Overall market risk: In October, fertilizer demand across West Africa showed notable variations as agricultural seasons began to wind down in many areas. In regions focused on cotton, cereals, and cocoa, the demand for fertilizer declined as these crops advanced to late growth or harvest stages. However, vegetable and other year-round crops continued to support some market demand, particularly where regions saw favorable rainfall that sustained planting and crop growth into the off-season. In key agricultural zones, renewed rainfall aided ongoing fertilizer applications, especially for crops nearing maturity.
On the supply side, large importers and distributors across the region maintained ample stock levels. Recent shipments have added to cumulative imports, helping secure adequate fertilizer availability for off-season needs and planned tenders, particularly for cotton. In some areas, local governments have allocated substantial budgets to subsidize fertilizers, to stabilize prices and ensure farmers have access to critical inputs such as Urea, NPK blends, and fertilizers with added micronutrients for enhanced crop yield and quality. Prices for standard fertilizers like Urea, NPK 15-15-15, and specialized blends like NPK 0-23-19 remained relatively stable, averaging between $25 and $50 per 50 kg bag across different regions, depending on subsidy levels and local market conditions.
Despite these measures, market prices have seen minor fluctuations due to factors such as sporadic shortages, high energy and transportation costs, and regional currency instability. Currency devaluations and inflation in several countries continue to put pressure on fertilizer costs, impacting affordability for farmers, particularly in areas heavily reliant on imports. In response, some governments have enforced strict border controls on subsidized fertilizers to prevent unauthorized cross-border trade, aiming to protect domestic supply chains and ensuring that local farmers benefit directly from subsidy programs. These combined efforts are intended to support food security and promote sustainable agricultural productivity across the region.
Benin: The 2024 planting season is nearing its end, marked by August – September rainfall totaling 60 mm, lower than the previous year. The rainy season has shortened, with increasingly irregular and intense rainfall, and long droughts lasting up to 30 days in central and southern regions. In contrast, northern areas, including Borgou, Donga, and Atacora, saw an early start to the rainy season, which disrupted normal farming schedules and reduced fertilizer demand. However, this decline has not had a significant impact, as most crops have matured, with some already being harvested in the south. The government has allocated over CFA 24 billion to subsidize fertilizers, allowing farmers to purchase a 50 kg bag of Urea for CFA 15,000 ($25) and NPK for CFA 17,000 ($28), while non-subsidized prices are much higher. To protect these subsidies, authorities are cracking down on illegal fertilizer exports, with border enforcement tasked to stop such activities.
Côte d’Ivoire: In October, fertilizer demand slowed as the main growing season ended, with cotton and cereal crops advancing to late growth or harvest stages, and farmers purchasing less fertilizer. Market gardeners, however, continued buying due to year-round production needs. The cocoa marketing campaign began with a 20% increase in purchase price to CFA 1,800/kg, enabling cocoa producers to afford future fertilizer purchases. Additionally, renewed rainfall in the region aids fertilizer application. On the supply side, large importers maintained stock levels with the recent arrival of 48,000 MT, raising cumulative imports to 435,000 MT and ensuring adequate off-season and cotton tender supplies. Fertilizer prices remained stable from September to October, with a 50 kg bag of Urea priced at CFA 21,000 ($35), NPK 0-23-19 at CFA 19,500 ($33), and NPK 15-15-15 at CFA 22,000 ($37), while cotton fertilizers stayed at last year’s rates.
Gambia: The fertilizer market in The Gambia has remained stable since September all through to October, with prices holding at D1100 per 50 kg bag for both Urea and NPK, unchanged from the start of the cropping season. Despite government subsidies aimed at lowering prices, demand has tapered off as the farming season ends and harvesting begins, particularly for cereals. Recent floods in the Upper and Central River regions have also impacted rice cultivation, further reducing the need for fertilizer top-dressing. Consequently, significant fertilizer stocks remain in the warehouses of the Gambia Groundnut Corporation (GGC) and with local vendors. Several development projects, including ROOTS, P2RS, GRAV, and GICAF, distributed fertilizer to farmers this season, though some stocks have been held back for future use in vegetable gardening and cereal crops in 2025 and 2026. The government has enforced strict regulations to keep subsidized fertilizer within national borders, ensuring these resources benefit local farmers.
Ghana: The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) is in negotiations to purchase 0-18-19 fertilizer with micronutrients, to be likely sourced from Turkey. COCOBOD aims to secure the product at approximately $540/t CFR, while the supplier’s price exceeds $600/t CFR. In October, the price of NPK 23-10-5 rose by 16%, from GHS 450.71 ($27.68) to GHS 524.55 ($32.21) per 50kg bag, reflecting the high costs of fertilizer, partly driven by recent shortages and heightened demand. Ammonium Sulphate and Urea prices, however, have remained stable, averaging GHS 288.00 ($18.00) and GHS 420.38 ($26.78) per 50 kg bag, respectively. To support food production, the government has begun distributing 5,133 MT of seeds and 118,000 MT of fertilizer to 800,000 smallholder farmers nationwide.
Liberia: After six and a half months of rain, the dry season has begun, reducing main farming activities and fertilizer demand as farmers shift to harvesting their crops. Fertilizer prices in Liberia have slightly decreased this month to clear out remaining stock, though they remain high compared to regional levels due to the absence of local production facilities and the indirect effects of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The most used fertilizers, NPK 15-15-15 and Urea, are priced between $45 and $50 per 50kg bag. Transactions are largely conducted in U.S. dollars, though some use Liberian dollars. Despite a slight dip in the exchange rate to 1 USD for 190 LD, market prices remain mostly unaffected.
Nigeria: In October, northern States entered the dry season, with parts of the north-central and southern regions also nearing the end of rainfall, leading to reduced fertilizer demand across retail markets. As demand declined, many fertilizer blenders paused NPK production, and agrodealers struggled with slow sales and increased competition to move their remaining stock, with many types likely to carry over to the next planting season. Fertilizer prices have remained mostly stable, with minimal changes due to the overall slowdown in agricultural activities. Urea prices dropped by 0.4% to ₦697,740 ($419) per MT, while NPK 15-15-15 saw a slight dip of 0.01% to ₦938,460 ($564) per MT, and NPK 20-10-10 fell by 0.1% to ₦818,140 ($419) per MT. These dollar prices are calculated using the October exchange rate of ₦1,665 to $1, up slightly from September’s rate of ₦1,660.
Senegal: In October, as the off-season campaign began, the agricultural sector faced delays in fertilizer availability, particularly following the end of subsidies for certain fertilizers, including formulas 15-15-15, 15-10-10, and 6-20-10, which expired on September 30. In the Kedougou region, stock levels had already depleted, highlighting the urgent need for improved planning and anticipation for the off-season. To enhance the resilience of the agricultural campaign and mitigate the risk of shortages for local producers, it is crucial to harmonize the preparation of specifications and update supply strategies to ensure a continuous availability of fertilizers. Price fluctuations were notable between September and October 2024, with the cost of a 50 kg bag of Urea increasing by 16.03%, from CFA 15,800 ($30.60) to CFA 18,333 ($35.55). Conversely, the popular 9-23-30 formula remained steady at CFA 20,000 ($38.76) per 50 kg bag. Other fertilizers, such as MAP and DAP, also maintained price stability, with MAP priced at CFA 20,625 ($39.98) for 25 kg bags and DAP at CFA 35,000 ($67.83) for 50 kg bags, unchanged from the previous month.
Sierra Leone: In October 2024, Sierra Leone’s fertilizer market faced a moderate risk as prices continued to rise due to import reliance, supply chain issues, and increased demand, with government subsidies offering limited stabilization. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, prices in the Western Area have surged nearly 300%, and by 200% in other regions. Despite recent fuel price reductions, costs of transportation and goods remain high, while inflation increased to 25.49%, prompting the Bank of Sierra Leone to raise its monetary policy rate to 24.75%. Currency depreciation also challenged importers, as the Leone declined 0.05% to NLe 22.598/$, with the black-market rate at NLe 24.60/$. Fertilizer availability is gradually improving as stakeholders focus on food security, although no local manufacturing exists to reduce prices and import dependency. Sales data show moderate demand, with strong early sales in the Western Area and Kambia slowing as the rainy season ends. In Northern and Eastern regions, steady demand is expected as farmers prepare for dry-season planting. Regional price disparities remain, with higher prices in the Western Area, while NPK and Urea prices vary slightly, averaging NLe 30,000 ($1,331) per ton.
Togo: In October 2024, fertilizer demand in Sierra Leone saw a boost due to regional weather patterns: in the south, the short rainy season spurred sowing and plant growth, while in the north, crops reached advanced stages in the ongoing major growing season. This increase in demand aligns with favorable conditions in southern and irrigated areas and is expected to grow as the season progresses. Supply remains robust, with a substantial stock of 69,178 MT, including 63,701 MT of Urea and 5,477 MT of NPK 15-15-15, more than enough for off-season needs. This stock level has been strengthened by the national subsidy program, which mobilized 135,355 MT, well above the initial target of 85,000 MT, and saw the sale of 66,178 MT by October. Prices have remained stable over two years, with food crop fertilizers set at CFA 18,000 ($30) per 50 kg bag for both Urea and NPK 15-15-15, while cotton fertilizers are subsidized at CFA 14,000 ($23) per 50 kg bag for Urea and NPK 12-20-18 +5S +1B.
Availability and Affordability: As the rainy season winds down and harvest season begins across West Africa, fertilizer demand is decreasing, resulting in moderate price stability in many areas. Fertilizer availability remains manageable, with adequate supplies for current needs, though some countries are seeing slight price reductions due to declining demand. However, affordability remains a critical concern throughout the region as local currency fluctuations and inflationary pressures keep fertilizer prices elevated. While government subsidies and imports have helped stabilize prices in some areas, high transport costs and continued dependency on imports limit broader affordability, especially for smallholder farmers.
Distribution: In October, fertilizer importation and logistics across West Africa proceeded relatively smoothly, with minimal disruptions and few border restrictions. Significant quantities of fertilizers were successfully transported through major entry points and distributed to various markets. In Nigeria, logistical operations were generally efficient; however, the Northeast region faced transportation challenges due to ongoing security concerns, which impacted supply chains in that area. The National Port Authority (NPA) across the West African region played a vital role in facilitating efficient logistics and expediting clearance processes for fertilizer imports, contingent upon the maintenance of proper documentation. Overall, the effective coordination among logistics providers and regulatory authorities helped ensure a steady flow of fertilizers, supporting agricultural activities as the harvest season progressed.