Month: August 2025

East Africa and Southern Africa

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Overall market risk: The African Development Bank (AfDB) projects Africa’s economic growth to reach 4.3% in 2025, up from 3.7% in 2024, with East Africa leading the expansion. However, persistent poverty, limited economic opportunities, climate change impacts, and weak governance further exacerbated by rising living costs fuel widespread social frustration. Meanwhile, the World Bank forecasts that inflation in East Africa will decline to 5% or lower in 2025, driven by tighter monetary policies, fewer supply chain disruptions, and more stable currencies. 

In the fertilizer market, Ethiopia’s EABC recently called for revised bids on DAP and urea, extending the deadline. This, combined with India’s urea tender announcement, has put upward pressure on Urea prices. As a result, prices in Egypt and Algeria surged beyond $400/ton FOB. The phosphate market remains stagnant, with China notably absent, reportedly stockpiling ahead of the spring season. Meanwhile, potash prices are expected to rise amid growing optimism from suppliers.

Availability and Affordability: Fertilizer traders in the East Africa region are preparing to import fertilizers ahead of the main season starting in March. In Kenya substantial amounts of various fertilizer products from some main importers such as Midgulf, Nitron, Yara, Uralchem and Madden is already being brought in. KTDA is also in the process of seeking for proposals to source for Tea fertilizers for farmers. EAC has also started discussions on how they can collectively reduce the price of fertilizers for the region. Rwanda has continued to support its farmers through subsidy programs such as Crop Intensification Program (CIP) ensuring affordability and accessibility. Tanzania has reported adequate stocks for 2024 and positive carryover stocks to start off the season.

In the southern region, Malawi has reported to having about 93K tons of fertilizers in the country. With demand slowing down as the the planting season comes to an end, this is a positive outlook. In Mozambique, farmers continue to face the effects of the cyclone and protests which have hindered the accessibility of farm inputs. In South Africa, the available inventories appear sufficient to meet the country’s demand for the rest of the cropping season. In Zambia, fertilizer market supply constraints have eased with operations largely stabilizing following improvements in the political and logistical environment in Mozambique.

Distribution: Most ports and border points are operating normally with minimal disruptions, Trading activities is picking up in the East Africa region while it is slowing down in the southern Africa region. However, ongoing political unrest and demonstrations at Mozambique’s Nacala and Beira ports have disrupted operations, leading to longer turnaround times, delays, and increased costs. These challenges have prompted landlocked countries like Zambia and Malawi to explore alternative ports, such as Dar es Salaam. 

West Africa

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Overall market risk: At the start of 2025, fertilizer demand across West Africa remained low due to the conclusion of the main agricultural season in the previous year. As a result, market activity slowed significantly, reflecting reduced input requirements from farmers. Off-season cultivation, especially vegetables and irrigated crops, continued in some selected areas, sustaining minimal fertilizer use. These off-season activities provided some support to fertilizer sales but had limited impact on overall regional demand. In general, demand was below peak-season levels.

Côte d’Ivoire: Fertilizer demand remained low due to the end of the main farming season, with activity mainly driven by off-season vegetable and irrigated crops. However, 2024 imports of 600,000 tons, well above the 350,000-ton annual need, ensured strong supply and reduced shortage risks. This surplus allows better stock planning, especially for cotton and cocoa, with cocoa fertilizer use surpassing 100,000 tons for a second year. Increased cocoa revenues are expected to boost farmers’ ability to purchase fertilizers for the next season.

Ghana: Fertilizer prices for key products like Urea, Ammonium Sulphate, and NPK 23-10-5 remained stable, supported by low off-season demand. Fertilizer availability was not a concern, but stakeholder activity remained minimal as the new year began. The incoming agricultural leadership announced plans to promote household gardening, while farmer associations urged the government to reinstate fertilizer subsidies to ease production costs.

Nigeria: Nigeria’s fertilizer market also experienced reduced demand due to the ongoing dry season, with only a gradual pickup in the north where dry-season farming is more common. Although the expected surge in demand hasn’t materialized, agrodealers remain hopeful. NPK prices stayed largely stable, with minor decreases, while Urea prices showed some instability due to shifting ex-factory rates. Overall, fertilizer availability remains sufficient, and there is no current pressure on supply.

Senegal: At the start of 2025, agricultural activity in Senegal is centered on the off-season, especially irrigated rice cultivation, which is vital for food security and reducing import reliance. However, access to agricultural inputs remains limited, with DAP and urea in particularly high demand due to their critical role in rice production.

Availability and Affordability: Fertilizer availability remained strong across West Africa in January 2025, with countries like Ghana, Nigeria, and Côte d’Ivoire reporting adequate stocks and no major shortages. Senegal also received limited volumes, ensuring some availability to support off-season activities, particularly irrigated rice production. This regional supply stability was supported by high import volumes, efficient port operations, and carryover stocks from the previous year. However, affordability remains a key concern, driven by currency fluctuations, inflation, and high transportation costs. While stable or reduced prices provided some relief for off-season farmers, particularly in accessible areas, rural and remote communities continue to face access challenges.

Distribution: In January 2025, fertilizer imports and distribution across West Africa continued smoothly, with minimal logistical disruptions reported. Port operations remained efficient in key entry points such as Tema and Takoradi in Ghana, Abidjan and San Pedro in Côte d’Ivoire, Apapa and Onne in Nigeria and Dakar Port in Senegal. These ports facilitated steady inflows of fertilizers, supporting adequate supply across regional markets. However, northern Nigeria continued to face access challenges due to persistent insecurity, which disrupted transportation and distribution networks. As a result, farmers in affected areas had trouble obtaining fertilizers compared to other regions with more stable conditions.