Month: March 2024

East Africa and Southern Africa

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Overall market risk: Countries in the region are grappling with challenging economic conditions, compounded by high inflation rates, macroeconomic instability, and the impacts of climate change. These factors have led to soaring food and energy prices, increased production costs, and limited industrial growth in local markets. According to a recent report by PWC, the growth outlook for the region has been revised down from 33%  to 26% for 2023, reflecting the severity of the situation. Moreover, power supply issues are exacerbating the challenges, particularly in the southern region.

In the fertilizer sector, prices have remained elevated throughout February. Despite this, governments are actively devising strategies to ensure that fertilizers remain accessible and affordable for farmers. In Zambia, the Ministry of Agriculture is set to announce a tender for the 2024/25 period, aiming to procure up to 300,000 metric tons. In Rwanda, subsidized fertilizers are available to farmers at prices ranging from Rwf 591 to 748. Other countries like Mozambique and Malawi are facing forex shortages as a major obstacle. Meanwhile, in Kenya, farmers can access subsidized fertilizers at NCPB depots for Ksh 3,500 ($20) per 50 kilograms.

Availability and Affordability: In the East African region, importers and distributors are actively shipping and positioning fertilizers ahead of the upcoming main planting season. Specifically in Kenya, between January and February, 107,000 metric tons of fertilizers have been imported into the country. Additionally, the Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA) is in the process of procuring its customary 97,000 metric tons for the season.

In contrast, Ethiopia‘s East African Business Corporation (EABC) has successfully procured 1.94 million metric tons of fertilizer, with 1.58 million metric tons (81%) being delivered to fulfil the reported demand of 2.3 million tons for the 2023/24 cropping season. Meanwhile, in Tanzania, the country’s fertilizer stocks currently stand at approximately 300,000 metric tons, providing a positive outlook with the projection that the country’s demand will be met by June or July.

In the southern African region, where planting has already concluded, there is a gradual decrease in demand for fertilizers. The planting of main season cereals is wrapping up under varied conditions due to delayed rainfall onset, and forecasted El Niño-induced dry conditions are expected to affect cropping outcomes. Nonetheless, preparations for stockpiling are underway as the winter cropping season approaches.

Distribution: Throughout the region, there have been no significant issues reported regarding the transportation and distribution of fertilizers. However, at the port of Mombasa, the Kenya Ship Agents Association (KSAA) has indicated the potential for increased port charges due to conflicts along the Red Sea route. This conflict has led major shipping lines to reroute vessels, which presents a costly alternative impacting businesses and consumers within the East African Community (EAC). Meanwhile, Beira continues to encounter challenges with delays in the offloading process.

West Africa

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Overall market risk: In West Africa, the onset of rain signals the beginning of the agricultural season in several countries. However, contrary to expectations for the month under review, this has not caused significant fluctuations in fertilizer prices across most countries of the region. Instead, there has been a general notable decline in prices attributed to reduced demand. However, Nigeria stands out with record-high fertilizer prices, largely attributed to the devaluation of the Naira. Despite this, overall, there is a prevailing sense of price stability, affordability, and adequate availability of fertilizers across the region. Even in countries experiencing high prices, there have been no reports of product scarcity; rather, countries like Cote d’Ivoire, have observed market oversupply. Importantly, there have been no substantial reports of fertilizer shortages, with fertilizers remaining readily available in most reviewed countries. The lifting of sanctions in Niger offers hope for improved fertilizer supply, although there is currently no record of shortages. Moreover, there is smooth movement and supply of fertilizers across borders within the West African region.

Benin: In February 2024, nationwide fertilizer demand continued to decline while availability remained steady. Demand for urea and NPK decreased more in the north than in the central and southern regions, driven by low acquisition for yam seedlings in the north and crops like pineapple, maize, and vegetables in the center and south. The Cotton Development Corporation (SODECO) met all fertilizer orders, supplemented by imports from small-scale operators for specific crops. Government preventive measures ensured ample supply, with subsidized fertilizers covering national needs. Prices remained constant at $23 per 50 kg bag. Open market prices saw a 6% decrease, with fertilizers like urea, SSP, NPK 13-17-17, and NPK 14-18-18 sold for about $26 per 50 kg bag. Potassium sulfate prices stayed stable, ranging from $18 to $22.

Cote d’Ivoire: The fertilizer market is stabilizing after a dramatic 174% increase in imports in 2023, leading to significant reserves. Major importers have surplus stock, well above the national forecast, with reports of an additional 75,000 tonnes arriving in February. This oversupply ensures market coverage for the next two months. Consequently, fertilizer prices declined in February, with urea decreasing by 10% and NPK 15-15-15 and NPK 0-23-19 by 4%. This price decrease reflects the decline in import prices and government support, maintaining affordability for farmers.

Ghana: Fertilizer prices decreased in February 2024 due to reduced demand at agricultural dealerships, but they remain high for most farmers. Prices of most fertilizers remained stable, except for Ammonium Sulphate, which saw a 1% decrease. Agricultural dealerships nationwide have significant fertilizer inventories (availability) to meet farming community needs at the beginning of the farming season.

Liberia: The demand for fertilizers remains somewhat stable, but availability and pricing pose significant challenges to agro-dealers, influenced by their location and entry points nationwide. As we approach the main farming season, land preparation is nearly 70% complete, yet fertilizer demand is lower compared to previous months, with prices varying among dealers. In some regions, like the southeastern part of the country, land preparation is finished, awaiting the first rain for seeding, with expectations of high demand and lower prices aligning with the new government’s agenda. However, there is an imbalance in the farmer-to-agro-dealer ratio, with low sales for most dealers as farmers anticipate government intervention to reduce prices through subsidies. Projections for future price fluctuations hinge on new government regulations, policies, and fertilizer availability.

Nigeria: Rising fertilizer costs in Nigeria raise concerns about affordability for farmers, potentially impacting crop yields and food security. As dry-season farming continues and preparations for the wet season are underway, there’s a slight increase in farmer demand. However, the rising prices pose challenges for farmers to access essential inputs, which could significantly affect agricultural productivity and food availability. Factors contributing to the price hike include difficulty obtaining urea from factories, increased raw material costs, higher ex-factory prices, rising diesel and exchange rates, and inflation.

Senegal: In February 2024, demand for off-season fertilizers remains high, particularly for urea, NPK 15-10-10, and NPK 10-10-20 in market gardening areas like Niayes. Similarly, the onset of the irrigated rice season in the Valley has increased demand for DAP. To address seasonal fluctuations, the government has made over 180,500 tons of fertilizer available, ensuring continuous supply throughout the agricultural season. Additionally, 6,000 tonnes of DAP have been supplied to farmers during the shoulder season, contributing to stabilizing the fertilizer market. A public financial contribution of 40 billion CFA francs has reduced prices of subsidized fertilizers, returning them to pre-crisis levels. Main products are now sold at prices such as $21 for a 50 kg bag of urea, $13 for NPK 6-20-10, and $18 for NPK 15-15-15. On the open market, prices fluctuated differently in January and February, with slight decreases for NPK 15-15-15 and NPK 15-10-10, and slight increases for urea, NPK 6-20-10, and NPK 10-10-20, attributed to subsidized fertilizer availability and downward international price trends causing market distortions.

Sierra Leone: In early February 2024, fertilizer sales were moderately high compared to the previous month, particularly in the Western Area. However, sales slowed in the latter half of the month as the dry season settled in Sierra Leone, leading to decreased demand from vegetable farmers. This trend is expected to continue until April 2024. While moderate demand is anticipated from small and large-scale cash crop farmers in the North and South, overall fertilizer demand is projected to be moderately low in the Northern and Eastern regions, where vegetable farming is prevalent. Consequently, prices are expected to remain stable or experience a moderate drop in some areas due to declining demand among vegetable farmers. Prices vary across the country, with the Northern province generally having more reasonable prices compared to the Western Area, where prices are higher. Diammonium Phosphate prices notably increased in February 2024. It’s important to note that all mineral fertilizers, including Urea and NPK, are imported into Sierra Leone, with prices determined by import costs, though other factors contribute to price discrepancies. Various fertilizers, including NPK, Urea, DAP, and organic fertilizers, are available across Sierra Leone, with the Western Area having the largest share.

Togo: The fertilizer market remains stable with abundant supply, supported by the distribution of subsidized fertilizers. From January to February, government structures received 33,952 tons of fertilizers, covering the total order of 173,000 tons. In February, an additional 28,819 tonnes of fertilizer were made available, meeting current demand, particularly for off-season crops. A total of 97,684 tonnes of fertilizer have been distributed, fully covering the annual forecast, with nearly 100,000 tons still available for the next three months. Prices remain unchanged for food crops and cotton-specific fertilizers at $30 and $23 per 50 kg bag, respectively. Private companies focus on limited sales of liquid mineral fertilizers and organic fertilizers. In February, the most common product available is NPK 4-2-2, sold at $30 per 50 kg bag.

Availability and Affordability: Across West Africa, fertilizer markets continue to exhibit varied pricing dynamics at retail levels. Recent currency devaluation has led to major price hikes in some countries like Nigeria, particularly for newly imported products, while regions with existing stock experience more stable pricing. Despite some affordability challenges in specific countries, overall availability remains assured, with no major reports of acute shortages. This mixed pricing trend is anticipated to persist into the upcoming year.

Distribution: Fertilizer distribution in West Africa is rebounding to normalcy, signaling a positive trend as the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict wane. Most fertilizer ports and border crossings are now operational, indicating improved conditions. Challenges persist in Nigeria’s northeastern region due to security issues, while hope rises for Niger as the various sanctions have been removed by ECOWAS. Landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have shown resilience by using ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a steady supply. This adaptability underscores the agricultural sector’s ability to overcome obstacles. Overall, the stabilization of distribution channels in the region bodes well for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. Despite localized challenges, projections suggest stability and continuity in the vital fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.