Overall market risk: In West Africa, the onset of planting seasons marks a promising start, expected to drive increased demand among farmers. Despite this positive outlook, high price concerns persist across the region (even though they are not as high as it was in 2022/2023), prompting some countries to implement subsidies aimed at alleviating the burden on farmers. Despite efforts to mitigate pricing challenges, the availability of stocks remains notably robust. Encouragingly, no reports have surfaced of scarcity or unavailability of products in any West African country, underscoring a generally stable supply chain.
Benin: The Beninese government has maintained subsidies on fertilizers following a price increase by the cotton company. Over 24 billion FCFA has been allocated for this purpose, ensuring stable prices for urea and NPK fertilizers for the 2024-2025 farming season. Without these subsidies, access to fertilizers for low-income farmers would have been jeopardized, impacting production and national food security. Planting activities have begun in various regions, driven by the onset of the rainy season. Suppliers have increased their stock to meet growing demand, with an estimated 100,000 tons of urea available in the market. Additionally, the Ministry of Agriculture has received a shipment of 45,000 tonnes of NPK fertilizers, with more expected soon at the Autonomous Port of Cotonou.
Cote d’Ivoire: The Ivorian fertilizer market is well-supplied due to consistent efforts by importers, with over 200,000 tonnes available by the first quarter of 2024, in addition to the existing 100,000 tonnes stocked in December 2023. This ample supply meets the average consumption over the past five years, indicating sufficient provision for the current agricultural season. Rising demand from farmers, content with current prices lower than those in the previous year, suggests a potential increase in fertilizer demand for the 2024 crop year. Prices have remained relatively stable between March and April 2024, not exceeding $42 (or 25,000 FCFA) per 50 kg bag for all fertilizer types combined. The cotton sector procured 146,400 tons of fertilizer for the 2024 agricultural season in October 2023, slightly less than the previous year. Current prices stand at $28 (approximately 17,050 FCFA) for urea and $30 (around 18,100 FCFA) for NPK fertilizers, pending finalization for the 2024 season.
Ghana: In April, fertilizer prices remained relatively stable compared to March prices. Moroccan 15-15-15 fertilizer is currently priced at $520 per ton ex-works, with indications that this rate is part of a relief program. Awards for the tender issued by the World Bank for Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) are pending. AGRA, in collaboration with Ghana’s MoFA’s PPRSD, and with backing from USAID and IFDC, has officially delivered the country’s Inorganic Bulk Blending Fertilizer Guidelines to the government.
Liberia: In specific regions of Liberia, the onset of the rainy season has sparked a surge in fertilizer demand among farmers preparing their land for planting, with expectations of continued growth as rainfall becomes more consistent. In April, the fertilizer market presented varied outcomes for different agro-dealers. Agro-dealers adjusted stocking levels in anticipation of higher sales, ensuring adequate supply to meet farmers’ needs nationwide from April into May. Despite government’s lack of subsidy consideration resulting in consistently high fertilizer prices, dealers have implemented measures to sustain their businesses.
Nigeria: is experiencing the onset of the rainy season, driving increased demand for fertilizer in the Southern and North Central regions as farmers prepare for planting. Urea fertilizer prices show a slight decrease, while NPK prices remain relatively stable. Overall, fertilizer products are readily available, supported by ample raw materials for blending, totaling over 449,485.25 metric tons.
Senegal: In April 2024, fertilizers tailored for off-season use continue to be in high demand, with varying availability across the market. Both subsidized and open-market products are accessible, ensuring farmers have what they need for the season, thereby promoting agricultural productivity nationwide. The government’s ongoing efforts to facilitate access to agricultural inputs contribute to competitive market prices while ensuring accessibility, thus supporting agricultural productivity and food security. Analysis of fertilizer prices in different cities reveals significant diversity in both available types and costs. Prices for widely used urea range from 12,500 to 30,000 CFA francs (about $21 to $50) per 50 kg bag, with higher prices observed in northern regions. NPK formulations, including NPK 6-20-10, NPK 15-15-15, and NPK 20-20-20, also vary in price, from 13,000 CFA francs in the southern region of Bignona to 45,000 CFA francs (about $75) in the north in Saint Louis. Despite minor fluctuations, overall fertilizer prices remain relatively stable compared to the previous month, reflecting diverse market needs and product availability across the country.
Sierra Leone: From the end of March to late April 2024, Sierra Leone’s official inflation rate has remained steady at 42.59%, a slight decrease from February’s 47.42%. Throughout April, the exchange rate held stable at Nle 22.5561/$, resulting in overall market price stability. Fertilizer demand remained relatively low as the dry season persisted, with the wet season expected to commence in mid-April, signaling the start of farming activities and a gradual increase in fertilizer demand. However, the slow onset of the rainy season in April led to moderate fertilizer demand nationwide, keeping prices unchanged at retail levels. As farming activities ramp up in late April or early May, it is anticipated that fertilizer demand will rise, potentially driving up prices. The unevenness of fertilizer prices persists across the country, with the Northern province experiencing relatively lower prices compared to the Western Area, averaging 20% less. Diammonium Phosphate prices remain high in the Western Area but notably cheaper in the North and South. Despite availability across Sierra Leone, fertilizer prices are primarily determined by import costs, with factors such as proximity to the Port of Freetown and neighboring Guinea influencing regional distribution.
Togo: In April, Togo experienced a surplus of fertilizer due to the government’s mobilization efforts under the subsidy program. Over 100,000 tons of fertilizer, including urea and NPK 15-15-15, were allocated, surpassing agricultural season forecasts by 100%. With 96,000 tons stocked in designated stores across the country, the private sector also imported additional fertilizer. Despite low demand caused by erratic rainfall, purchases are expected to rise gradually as agricultural activities resume. Subsidized fertilizer prices have remained stable, with urea and NPK 15-15-15 priced at $30 per 50 kg bag, while NPK 12-20-18 +5S +1B is priced at $23 per 50 kg bag. On the open market, NPK 4-2-2 is available at $30 per 50 kg bag.
Availability and Affordability: In April, the fertilizer markets across West Africa exhibit varied pricing patterns at retail outlets. Prices have generally remained steady, although some farmers express concerns about affordability hindering their purchasing capacity. Despite affordability challenges in certain countries, the overall availability of fertilizers remains steady, with no notable reports of shortages. This mixed pricing trend is anticipated to persist into the upcoming year.
Distribution: Fertilizer distribution in West Africa is gradually returning to normalcy, marking a positive shift as the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict diminishes. Most fertilizer ports and border crossings are now operational, indicating improved conditions across the region. Despite ongoing security challenges in Nigeria’s northeastern region, there is optimism with the lifting of various sanctions in Niger by ECOWAS. Landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have demonstrated resilience by utilizing ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a consistent supply chain. This adaptability highlights the agricultural sector’s ability to effectively navigate obstacles. Overall, the stabilization of distribution channels in the region bodes well for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. While localized challenges persist, projections suggest stability and continuity in the vital fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.