Overall market risk: The demand for fertilizers is increasing steadily across West Africa, especially now that the decrease in prices recorded in the international market is beginning to be reflected in the local retail market. Across the region, various reports indicate fertilizer availability in sufficient volumes. There have been predictions that the prices of fertilizers would further decrease, which is likely to increase consumption levels. Importations are still ongoing across the region, triggered by decreasing international prices.
Cote d’Ivoire: Demand has continued to pick up due to decreasing prices, and as a result fertilizer suppliers have continued to mobilize stocks and position their products to meet demand. Since the beginning of 2023, 530,000 MT have entered Côte d’Ivoire according to Customs data. Import volumes since the beginning of 2023 have already increased by 53% compared to last year 2022. Decline in prices on the international market is reflected in the local market and normalcy in the market is gradually returning.
Ghana: While the government has assured farmers of developing a favorable and a proactive policy geared towards the agricultural sector, many farmers are still buying below the required quantity as they eagerly await further reduction in local prices., especially with various experts forecasting a further drop in the prices of Urea. However, fertilizers are available in the market at any desirable quantity.
In Nigeria, there has been consistent increase in demand of fertilizers, as the farming season has fully commenced nationwide. This has triggered a slight increase in the prices of NPKs which are the mostlyly purchased fertilizers. Urea on the other hand has been decreasing in price in the retail market, which was attributed to the decrease in international and factory prices. Due to cost considerations, fertilizer purchases are still relatively below expectation compared to other years, but fertilizers are generally available in most parts of the country.
In Togo, the government has made provision for some fertilizers even though reports indicate that products are available in the country. The demand for fertilizers this season is still increasing, however the government has assured stakeholders that the growing demand for fertilizer will be met. So far, it is expected that the government would have procured about 123,500MT for this planting season.
Availability and Affordability: The fertilizer market is gradually returning to normalcy with the continuous fall in prices in the international market. So far affordability remains an issue in some countries, while some other countries are beginning to get some signs of relief, as the decrease in international prices is becoming visible in the retail market.
Generally, across West African countries, fertilizer availability is not an issue, as most countries are still importing despite having stocks for the season. In some countries, they are yet to fully consume their carryover stocks in the market and are still importing more stocks to keep.
Distribution: Despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, fertilizer supply and distribution in West Africa is gradually normalizing. All fertilizer ports and borders are open, apart from Nigeria’s northeast area, which continues to restrict fertilizer movement owing to insecurity. Landlocked nations such as Mali and Burkina Faso are using ports in Cote d’Ivoire to import fertilizer.