Overall market risk: The current state of fertilizer pricing in West African nations reflects a decreased demand due to the onset of the dry season in most regions. As a result, fertilizer prices have seen mixed trends in various geographies. Currency devaluation issues have resulted in rises in local currency prices for commodities for new stock with some countries having older stock eliciting stable trends. This mixed trend is expected to persist, aligning with the macro-economic, global price trends and fresh positioning of fertilizers into the region. There have been no major reports of fertilizer shortages, and fertilizers remain available in most of the countries in this region under review. Countries facing conflict issues like Niger continue to adapt to the situation, border closures etc. with “emerging” road channels from Nigeria ameliorating complete availability breakdown. Furthermore, there is an unrestricted movement and supply of fertilizers from country to country.
Cote d’Ivoire: The fertilizer market in Côte d’Ivoire has continued to sustain its stability, with a well-balanced supply and demand scenario. The recent conclusion of the main crop year has led to a decrease in demand, but the supply system, adept at adjusting to market needs, has ensured equilibrium. Importers in Côte d’Ivoire have been proactive, maintaining an impressive quantity of fertilizer in the market with a tonnage of fertilizer mobilized exceeding that of previous years.
Ghana: Fertilizer products are readily available at Agro Dealer shops nationwide. The prices have been relatively stable in some regions while dropping in other regions of the country. On November 3, the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) in Ghana initiated a tender for the purchase of 1,750 metric tons of NPKs and 875 metric tons of urea. The financing for this procurement is secured through a World Bank initiative specifically dedicated to obtaining NPK and urea.
Nigeria is currently in off-season as the dry season sets in most areas. This has led to a noticeable decrease in the blending of NPK fertilizer and a significant decline in farmers’ fertilizer demand. Agrodealers have chosen to keep NPK fertilizer prices stable, considering the limited demand from farmers. Interestingly, urea prices have gone up slightly in the market for the month in review. There is a substantial amount of fertilizer available in the country, ensuring an adequate supply for consumption during the dry season farming.
In Senegal, the agricultural market in the country has continued to maintain its stability, with a balanced supply and demand situation. Adequate preparations, including substantial fertilizer production, imports, and a successful subsidy program, ensured a consistent supply. Fertilizer prices remained stable due to an abundant supply of subsidized fertilizers and a decline in international prices.
Niger: Since the military coup in Niger on July 26, 2023, the situation in the country has experienced minor change, and ECOWAS sanctions remain in effect. The disruption in fertilizer supply persists due to border closures, causing congestion at the port of Cotonou. Fertilizer supply within Niger has significantly decreased, marked by a decline in official imports, and a substantial portion of the supply is now routed through informal channels. Although some fertilizer types are depleted, others, predominantly sourced from neighboring Nigeria continue finding their way into the country unofficially.
In Togo, the northern region saw minimal changes in agricultural activity as the cropping year approached its end, leading to a reduced demand for fertilizer. Meanwhile, the southern region experienced the start of the short rainy season, causing an uptick in fertilizer demand for vegetable and rice cultivation. This increased demand is well-managed, as the market benefits from ample supply and government-supported reserves strategically positioned throughout the country. Fertilizer prices remained stable throughout the year due to continued subsidies, with fixed prices for various types of fertilizers supporting both food and cotton crops. Overall, the government’s efforts contribute to the stability and accessibility of fertilizers in the market.
Availability and Affordability: In general, fertilizer markets in West Africa maintain a mixed price outlook across most retail markets. Currency devaluation on one hand has led to a slight increase in local currency prices, especially for fresh imports, markets with “older” stock have had more stable outlooks. Although concerns about affordability persist in certain countries, there is a widespread assurance of availability, and no reports of severe shortages have emerged. This mixed price trend is likely to continue into the new year.
Distribution: The distribution of fertilizers in West Africa has largely returned to normalcy, signaling a positive shift as the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict diminish. While most fertilizer ports and border crossings are operational, challenges persist in Nigeria’s northeastern region due to security concerns. Additionally, Niger faces import sanctions following a recent coup, complicating distribution. Despite setbacks, landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have shown resilience by using ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a steady supply. This adaptability reflects the agricultural sector’s resourcefulness. The “stabilization” of distribution channels in the region offers a promising outlook for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. Overall, the trajectory points towards stability and continuity in the vital fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.