Month: December 2024

Overall market risk: In December 2024, West Africa’s fertilizer market experienced varied trends influenced by seasonal and regional dynamics. Across the region, the market reflected weak demand due to ongoing harvest and post-harvest activities, although off-season crops like vegetables and rice kept fertilizer use steady in some locations. The start of the dry season farming in some areas supported fertilizer application. Subsidized fertilizers remained a key feature, with prices relatively stable across most countries, ensuring accessibility for farmers. 

There was smuggling of subsidized fertilizers, and currency fluctuations in some locations. Some middlemen leveraged favorable exchange rates for input purchases. Increased use of liquid fertilizers by vegetable growers highlighted changing farming practices. Logistical challenges and high costs persisted, despite government efforts to improve infrastructure and support smallholders in some of the locations. Meanwhile, dependency on imports left some markets vulnerable to global price shocks and logistical disruptions. 

Overall, the region showed resilience in ensuring fertilizer availability, but issues like affordability, smuggling, and infrastructural limitations require further attention to support sustainable agricultural growth.

Côte d’Ivoire: In December 2024, the fertilizer market remained inactive with low demand, due to ongoing harvest and post-harvest activities. Off-season crops, particularly market gardening, and irrigated crops, kept demand steady. The return of rains supported fertilizer application for off-season crops. Fertilizer supply remained sufficient, with imports surpassing 600,000 MT, well above the estimated annual demand of 350,000 MT. Fertilizer prices remained stable, with Urea at CFA 21,000 (35 USD) per 50kg, and NPK 15-15-15 at CFA 22,000 (37 USD). Cotton fertilizers also saw no price changes. Despite low demand, the supply chain remained robust, with main importers ensuring adequate stock levels. The impact of the Ukraine-Russia crisis was minimal, with alternative sourcing strategies maintaining a steady supply.

Gambia: December is a pivotal month in the agricultural calendar, marked by high trade activity and input purchases for dry-season rice and horticultural farming. Despite stable fertilizer prices at D1,100 per 50kg bag, the rising GMD exchange rate impacts affordability, while Senegalese buyers exploit cross-border price differences. The use of liquid fertilizers is increasing among vegetable growers.  Subsidized fertilizers remain accessible, with unsold stocks sufficient to meet dry-season demand, although smuggling through border markets persists. Nursery preparations for rice and vegetables are underway, supported by manure used by commercial farmers to meet export demands. Government initiatives and projects like ROOTS and GRAV continue to aid key rice-growing regions. Global disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine war, including rising transportation costs and maritime challenges, have affected fertilizer distribution. Despite this, the current stock levels are adequate for dry-season irrigation, ensuring availability through agents, vendors, and large enterprises.

Ghana: In December, fertilizer prices in the country remained steady for products like Urea, Ammonium Sulphate, and NPK 23-10-5, reflecting reduced off-season farming demand. Prices stood at GHS 288.00 ($19.59)for Ammonium Sulphate, GHS 422.69 ($28.76) for Urea, and GHS 524.55 ($35.69) for NPK 23-10-5, with slight dollar variations due to the appreciation of the Ghana cedi.  Fertilizers were consistently available throughout the year, with sufficient stocks reported across retail shops nationwide. Farmers have begun early purchases for the 2025 planting season, anticipating potential price increases. Despite the absence of major tenders, supply stability has been maintained. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has not disrupted fertilizer imports, ensuring uninterrupted availability.

Liberia: In December 2023, Liberia’s fertilizer market experienced stable prices due to reduced farming activities during the mid-dry season. Fertilizer demand remained low as farmers focused on harvests and land preparation, affecting agrodealer sales. Prices for NPK 15-15-15 and Urea ranged between $43.65 and $48.50 per 50kg bag, unchanged from the previous month. Despite sufficient supply, logistical challenges and reliance on imports kept fertilizer costs high compared to neighboring countries. The exchange rate, now at USD 1 to LD 180, influenced market transactions, predominantly conducted in U.S. dollars, posing accessibility barriers for many farmers. Urban centers like Monrovia reported adequate stocks, but rural distribution faced delays and higher transportation costs. Some farmers near borders sourced fertilizers from neighboring countries with better supply chains. The Ukraine-Russia conflict continued to disrupt global fertilizer markets, causing reduced imports, higher prices, and strained supply chains in Liberia. Efforts to enhance infrastructure, streamline distribution, and implement subsidies are crucial to improving access and affordability for smallholder farmers and ensuring agricultural productivity and food security.

Nigeria: From November to December, dry-season farming activities began in Nigeria, particularly in the Northern region, leading to an increase in fertilizer demand and a slight rise in fertilizer prices. NPK prices in the north increased due to the onset of dry-season farming, while prices in the south remained stable due to lower demand. Urea prices declined slightly, following a reduction in ex-factory prices. In December, the average retail price of Urea decreased by 0.5%, while NPK 15-15-15 rose by 0.2%, and NPK 20-10-10 saw a marginal increase of 0.06%. Fertilizer availability remained stable with no reported shortages, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict had minimal impact on Nigeria’s fertilizer supply chain.

Senegal: In December 2024, following a review of the crop year’s performance, lessons were learned, and attention shifted to planning for the next season. Both public and private sectors faced limitations, especially in the subsidy program for small-scale producers. While the production season was largely successful, subsidies remain insufficient, covering less than 40% of farmers’ needs. On the open market, fertilizer prices showed some changes, with Urea stable at CFA 18,000 and NPK 6-20-10 rising by 38.33%. Magnesium Sulfate and Potassium Sulfate prices decreased, while Zinc Sulfate remained unchanged. For the 2024 dry season, 20,500 MT of Urea and 6,000 MT of DAP are available, with distribution underway. The cold off-season campaign has also secured significant volumes of fertilizers, such as NPK 9-23-30, NPK 10-10-20, and Urea. Despite the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict, fertilizer supply in Senegal remains stable, and early preparations have mitigated potential risks to availability.

Sierra Leone: As 2024 ends, Sierra Leone’s fertilizer market faces significant challenges driven by global and domestic factors. The country’s heavy reliance on imports exposes it to price volatility and supply disruptions, exacerbated by the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which has raised global fertilizer prices and freight costs. Local production or blending facilities are absent, increasing dependence on international suppliers and straining supply chains. Fertilizer prices remain stable but vary by region, with Urea and NPK 15:15:15 priced between NLe 1,000 ($44) and NLe 1,750 ($78) per 50kg bag. Availability is inconsistent, with urban centers like Freetown, Bo, and Makeni having better stocks than rural areas. High transportation costs and logistical challenges hinder distribution to remote regions, leaving many rural farmers underserved. Despite a 9% reduction in fuel prices, fertilizer costs have not decreased, likely due to inflation, poor infrastructure, and supply chain rigidity. Proposed solutions include establishing regional fertilizer blending plants to reduce reliance on imports and improve supply chain resilience. Improved infrastructure and rural distribution strategies are also crucial for ensuring equitable access and supporting smallholder farmers.

Togo: In December 2024, fertilizer demand in Togo decreased overall due to harvesting and post-harvest activities, though off-season crops in the south, such as vegetables and irrigated rice, maintained moderate demand. Urea and NPK 15-15-15 fertilizers saw consistent use, with the supply remaining ample. The country had over 62,000 MT of Urea and 4,000 MT of NPK 15-15-15 in stock, ensuring sufficient coverage for off-season farming. These fertilizers, sold at subsidized prices of CFA 18,000 (around $30) for food crops and CFA 14,000 ($23) for cotton, were distributed through 232 sales outlets across 400 counties. Demand remained low in the north due to ongoing harvests, while the south continued to use moderate amounts of fertilizers. AgroBio NPK 4-2-2 organic fertilizer was also available in small quantities (10 MT), supporting agroecological practices in the south. Togo remained largely unaffected by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, with no significant disruptions to fertilizer availability, which exceeded 66,000 MT to meet off-season needs.

Availability and Affordability: As the dry season starts in West Africa, fertilizer demand declines, leading to moderate price stability in many areas. Supply remains sufficient, with slight price reductions in some countries due to reduced demand. However, fertilizer affordability is a major concern, driven by inflation and currency fluctuations. Government subsidies and imports have helped stabilize prices in some regions. Despite this, high transport costs and reliance on imports continue to limit broader affordability, especially for smallholder farmers. These challenges are compounded by logistical issues in rural areas. The overall situation reflects ongoing difficulties in making fertilizers accessible and affordable across the region.

Distribution: In December 2024, fertilizer importation and logistics across West Africa were largely smooth, with minimal disruptions and border restrictions. Major entry points facilitated the transport of large fertilizer quantities to markets. In Nigeria, logistics were mostly efficient, though the Northeast region faced challenges due to ongoing security concerns, disrupting supply chains. The National Port Authority played a key role in ensuring the smooth clearance of imports, supporting steady fertilizer flow across the different countries.

Overall market risk: In November, fertilizer markets across West Africa showed varied trends, with demand generally slowing as the rainy season ended and many crops reached harvest stages. However, certain sectors, such as off-season vegetable farming and irrigated crops, maintained some activity, keeping fertilizer demand stable in specific regions. Fertilizer availability remained strong in most areas, with ample stocks to meet both seasonal and off-season needs. Prices for commonly used fertilizers like Urea and NPK remained relatively stable, with some regions benefiting from government subsidies to help offset costs for smallholder farmers.

Despite these positive trends, challenges persist in several areas, including high transportation costs and limited accessibility, particularly for smallholder farmers. In countries heavily reliant on imports, such as those with poor infrastructure or high exchange rate fluctuations, fertilizer prices continue to pose a significant burden. Moreover, the ongoing global supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have increased prices in some regions, threatening agricultural productivity. To mitigate these challenges, governments and agricultural development programs continue to provide support, including fertilizer subsidies and improved seed varieties, although the supply of subsidized fertilizers often remains insufficient to meet the full demand of smallholder farmers. As the dry season progresses, continued support and effective distribution strategies will be essential to maintain stability in the fertilizer market and ensure food security across the region.

Côte d’Ivoire: In November, the fertilizer market remained slow due to the end of the main agricultural season, with most crops in the harvest phase with limited fertilizer demand. Only year-round market gardening and irrigated crops maintained some activity, resulting in low traffic at fertilizer stores. On the supply side, the market remains well-stocked, with fertilizer imports reaching approximately 500,000 MT this year—well above the annual demand of 350,000 MT. Major importers continue to maintain sufficient stocks across all types of fertilizers and crops, strategically positioning supplies to meet off-season needs and fulfill cotton fertilizer orders, including 30,720 MT of urea and 102,000 MT of NPK 15-15-15+6S+1B. Meanwhile, the ongoing cocoa marketing campaign offers farmers a purchase price of CFA 1,800/kg, a 20% increase over the April intermediate harvest, enabling them to invest in fertilizers for upcoming seasons. The return of rains further supports fertilizer application. On the open market, prices remained stable between October and November: a 50 kg bag of Urea averages CFA 21,000 ($35), NPK 0-23-19 costs CFA 19,500 ($33), and NPK 15-15-15 is priced at CFA 22,000 ($37). Cotton fertilizer prices also stayed unchanged from last year, with urea at CFA 17,050 ($28) and NPK 15-15-15+6S+1B at CFA 18,100 ($30) per 50 kg bag.

Gambia: November marks the end of the rainy season and the conclusion of cereal cultivation, except for rice, signaling the start of the horticultural cropping season. Farmers are preparing nurseries across the country, with large-scale commercial farmers leading the sector. Many smallholder farmers use manure, such as groundnut shells, cow dung, compost, and bird droppings, which they collect at little to no cost, though transportation remains a major expense. There were no fertilizer imports recorded in November, but existing stocks are sufficient to meet the needs of commercial and dry-season rice farmers. Fertilizer prices remain subsidized at D1,100 per 50 kg bag (CFA 10,000). The government, along with agricultural development projects like ROOTS, P2RS, GRAV, and GICAF, continues to support dry-season rice farmers with improved seeds and fertilizers, particularly in key rice-growing regions such as the North Bank and South Bank of the Central River Region and the Upper River Region. The price of fertilizer remains stable at D1,100 per 50 kg bag for both Urea and NPK, with strict regulations to prevent the sale of subsidized fertilizer outside the country.

Ghana: Fertilizer prices in Ghana remained stable between October and November 2024, reflecting a balanced demand-and-supply dynamic in the market. Key products such as Ammonium Sulphate, Urea, and NPK 23-10-5 maintained their prices, with Ammonium Sulphate selling at GHS 288.00 ($18.57) per 50kg bag, Urea at GHS 422.69 ($27.26), and NPK 23-10-5 at GHS 524.55 ($33.83), all showing no price variation. Fertilizer availability is secure, supported by free distribution under the World Bank-funded aggregator system. Additionally, the Ghanaian government is supplying seeds and fertilizers to smallholder and commercial farmers to address drought-related grain losses, aiming to produce 360,000 MT of paddy rice and 770,000 metric tons of maize within 120 days, ensuring food system restoration.

Liberia: As of November, Liberia is entering the dry season, leading to a natural slowdown in farming activities and a reduced demand for fertilizers. However, agro-dealers face challenges due to high fertilizer costs, primarily driven by additional charges at the Freeport of Monrovia and Buchanan seaport, which are passed on to farmers. Many rural farmers are turning to border suppliers near Guinea and Ivory Coast to bypass these central dealers and avoid high transportation costs, exacerbated by poor road conditions. Although road repairs are underway to improve infrastructure and distribution, fertilizer affordability remains a major issue. Despite a slight 3% drop in prices this month, fertilizers are still costly compared to neighboring countries, with prices ranging from $43.65 to $48.50 per 50kg bag of NPK 15-15-15 and Urea. Most transactions are still in U.S. dollars, limiting accessibility for farmers who rely on the Liberian dollar. Although the exchange rate has improved slightly, it has not significantly impacted fertilizer prices, leaving many smallholder farmers struggling with high costs and limited access.

Nigeria: Nigeria has entered the off-farming season, marked by the dry season across regions, leading to reduced demand for fertilizers and a slowdown in NPK fertilizer blending as most plants halt activities. Agrodealers have largely maintained stable prices for NPK fertilizers, with slight price drops in some areas due to minimal demand, while Urea prices have risen marginally due to an increase in ex-factory prices from ₦31,000 to ₦33,000. In November, average retail prices of Urea increased by 0.8% to ₦703,460 ($417) per MT, while NPK 15-15-15 prices fell slightly by 0.02% to ₦938,240 ($556) per MT, and NPK 20-10-10 prices remained steady at ₦818,140 ($484) per MT. Despite these shifts, Nigeria has sufficient fertilizers from wet season blending to meet dry-season farming needs, with potential demand increases anticipated in the Northern region as preparations for dry-season farming begin. These November price trends reflect a higher exchange rate of ₦1,688 per $1, up from ₦1,665 in October 2024.

Senegal: In November, as the farming season concluded and some farmers began preparing for dry-season cultivation, optimism grew about accessing subsidized fertilizers. However, the subsidy program continues to face significant challenges, particularly for smallholder farmers. In many regions, the supply of subsidized fertilizers remains inadequate, covering less than 30% of actual needs and limiting its impact on improving productivity. On the open market, fertilizer prices showed mixed trends. A 50 kg bag of Urea remained relatively stable at CFA 18,000 (US$28.80), a slight 2.88% increase from CFA 18,333 (US$35.55) the previous month. NPK 6-20-10 saw a sharp rise of 38.33%, reaching CFA 16,666 (US$26.67) from CFA 12,050 (US$19.28), while NPK 20-20-20 held steady at CFA 45,000 (US$73.48). Other inputs saw price drops: magnesium sulphates decreased by 12.5% to CFA 8,750 (US$14.00) from CFA 10,500 (US$17.85), and sulphate of potash fell by 2.98% to CFA 20,375 (US$32.60) from CFA 21,000 (US$35.70). Zinc sulphate prices, however, remained unchanged at CFA 60,000.

Sierra Leone: Sierra Leone’s fertilizer market is highly dependent on imports, making it vulnerable to global disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia conflict, which have driven up prices and strained supply chains. As of November 2024, fertilizer prices remain stable but high, primarily influenced by import costs rather than seasonal demand. The depreciation of the leone and persistent inflation continue to increase procurement and transportation costs, making fertilizers unaffordable for many smallholder farmers despite a 9% drop in fuel prices. Prices for common fertilizers such as NPK 15:15:15 and Urea vary across regions, with costs ranging from NLe 1,000 ($44) to NLe 1,750 ($78) per 50kg bag, while distribution remains generally accessible. However, these affordability challenges, compounded by limited domestic production capacity and inefficiencies in the supply chain, threaten agricultural productivity and food security in a farming-reliant nation.

Togo: In November 2024, fertilizer demand dropped sharply in the north due to the harvest season, while in the south, vegetable crops and off-season production drove a recovery in demand. This increased demand poses no supply concerns, with 67,785 MT of fertilizer—63,093 MT of Urea and 4,692 MT of NPK 15-15-15—readily available in warehouses, more than sufficient to meet farmers’ off-season needs. The supply is further bolstered by 135,355 MT of fertilizer mobilized through the subsidy program, exceeding the initial target of 85,000 MT. This includes 83,595 MT of Urea and 51,760 MT of NPK 15-15-15. Subsidized fertilizer prices remain unchanged for the past two years, at CFA 18,000 ($30) per 50 kg bag for food crops and CFA 14,000 ($23) per 50 kg bag for cotton fertilizers, including Urea and NPK 12-20-18+5S+1B.

Availability and Affordability: The dry season begins across West Africa, and fertilizer demand is still decreasing, resulting in moderate price stability in many areas. Fertilizer availability remains manageable, with adequate supplies for current needs, though some countries are seeing slight price reductions due to declining demand. However, affordability remains a critical concern throughout the region as local currency fluctuations and inflationary pressures keep fertilizer prices elevated. While government subsidies and imports have helped stabilize prices in some areas, high transport costs and continued dependency on imports limit broader affordability, especially for smallholder farmers.

Distribution: In November, fertilizer importation and logistics across West Africa ran smoothly, with few disruptions and minimal border restrictions. Large quantities of fertilizer were successfully transported through major entry points and distributed to markets. In Nigeria, logistical operations were mostly efficient, though the Northeast region experienced transportation challenges due to ongoing security concerns, which affected supply chains there. The National Port Authority across the region played a crucial role in ensuring efficient logistics and expediting clearance for fertilizer imports, as long as proper documentation was provided. Overall, strong coordination between logistics providers and regulatory authorities helped maintain a steady flow of fertilizers, supporting agricultural activities as the harvest season continued.