Overall market risk: Farming seasons are gradually winding off across West African countries, as some are already preparing for the dry season farming. Generally, demand for Fertilizers has reduced, while fertilizers remain available in the various markets with no issues of scarcity reported including Niger, as products stilled flowed in through parallel routes. There has been an unrestricted movement and supply from country to country, except for Niger, which has been sanctioned by ECOWAS after the coup d’état. West African region is still experiencing somewhat higher prices when compared to other times, even though prices have been dropping in the market recently. On a general scale, prices have been quite stable in most countries with no reports of unavailability, which also reflects the prices stability in the international market.
Cote d’Ivoire: Over the period from August to September 2023, fertilizer imports fell significantly by 40% compared to July alone. The volume imported during this period was slightly less than 30,000 tons, while in July it reached 50,000 tons. However, this decrease has no impact on the fertilizer market, as the major growing season is coming to an end. At the same time, importers had mobilized a tonnage 71% higher than the previous year since the beginning of the year. This stock is not yet exhausted and is expected to reach more than 100,000 tons in September, which should be enough to cover the needs of the next three months.
Ghana: Ghana is presently in its minor planting season, which commenced in September and is set to last until November. Fertilizer prices have been stable in the open market and products are available with no report of shortages. In August 2023, food inflation experienced a notable decline, dropping by 3.1% to reach 51.9%, down from the 55.0% recorded in July 2023. The government of Ghana has introduced a new cocoa producer price of GHc1,308 ($112.65), which is the highest in the West African region.
In Nigeria, there was availability of NPK and urea in the market due to improved supply by the Urea manufacturers including Notore. The improved supplies have affected the prices of fertilizers, as they are gradually dropping in the retail market, coupled with the dropping demand due to the raining seasonal end. Despite the drop in the price of fertilizer due to availability and low demand, the prices of fertilizers are still relatively high when compared to previous periods.
Senegal: The fertilizer market in Senegal remains dynamic, as in the previous month. An increase in demand for fertilizer from farmers was noticed, resulting from the ongoing planting period in all production areas of the country. Farmers, as well as their groups, are increasingly purchasing fertilizers. Despite the demand, there are sufficient stocks available and Agrodealers are still restocking supplies from the manufacturers. The implementation of subsidized fertilizers started late but have delivered more than 80,000 tons of NPK and urea, which helped to ensure satisfactory market availability of urea, NPK 6-20-10 and NPK 15-15-15. This August, the introduction of quotas has increased significantly. Compared to the previous month, fertilizer prices on the open market fell by 8% for NPK 15-15-15 and by 14% for urea, a direct result of the deployment of fertilizers at subsidized prices.
Niger: Fertilizer inflows to Niger are affected by ECOWAS sanctions, as a result, fertilizer imports in September were low, recording only 3,000 tons of fertilizer of all formulas, according to customs data. This brings the total import to 34,000 tons for the first nine months of the year. However, this figure does not reflect the real situation, as more than 80,000 tons of additional fertilizer are transported by parallel routes, according to assessments carried out by the control services of the Ministry of Agriculture. However, these fertilizer flows have begun to decrease due to the drop in demand related to the end of the rainy season.
In Togo, the demand for fertilizers has drastically dropped as the rainy season has ended. Government-guaranteed fertilizer stocks are available in all parts of the country and can fully meet farmer’s demand. It is important to note that under the subsidy program, 123,500 tons of fertilizer (consisting of 83,500 tons of NPK 15-15-15 and 40,000 tons of urea) have been made available, which exceeds the projected requirements of 85,000 tons of fertilizer for the year by more than 100%. The fertilizer price for the month of September remains unchanged and is identical to that established in 2022.
Availability and Affordability: Generally, Fertilizer markets have relatively returned to normalcy in West Africa with prices being stable in most retail markets with a few exceptions. Although affordability is still a major issue in some countries, overall availability has been established with no report of any severe shortages including Niger.
Distribution: Distribution has somewhat returned to normalcy across West Africa, as the effect of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is gradually fading away. All fertilizer ports and borders are open, apart from Nigeria’s northeast area, which continues to restrict fertilizer movement owing to insecurity and Niger which has gotten import sanctions due to the ongoing coup d’état. Landlocked nations such as Mali and Burkina Faso are using ports in Cote d’Ivoire to import fertilizer.