $20-per-tonne month-on-month decline.

Availability and Affordability: Fertilizer availability across the region remained generally strong, though with varied country experiences influenced by procurement changes, foreign exchange constraints, and logistical bottlenecks. In Ethiopia, the Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses Corporation (EABC) launched tenders for 549,000 tonnes of DAP and 449,600 tonnes of urea. The urea tender was later cancelled, and the DAP volume reduced to 244,000 tonnes. The DAP deal has now been finalized, and producers are set to begin loading in November. In Rwanda, One Acre Fund initiated sourcing of 4,500 tonnes of NPK 17-17-17, signalling sustained fertilizer demand from smallholder programs.

In Tanzania, the national fertilizer subsidy program remains active, sustaining strong demand for DAP and urea. Additional shipments of DAP, NPS, and TSP are scheduled to arrive by the end of November to meet seasonal requirements. In Kenya, about 531,600 tonnes of fertilizer had been imported by September, representing around 70% of the annual requirement, slightly up from last year. The government continues to cushion farmers through its subsidy program, offering select fertilizers at KSh 2,500 per 50 kg bag ahead of the short rains.

In Zambia, market conditions remain stable, though emerging shortages have been reported, largely due to severe congestion at Beira Port. To avoid extended delays, some importers have rerouted cargo through Walvis Bay. In Malawi, persistent foreign exchange shortages and rising inflation continue to constrain fertilizer imports. The Affordable Inputs Programme (AIP) remains operational but has been affected by supplier insolvencies. Imports during January–September were 49% lower than the 337,400 tonnes recorded during the same period in 2024. In South Africa, fertilizer availability remains stable, supported by steady inflows of CAN and MOP shipments and strong market confidence heading into the new season.

Distribution: Port and logistics operations across the region were mixed in October, with notable disruptions in key corridors. Beira Port in Mozambique is experiencing severe congestion, with demurrage times rising sharply from 17 days to 41 days. The congestion has significantly affected fertilizer movements into Zambia and Malawi, forcing some importers to reroute shipments through Walvis Bay. Meanwhile, Kenya’s Port of Mombasa is undergoing a KSh 41 billion expansion aimed at increasing handling capacity and reducing congestion amid growing trade volumes.

In South Africa, the Port of Durban commissioned four new ship-to-shore cranes at the Durban Container Terminal (Pier 2) on October 22, a move expected to improve cargo-handling efficiency and vessel turnaround times as part of Transnet’s modernization plan. At the regional level, trade facilitation efforts advanced with Kenya and Uganda approving the feasibility study for the Kisumu–Busia–Malaba cross-border highway, supported by the African Development Bank, which will enhance customs efficiency and boost regional fertilizer flow.

Freight rates also recorded a modest increase, with Baltic–East Africa and South Africa routes averaging $103 and $79 per tonne, and Middle East–East Africa and South Africa routes ranging between $29 and $25 per tonne, respectively, by the end of October.