Overall market risk: The Deloitte 2025 East Africa Economic Outlook projects strong regional growth, led by Ethiopia (7.2%) and Uganda (6%+), with steady momentum in Kenya (5.3%) and Tanzania (5.6%), while Zambia (4%) lags but shows resilience from agriculture, mining, and debt restructuring. Growth is fueled by agriculture, energy, infrastructure, and trade, though risks such as high debt, inflation, currency pressures, political uncertainty, and climate shocks persist.
East Africa is in a transition between harvests and new planting. Ethiopia has just completed the Belg maize harvest with mixed results and is beginning Meher (main-season) planting, while Kenya’s main-season maize is developing well and rice planting preparations are underway, though second-season maize in the northwest is delayed. Uganda has largely completed main-season harvests in its bimodal areas, with other regions still in crop development, while Rwanda is wrapping up a favorable harvest and Burundi’s is ending below average.
In Southern Africa, the 2024/25 main-season harvests are completed with near-average outputs, and attention has shifted to winter wheat.
At the beginning of the month, the nitrogen market experienced a sharp price increase, driven by India’s RCF tender for 1.3 million tons, which pushed up prices in Brazil, China, Egypt, and Iran. The phosphate market is also showing bullish momentum, again fueled by India’s strong presence. In contrast, the potash market has remained stable, with demand largely concentrated in Asia. By the end of the month, India continued to be active in the market, seeking an additional 2 million tons of Urea and DAP, while new demand for potash emerged from Bangladesh.
Availability and Affordability: Overall, no major fertilizer shortages have been reported, with most countries maintaining adequate stocks to meet demand. In Kenya, concerns over DAP availability have surfaced, though the impact is limited given sufficient supplies of NP products. The government has announced plans to distribute 12.5 million bags (625,000 MT) of planting and topdressing fertilizer in the 2025/26 financial year to boost yields, strengthen food security, and stabilize food prices.
Tanzania is currently in the market for DAP, while Ethiopia has secured its seasonal requirements through recently awarded DAP and Urea tenders. In Southern Africa, demand for Ammonium Nitrate is rising in Zambia; in Malawi, One Acre Fund has yet to finalize its Urea tender; and in South Africa, MAP demand is increasing, driving prices upward.
Distribution: Overall, ports across Africa are operating with minimal disruptions. Congestion has however been reported in Beira with clearing taking more than 20 days increasing the cost build up. Freight costs showed mixed trends in May. Rates from the Baltic to East Africa’s coast declined to $74 while those to South Africa slightly rose to $58. From the Middle East, freight costs dropped slightly, reaching $29 to South Africa and $29 to the East Coast.