Month: December 2023

East Africa and Southern Africa

Posted on by admin

Overall market risk: Since early 2022, many African nations have encountered restricted access to international debt markets due to exorbitant interest rates. This situation has prompted Ethiopia to express its intention to restructure its sole overseas bond. Meanwhile, East Africa’s growth forecast has been revised downward by 0.7% to 3.4%, influenced by the civil war in Sudan and the financial pressure on Kenya to repay or refinance a $2 billion bond maturing in June 2024. Southern Africa is expected to exhibit the slowest growth in 2023, at 1.6%, primarily due to persistent power cuts constraining output in South Africa, the region’s largest economy. Notably, countries with less reliance on commodity exports are expected to experience comparatively higher economic growth, offsetting the decline anticipated in commodity-exporting nations. The primary factors affecting fertilizer markets were predominantly macroeconomic, with many countries experiencing significant currency devaluation against the dollar, leading to higher import costs. The cost of credit was also reported as a significant issue across various regions.

Availability and Affordability: In East Africa, the majority of farmers are currently engaged in harvesting crops from the main season. While fertilizer demand is generally low at the moment, importers and distributors are actively seeking products in preparation for the long rain season in March. In the southern region, there is a noticeable increase in demand as farmers prepare for the main planting season in January.

As of December 2023, Kenya has recorded a fertilizer importation of 750,000 metric tons, marking a 15% increase from the previous year. This rise can be attributed to contributions from both the government and the private sector.
In Ethiopia, out of the planned 2.3 million metric tons, the procurement process for 1.48 million metric tons of fertilizer has been successfully concluded, with deliveries ongoing over the next few months.
In Rwanda, as Season A of 2024 concludes, fertilizer importing companies are utilizing the remaining stock to strategize for the upcoming 2024B season, scheduled to commence in February.


Conversely, in Malawi, concerns have arisen regarding a potential shortage of fertilizers for farmers, as the supply for this year is lower. Additionally, the stocks provided in the subsidy program this season amount to 150,000 metric tons, reflecting a 40% decrease from the previous season. Meanwhile, in Mozambique, the government initiated the subsidy program this month, starting with the Manica province.
In Zimbabwe, inventory stocks remain low due to prevailing economic constraints, with high-interest rates for borrowing and limited available funds contributing to the scarcity of stock in retail chains.

Distribution: The Port of Mombasa has announced that it has exceeded the import and export cargo volumes handled last year. This month, there have been reports of vessel diversions from other regional ports, such as Djibouti and Tanzania, due to congestion. Ports Authority (KPA)ging Director of the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA), confirmed these reports and credited the efficient turnaround time to investments in modern technology. In the southern region, Transit has devised a plan to address the backlog at the Durban port. The persistent delays at South Africa’s ports have had adverse effects on importers, retailers, and distributors. Despite these challenges, the importation and distribution of fertilizer appear to be relatively unaffected. Importers are actively positioning their fertilizer products to ensure an ample supply to meet the ongoing demand.

West Africa

Posted on by admin

Overall market risk: In West African nations, the current scenario of fertilizer pricing reflects a decrease in demand due to the ongoing dry season in most regions. Consequently, fertilizer prices display diverse trends across various geographical areas. Challenges associated with currency devaluation have resulted in local currency price increases for newly stocked commodities, whereas countries with older stock are experiencing more stable pricing patterns. This varied trend is anticipated to persist, aligning with macroeconomic factors, global price trends, and the introduction of new fertilizer supplies to the region.

Importantly, there are no substantial reports of fertilizer shortages, and fertilizers remain accessible in the majority of countries in this reviewed region. Even in countries facing challenges such as conflict, as seen in Niger, adaptations to the situation, including managing border closures, are underway. The development of “emerging” road channels from Nigeria is playing a role in mitigating complete availability breakdowns. Additionally, there is unrestricted movement and supply of fertilizers across borders in this region.

Cote d’Ivoire: Fertilizer imports for the current year have surged to a record-breaking 700,000 tons, double the previous year’s total and well beyond the estimated annual demand of 350,000 tons. Despite a brief dip in August and September, imports rebounded, exceeding 60,000 tons in October and reaching over 70,000 tons by mid-December. Major importers, anticipating increased demand, have amassed substantial inventories, closely monitoring global price trends. Although sales are slow due to reduced demand post-harvest, major importers maintain ample reserves for the next three months. Despite the stable fertilizer prices between November and December, there has been a decrease in average prices compared to October.

Ghana: As the year concludes in December, there is a noticeable reduction in agricultural activities across the country. Fertilizer imports have experienced a significant decline, with a 60% reduction in the first half of 2023 compared to the previous year, and a further drop in the latter half, resulting in an overall 68% decrease for the entire year. This decline is primarily attributed to the discontinuation of fertilizer subsidies as part of the Planting for Food and Jobs (PFJ) phase I initiative. Notably, Parliament has approved an $800 million loan for the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) to procure 47% of the anticipated 850,000 metric tons of cocoa beans from farmers in the upcoming 2023/2024 season.

Nigeria: During the ongoing nationwide dry season, there is currently a low demand and utilization of fertilizer. However, agrodealers foresee an imminent increase in demand as farmers gear up for dry season farming. It’s noteworthy that dry-season farming involves a minority of farmers, constituting less than 10% nationwide, with the majority engaged in rain-fed agriculture. The focal point for heightened demand and supply during this period is expected to be in the northern region, where dry-season farming is more prevalent. Anticipating a surge in demand for dry season farming in the upcoming months, there is a potential for price increases driven by increased demand. Presently, fertilizer prices in the market remain relatively stable due to limited demand from farmers across the country. Fertilizers are adequately available in the market, with some blenders continuing production to build up stock for the approaching season.

Senegal: In December, the country continued to successfully navigate potential fertilizer supply challenges, maintaining resilience through effective preparation for the agricultural season. Adequate production and imports ensured a robust response to increased demand from the fertilizer subsidy program, with the government supplying over 180,500 tons of fertilizer. This proactive approach prevented shortages, met farmers’ needs, and upheld market stability.

Regionally, dynamics between supply and demand varied, with decreased fertilizer demand in rain-fed regions like the Groundnut Basin and Casamance due to the conclusion of the rainy season. Large suppliers concluded distribution farming season, and temporary stores shifted focus to other activities. However, demand remained strong in market gardening areas for urea, NPK 15-10-10, and NPK 10-10-20, while the start of the irrigated rice season in the Valley revived demand for DAP. Despite these fluctuations, measures implemented at the beginning of the season ensured sufficient fertilizer availability and relative price stability.

In Togo, Between November and December, there was a notable decrease in fertilizer demand in the market, primarily attributed to the conclusion of the rainy season nationwide and the transition to the dry season. Currently, most regions are engaged in the harvest and post-harvest phases. However, in the southern region, off-season crops, particularly focused on vegetable cultivation and irrigated rice production, continue to drive fertilizer demand. Despite this localized recovery in demand, the market remains stable due to an ample supply.

To ensure consistent availability throughout the crop year, the government, under its subsidy program, has significantly increased orders, mobilizing a total volume of 151,308 tons, surpassing the annual forecast of 85,000 tons. This surplus, including 58,808 tons of urea and 92,500 tons of NPK 15-15-15, is strategically distributed across the country, benefiting from a widespread subsidy of 42% of the cost price for the entire quantity available.

Availability and Affordability: Overall, the fertilizer markets in West Africa display a varied price outlook across most retail markets. Currency devaluation has contributed to a marginal rise in local currency prices, particularly for recently imported products, while markets with existing stock have maintained more stable outlooks. While affordability concerns linger in specific countries, there is a widespread assurance of availability, and no significant reports of severe shortages have surfaced. This mixed price trend is anticipated to persist into the new year.

Distribution: In West Africa, fertilizer distribution has largely normalized, indicating a positive shift as the effects of the Russia-Ukraine conflict lessen. Most fertilizer ports and border crossings are operational, signaling improved conditions. However, challenges persist in Nigeria’s northeastern region due to security concerns, and Niger faces import sanctions after a coup, complicating distribution efforts. Despite these challenges, landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have demonstrated resilience by utilizing ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a steady supply. This adaptability underscores the agricultural sector’s resourcefulness in overcoming obstacles. The stabilization of distribution channels in the region offers a promising outlook for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. Despite localized challenges, the overall projections indicate stability and continuity in the crucial fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.

East Africa and Southern Africa

Posted on by admin

Overall market risk: Africa’s economic expansion is anticipated to decelerate this year, with a partial recovery expected in 2024, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB). The bank has revised its GDP projections downward for the continent, attributing the slowdown to political instability, subdued global economic growth, and elevated interest rates. The latest report indicates a decline in real GDP growth from 4% in 2022 to 3.4% this year, with a subsequent increase to 3.8% projected for 2024. The enduring impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with rising food and energy prices resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, have impeded Africa’s initial robust post-pandemic economic recovery.

Additionally, political unrest across the continent, sluggish global demand affecting exports, monetary policy tightening, and heightened borrowing costs have compounded these challenges. Since early 2022, many African nations have faced restricted access to international debt markets due to exorbitant interest rates, prompting Ethiopia to express its intent to restructure its sole overseas bond. The growth forecast for East Africa has been revised downward by 0.7% to 3.4%, influenced by the civil war in Sudan and the financial pressure on Kenya to repay or refinance a $2 billion bond maturing in June 2024. Southern Africa is projected to exhibit the continent’s slowest growth in 2023, at 1.6%, primarily due to persistent power cuts constraining output in South Africa, the region’s largest economy. Notably, countries not heavily reliant on commodity exports are anticipated to experience comparatively higher economic growth, offsetting the decline expected in commodity-exporting nations. Main factors affecting fertilizer markets for the reporting month were mostly Macro-economic in nature with many countries experiencing significant currency devaluation against the dollar essentially meaning imports have to come at much more cost. The cost of credit was also another issue reported across, multiple regions.

Availability and Affordability: In the East Africa region where short rain season has just completed in some countries and continues in others, fertilizer demand has begun slowing down with the exception of countries like Ethiopia whose main importation window is in full swing. In the southern region, 2023/2024 cropping season has begun and fertilizer demand is high in countries like Zambia and Zimbabwe.

In Kenya, between January and November 2023, about 700,000MT of fertilizer has been imported into the country in both subsidy and private markets (67%/33%)). During the ongoing short rain season, various importers are actively importing fertilizer to ensure availability. While the overall import numbers of fertilizers have not declined, a significant portion (67%) of the imported fertilizers in the country were directly procured through government bodies like NCPB and KNTC. This has seen an outcry from the private sector who feel like they are being crowded out of business.

In Ethiopia, the Ethiopian shipping and logistic services enterprise (ESLSE) is in the process of shipping fertilizers for 2023/24 cropping season. In Malawi, the November stock report from Fertilizer Association of Malawi for NPK and Urea states that in country stocks are 70,771MT, and 149,265MT in port. There are fears of shortage and unaffordability because of forex issues and devaluation of Malawian Kwacha. In Zimbabwe, retail outlets are facing a shortage of fertilizers as farmers are reluctant to borrow at the revised concessionary interest rate of 75%, and fertilizer manufacturers and distributors are constrained by high-interest rates and liquidity issues.

Distribution: The El Niño conditions prevalent in many parts of the Eastern Africa region have caused extensive damage to infrastructure and crops, disrupting transportation in several areas. Beira Port had to halt vessel berthing twice due to strong winds and rainfall. The port is anticipated to experience heightened congestion due to an increased number of export vessels. The early onset of the rainy season, usually spanning from December to March, has exacerbated congestion in vessel berthing, resulting in delays of up to 40 days and escalated demurrage costs. Cargo rail services to Kenya’s Mombasa port have resumed following flood-induced damage to a section of the track. The Durban port in South Africa continues to grapple with inefficiencies, marked by a backlog of over 60 vessels carrying thousands of containers outside the port due to adverse weather conditions and aging equipment.

West Africa

Posted on by admin

Overall market risk: The current state of fertilizer pricing in West African nations reflects a decreased demand due to the onset of the dry season in most regions. As a result, fertilizer prices have seen mixed trends in various geographies. Currency devaluation issues have resulted in rises in local currency prices for commodities for new stock with some countries having older stock eliciting stable trends. This mixed trend is expected to persist, aligning with the macro-economic, global price trends and fresh positioning of fertilizers into the region. There have been no major reports of fertilizer shortages, and fertilizers remain available in most of the countries in this region under review. Countries facing conflict issues like Niger continue to adapt to the situation, border closures etc. with “emerging” road channels from Nigeria ameliorating complete availability breakdown. Furthermore, there is an unrestricted movement and supply of fertilizers from country to country.

Cote d’Ivoire: The fertilizer market in Côte d’Ivoire has continued to sustain its stability, with a well-balanced supply and demand scenario. The recent conclusion of the main crop year has led to a decrease in demand, but the supply system, adept at adjusting to market needs, has ensured equilibrium. Importers in Côte d’Ivoire have been proactive, maintaining an impressive quantity of fertilizer in the market with a tonnage of fertilizer mobilized exceeding that of previous years.

Ghana: Fertilizer products are readily available at Agro Dealer shops nationwide. The prices have been relatively stable in some regions while dropping in other regions of the country. On November 3, the Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MoFA) in Ghana initiated a tender for the purchase of 1,750 metric tons of NPKs and 875 metric tons of urea. The financing for this procurement is secured through a World Bank initiative specifically dedicated to obtaining NPK and urea.

Nigeria is currently in off-season as the dry season sets in most areas. This has led to a noticeable decrease in the blending of NPK fertilizer and a significant decline in farmers’ fertilizer demand. Agrodealers have chosen to keep NPK fertilizer prices stable, considering the limited demand from farmers. Interestingly, urea prices have gone up slightly in the market for the month in review. There is a substantial amount of fertilizer available in the country, ensuring an adequate supply for consumption during the dry season farming.

In Senegal, the agricultural market in the country has continued to maintain its stability, with a balanced supply and demand situation. Adequate preparations, including substantial fertilizer production, imports, and a successful subsidy program, ensured a consistent supply. Fertilizer prices remained stable due to an abundant supply of subsidized fertilizers and a decline in international prices.

Niger: Since the military coup in Niger on July 26, 2023, the situation in the country has experienced minor change, and ECOWAS sanctions remain in effect. The disruption in fertilizer supply persists due to border closures, causing congestion at the port of Cotonou. Fertilizer supply within Niger has significantly decreased, marked by a decline in official imports, and a substantial portion of the supply is now routed through informal channels. Although some fertilizer types are depleted, others, predominantly sourced from neighboring Nigeria continue finding their way into the country unofficially.

In Togo, the northern region saw minimal changes in agricultural activity as the cropping year approached its end, leading to a reduced demand for fertilizer. Meanwhile, the southern region experienced the start of the short rainy season, causing an uptick in fertilizer demand for vegetable and rice cultivation. This increased demand is well-managed, as the market benefits from ample supply and government-supported reserves strategically positioned throughout the country. Fertilizer prices remained stable throughout the year due to continued subsidies, with fixed prices for various types of fertilizers supporting both food and cotton crops. Overall, the government’s efforts contribute to the stability and accessibility of fertilizers in the market.

Availability and Affordability: In general, fertilizer markets in West Africa maintain a mixed price outlook across most retail markets. Currency devaluation on one hand has led to a slight increase in local currency prices, especially for fresh imports, markets with “older” stock have had more stable outlooks. Although concerns about affordability persist in certain countries, there is a widespread assurance of availability, and no reports of severe shortages have emerged. This mixed price trend is likely to continue into the new year.

Distribution: The distribution of fertilizers in West Africa has largely returned to normalcy, signaling a positive shift as the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict diminish. While most fertilizer ports and border crossings are operational, challenges persist in Nigeria’s northeastern region due to security concerns. Additionally, Niger faces import sanctions following a recent coup, complicating distribution. Despite setbacks, landlocked nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have shown resilience by using ports in Cote d’Ivoire for fertilizer imports, ensuring a steady supply. This adaptability reflects the agricultural sector’s resourcefulness. The “stabilization” of distribution channels in the region offers a promising outlook for agricultural resilience and sustainable growth. Overall, the trajectory points towards stability and continuity in the vital fertilizer supply chain across West Africa.