Month: October 2023

East Africa and Southern Africa

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Overall market risk: Across the globe, there continues to be a significant level of inflation in domestic food prices. Based on the most recent data available for 2023, a majority of low- and middle-income countries are grappling with high levels of inflation. According to the World Bank, more than 5% inflation was observed in 70.6% of low-income countries, 81.4% of lower-middle-income countries, and 84% of upper-middle-income countries, with a considerable number experiencing inflation rates in the double digits. Nonetheless, the World Bank predicts that Kenya‘s economy will experience a slightly faster growth rate this year, primarily due to the recovery of the crucial agriculture sector. The nation’s economy is expected to expand by 5.0% in 2023, a slight increase from the 4.8% growth recorded last year. The recent improvement in rainfall across farming regions, following two years of debilitating drought, is anticipated to enhance production and alleviate inflationary pressures. In South Africa, inflation is anticipated to stabilize at around 4.5% in 2024 and beyond. In Rwanda, agriculture assessment reports have shown that the country has been affected by drought at more than 70%, and therefore, there is a greater need to mobilize farmers to cultivate all available land for season 2024A. Due to these, domestic prices for food commodities have increased significantly. 

On matters concerning fertilizer, there is an optimistic forecast in the respective fertilizer markets as international prices of N, P and K are gradually decreasing and availability from different trade routes normalising. 

Availability and Affordability: Overall, no major fertilizer shortage has been reported across East and Southern African countries, with little pockets of limited to moderate inventory reported in Malawi, Mozambique etc. In The East region where the main season has concluded, demand is low. In the southern region, importers and distributors are positioning fertilizers ahead of the season. 

As per the Fertilizer Association of Malawi (FAM), there is an approximate stock of 100,000 MT of NPK and Urea fertilizers within the country. Furthermore, there are plans for additional imports in the upcoming months, with the only hurdle being the availability of forex. In Tanzania, enough supply to meet demand has been reported. As of June 2023, about 900K MT of fertilizers was reported in the country. About 10% of this has been reported as exports. In Zimbabwe, retail outlets have reported moderate to low stocks. The primary cause for this is the reluctance and incapability of fertilizer manufacturers and distributors to maintain large inventories. This is because of elevated interest rates for borrowing and the inadequate cash flow resulting from the market’s liquidity crunch. Sable Chemicals has not been able to produce anything from the beginning of the year up to now due to liquidity constraints and severe working capital limitations. In Ethiopia, the distribution of fertilizers is ongoing smoothly with no major setbacks. 

Distribution: No major issues have been reported at the ports and border posts in most countries, but inefficiencies at the port of Beira is of concern to traders supplying product for the 2H of the year. 

In Northern Cape in South Africa, flooding has resulted in some road closures that could affect the transportation of commodities to the region. In Mozambique, Beira and Nacala ports which serve as the main ports of inland countries have continued to report inefficiencies such as delays and high taxes, especially on handling fertilizers. In Kenya, the increase in fuel prices could see a rise in transportation cost of commodities. On the other hand, KPA has reported a growth (in TEU’s) of Mombasa port as evidenced by the recent increased operations.  

West Africa

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Overall market risk: The demand for fertilizers is increasing steadily across West Africa, especially now that the decrease in prices recorded in the international market is beginning to be reflected in the local retail market. Across the region, various reports indicate fertilizer availability in sufficient volumes. There have been predictions that the prices of fertilizers would further decrease, which is likely to increase consumption levels. Importations are still ongoing across the region, triggered by decreasing international prices.  

Cote d’Ivoire: Demand has continued to pick up due to decreasing prices, and as a result fertilizer suppliers have continued to mobilize stocks and position their products to meet demand. Since the beginning of 2023, 530,000 MT have entered Côte d’Ivoire according to Customs data. Import volumes since the beginning of 2023 have already increased by 53% compared to last year 2022. Decline in prices on the international market is reflected in the local market and normalcy in the market is gradually returning. 

Ghana: While the government has assured farmers of developing a favorable and a proactive policy geared towards the agricultural sector, many farmers are still buying below the required quantity as they eagerly await further reduction in local prices., especially with various experts forecasting a further drop in the prices of Urea. However, fertilizers are available in the market at any desirable quantity. 

In Nigeria, there has been consistent increase in demand of fertilizers, as the farming season has fully commenced nationwide. This has triggered a slight increase in the prices of NPKs which are the mostlyly purchased fertilizers. Urea on the other hand has been decreasing in price in the retail market, which was attributed to the decrease in international and factory prices. Due to cost considerations, fertilizer purchases are still relatively below expectation compared to other years, but fertilizers are generally available in most parts of the country. 

In Togo, the government has made provision for some fertilizers even though reports indicate that products are available in the country. The demand for fertilizers this season is still increasing, however the government has assured stakeholders that the growing demand for fertilizer will be met. So far, it is expected that the government would have procured about 123,500MT for this planting season.  

Availability and Affordability: The fertilizer market is gradually returning to normalcy with the continuous fall in prices in the international market. So far affordability remains an issue in some countries, while some other countries are beginning to get some signs of relief, as the decrease in international prices is becoming visible in the retail market. 

Generally, across West African countries, fertilizer availability is not an issue, as most countries are still importing despite having stocks for the season. In some countries, they are yet to fully consume their carryover stocks in the market and are still importing more stocks to keep. 

Distribution: Despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, fertilizer supply and distribution in West Africa is gradually normalizing. All fertilizer ports and borders are open, apart from Nigeria’s northeast area, which continues to restrict fertilizer movement owing to insecurity. Landlocked nations such as Mali and Burkina Faso are using ports in Cote d’Ivoire to import fertilizer. 

East Africa and Southern Africa

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Overall market risk:

According to the 2023 East Africa Economic Outlook by the African Development Bank, East Africa is projected to have the strongest economic performance in Africa for 2023 and 2024, with growth rates surpassing five percent. Despite this positive outlook, there are potential risks to the region’s economy, both from external factors like a global economic slowdown, rising commodity prices, and international trade policies, as well as domestic issues like the continued Russian invasion of Ukraine, tightening global financial conditions, and exchange rate depreciation. On food security, although drought conditions eased in the region, production prospects remain unfavourable in 2023. Erratic rains are impairing 2023 production prospects, following two successive years of widespread drought that had a devastating impact on food security, which is further weakened by conflicts. In Rwanda, agriculture assessment reports have shown that the country has been affected by drought at more than 70%, and therefore, there is a greater need to mobilize farmers to cultivate all available land for season 2024A. Due to these, domestic prices for food commodities have increased significantly.  In Zimbabwe, big farmers are holding on to their crops and only selling enough for working capital requirements citing that the price is not viable. The currency risk continues to be a hindrance to agriculture and productivity across all sectors. According to FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI), in several districts of Tanzania, before the start of harvesting operations, between 35 and 70 percent of cropland was affected by severe drought, with likely substantial crop production shortfalls.  

In the fertilizer sector, despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, fertilizer prices have significantly dropped in recent months. This decline can be attributed to the reduced costs of raw material inputs like natural gas, urea, and ammonia. The global economy has been able to adapt to the disruptions caused by the war by seeking alternative sources for natural gas and other materials. 

Availability and Affordability: Overall, the fertilizer market faces greater risks related to fiscal factors like currency devaluation and operational challenges, rather than issues concerning availability. 

 Based on the stock report compiled by the Fertilizer Association of Malawi for July, the major suppliers in the country have around 100,000MT of NPK and Urea fertilizers available for the commercial market. This marks a slight increase from the previous month’s report, which indicated a stock of approximately 70,000MT in June. As of July, Tanzania reported that its national requirement has already been met at 148% in the period Jul 2022- Jul 2023. In Kenya, KTDA is heard to have restarted its awarding process of about 91, 000 MT of NPK 26-5-5.  In South Africa, increased demand for MOP is being observed as global prices present a stable to soft outlook in the short term. In Zimbabwe, the holding stock in retail outlets remained moderate to low. Farmers are also unable and unwilling to go in and borrow from the schemes at the revised concessionary interest rate of 75% being offered on the commercial schemes. In Mozambique, fertilizer demand is low as farmers are almost done harvesting. In Zambia, suppliers have continued to steadily buildup their stock positions for Urea, D Compound as well as other blends for the winter commercial crop and the main upcoming farming season. In Rwanda, for this 2024A season, there has been an increase in the number of fertilizer supply companies from 4 to 5. So far, 55,000 MT of fertilizers has been imported representing 55% of annual consumption. In Ethiopia, EABC continues to cover more quantities under its annual buy tender 2022/23 with about 81% covered. 

Distribution: No major issues have been reported at the ports and border posts in most countries.  In July, certain regions of Kenya experienced anti-government protests that led to disruptions in transportation. However, this did not really affect the distribution of fertilizers. The demand for logistics providers into Zambia from Beira in July has risen. The estimated time of transit of commodities out of Beira and Dar-Es-Salaam stood at an average of 5 working days in July. Ethiopia has made deliberate efforts to distribute fertilizers to the civil strife affected Northern region. 

West Africa

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Overall market risk: Despite the full commencement of the rains across West Africa, farmer demand for fertilizers remains depressed year on year (YoY) in some countries in the region. Reports indicate that there is sufficient availability of fertilizers with no shortages, but there have been delays in the supply chain. The situation has led to predictions that fertilizer prices will further decrease, potentially leading to increased consumption levels. 

However, the farming season is gradually ending in some countries, which could hinder the expected increase in consumption. As the season comes to a close, farmers may already have procured the necessary fertilizers, and new purchases might be limited. 

Importations and fertilizer supplies are still ongoing across the region, driven by decreasing international prices. Some countries have, however, put their importation plans on hold due to political issues. For instance, in Niger, political factors have influenced the decision to postpone fertilizer importations. 

As an overview, while the rains have arrived and fertilizers are available in West Africa, the demand from farmers has not shown significant growth compared to the previous year. Despite the expected decrease in fertilizer prices and ongoing importations, factors like the timing of the farming season and political issues in certain countries may impact the overall fertilizer consumption levels in the region. Continued monitoring of the situation will be important to understand how it evolves in the coming months. 

Cote d’Ivoire: Fertilizer demand has continued to increase, amidst decreasing and stabilizing international prices. As a result, fertilizer suppliers have continued to mobilize stocks to meet product demand. Import volumes since the beginning of 2023 have already increased by 53% compared to last year 2022, as over 530,000 MT have entered Côte d’Ivoire according to Customs data. As already reported, fertilizer prices show a downward trend of 17% to 30% less compared to the level of the first quarter of 2023 but remain relatively stable compared to June 2023. 

Ghana: The Ministry of Agriculture have announced their intention to replace the PFJ with a value-chain strategy. Demand in Ghana is currently low, as many markets are already preparing to transition into their off-season. From Jan – June 2023, approximately 150,000 tonnes of fertilizer were imported, with the majority being NPKs (40%) and urea (24%). Nonetheless, imports during this period remain lower than the corresponding periods in 2022. Furthermore, there has been a significant overall decrease in fertilizer prices across the country compared to the start of the year. 

In Nigeria, there have been continuous increase in demand owing to increased farming activities despite the increasing retail cost. With the availability of fertilizer raw materials, there has been continuous blending of NPK fertilizers in the country. However, there has been a reported shortage of supply of some NPK brands resulting from low production because of Urea supply shortages, which is also responsible for the rising retail Urea cost. Fertilizers are still generally available in sufficient quantities in the market.     

In Togo, the government has made provision for some fertilizers for the farming season. State-ordered fertilizer stocks are set up in all localities of the country. There is an increase in outlets this year. About twenty points of sale have been created, added to the 215 old ones. The state-guaranteed fertilizer stock is sufficient to fully cover the demand for fertilizer by farmers, which has intensified since planting began. In addition to the residual stocks of the previous season, the volume of fertilizer ordered in 2023 amounts to 123,500 tons (including 83,500 tons of NPK 15-15-15 and 40,000 tons of urea). It represents more than 100% of the annual need coverage rate estimated at 85,000 tons of fertilizer. Of the 123,500 tons, 87% are already available, or 107,500 tons of fertilizer. The rest of the order is being delivered. 

Availability and Affordability: Some sense of normalcy gradually returning in the sub-region. We are witnessing mixed outlooks in terms of consumption from country to country in comparison to 2022 season. 

Largely across West African countries, fertilizer availability is not a major issue, with some countries continually importing despite having sufficient stocks for the season. 

Distribution: Despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, fertilizer supply and distribution in West Africa is gradually normalizing. All fertilizer ports and borders are open, apart from Nigeria’s northeast area, which continues to restrict fertilizer movement owing to insecurity and Niger which might likely get import sanctions due to the ongoing coup d’état. Landlocked nations such as Mali and Burkina Faso are using ports in Cote d’Ivoire to import fertilizer. 

East Africa and Southern Africa

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Overall market risk: East and Southern Africa have shown resilience in the face of economic challenges, including the Ukraine-Russia war and various external shocks. As of August 2023, the region is expected to continue its gradual recovery, with economic growth rates generally positive, albeit potentially at varying paces across different countries. Inflation rates vary across the region. Governments and central banks are implementing prudent monetary policies to keep inflation in check and maintain price stability.

On food security, according to World Food Programme, despite the improved precipitation during the March to May (MAM) season in 2023 and the projected El Niño event later in 2023, the aftermath of the 2020-2023 drought is likely to have a lasting impact. This is because it resulted in the destruction of livelihoods and left 23.4 million people in drought-affected areas facing ongoing food insecurity.

In the fertilizer space, prices have sustained their downward trend for over a year, extending into the first half of August 2023. This decline is linked to the ongoing growth in global production capacity.

Availability and Affordability:Overall, no major fertilizer shortage has been reported. The fertilizer market is exposed to risks associated with fiscal factors such as currency devaluation and operational difficulties. As the short rain season draws near in East Africa, most importers and governments are seen to be positioning different fertilizer products. In Rwanda, importing companies already have the stocks in the country although the demand and sale is still slow due to inadequate and erratic rains. According to Fertilizer Association in Malawi, fertilizer stocks have arrived at the port and its distribution for the season is now dependent on the availability of forex. In Zimbabwe, limited stocks in the retail chain in Q4 have been reported due to high interest on borrowing and due to cash flow constraints arising from the liquidity crunch in the market. In Kenya, stocks of DAP and NPK 17-17-17 with an ETA for September is being reported. At the same time, the government is rolling out the second phase of the subsidy program’s price adjustment. Agrodealers have expressed their plans to refrain from stocking fertilizer inventory during the short rainy season. This decision is primarily influenced by the decreased demand for commercially priced fertilizer compared to the subsidized product. In South Africa, demand for fertilizers is slowly picking up. A shortage of nitrogen fertilizers has been reported. Foskor and Purefert are also working to meet the demand for MAP. For Potash, a lineup of shipments is reported to have been sold out.

Distribution: No major issues have been reported at the ports and border posts in most countries. In Kenya, fuel pump prices remain high although there has not been any further escalation compared to the preceding month. Cargo handling is also set to improve at Mombasa port following the procurement of new Ship-to-Shore gantry cranes (STSs). In Tanzania, ACT Wazalendo in collaboration with the government are developing five plan strategy to improve port deal with DP world.

West Africa

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Overall market risk: Generally, across the countries in West Africa, the farming season is still on, but gradually winding up in most countries, as the raining season subsides. Fertilizers remain available but fluctuations in prices from country to country depending on the level of demand continue. There has been an unrestricted movement and supply from country to country, however, countries experiencing coup d’état have somewhat restricted the movements along their borders, in some cases, totally closed.

As earlier predicted, international prices have been stable or even decreasing in the month under review, but that hasn’t translated into decreased retail prices in some West African region, as some countries are still experiencing higher retail prices due to their own internal peculiar challenges, but on a general scale, prices have been quite stable in most countries with no reports of unavailability.

Cote d’Ivoire: Fertilizer demand has continued to increase, with the international prices being stable or even decreasing in some cases this month. Fertilizer imports have recovered strongly after a year of reduced activities. Since the beginning of 2023, 589,605 tonnes have been imported into Côte d’Ivoire (according to customs data). This volume already represents an increase of 71% compared to the previous year. As mentioned earlier, fertilizer prices are on a downward trend, with a reduction of 17% to 30% compared to the level of the first quarter of 2023, although these prices remain relatively stable compared to June 2023.

Ghana: The country is entering its minor growing season, which starts in September and extends through November. According to data from AfricaFertilizer, Ghana has imported approximately 220,000 metric tons of fertilizer between January and July 2023. In July of this year, Ghana’s food inflation reached 55.0%, slightly higher than the 54.2% recorded in June, with a month-on-month food inflation rate of 3.8%. The inauguration of the second Phase of Planting for Food and Jobs Program aims to revolutionize Ghana’s agriculture by modernizing and enhancing the agricultural sector, with a particular focus on the development of specific commodity value chains and active private sector participation.

In Nigeria, the base application period of fertilizers is gradually ending, which is reducing the quantity demanded especially for NPK’s. As previously reported, there is still a gas supply shortage to the Urea plant. The shortage has resulted in a limited supply of urea, which has seen Urea prices increase this month. Similarly, the cost of raw materials for blending has increased, thereby increasing the retail cost in the market. The high cost of local transportation further worsened this situation, thereby culminating in making prices relatively high.

Senegal: The fertilizer market in Senegal is also dynamic, as in the previous month. An increase in the demand for fertilizer from farmer-producers is noticed, resulting from the current planting period in all production areas of the country. There is an adequate supply of fertilizer from producers and major importers to meet this growing demand. Regarding the subsidy, authorized distributors are busy setting up their quotas at the level of distribution commissions, following notifications received for the distribution of subsidized fertilizers. The implementation of subsidized fertilizers started late in the distribution committees. This August, the introduction of quotas increased significantly, which helped to ensure satisfactory availability of urea, NPK 6-20-10 and NPK 15-15-15 on the market.

In Togo, the State-guaranteed fertilizer stocks are available in all areas of the country and are sufficient to fully meet the growing demand from producers since the beginning of the planting season. Combined with the remaining stocks from the previous season, the volume of fertilizer ordered in 2023 totals 123,500 tons (including 83,500 tons of NPK 15-15-15 and 40,000 tons of urea), exceeding by more than 100% the projected needs of 85,000 tons of fertilizer for the year. The price of fertilizer for the month of August remains unchanged and is similar to that of 2022 from the same period.

Availability and Affordability: Fertilizer markets have relatively returned to normalcy with prices being stable in most retail markets across West Africa, with a few exceptions. Although affordability is still a major issue in some countries, overall availability has been established with no report of any severe shortages. Consumption has increased when compared to last month across the regions, but it has still not returned to what it used to be when compared to previous years.

Distribution: The effect of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war on fertilizers are gradually fading away with importation and distribution returning to normalcy across West Africa. All fertilizer ports and borders are open, apart from Nigeria’s northeast area, which continues to restrict fertilizer movement owing to insecurity and Niger which has gotten import sanctions due to the ongoing coup d’état. Landlocked nations such as Mali and Burkina Faso are using ports in Cote d’Ivoire to import fertilizer.

East Africa and Southern Africa

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Overall market risk: The East African economies are currently facing a precarious situation due to a range of external risks. These risks include a global economic slowdown, an escalation of regional conflicts, a decrease in external financing, and the upward trajectory of global food and energy prices. In comparison to other sub-Saharan African countries and historical levels, inflation in the largest East African economies has remained relatively moderate. Nevertheless, these countries are witnessing an increase in inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic, primarily due to external shocks. Some countries are also grappling with inflationary pressures stemming from domestic factors. A notable example is Ethiopia, where inflation has experienced a significant surge over the past few years. While the conflict in Tigray has exacerbated this issue, inflation has been a major policy concern in the country since the early 2000s. The rising prices are a cause for concern in the region, especially given the high levels of poverty and inequality, as well as the limited social protection systems in place.

Reliefweb reports that the current strong El Niño event, which is expected to peak in late 2023 and then gradually fade by mid-2024, will bring both positive and negative consequences for acute food insecurity worldwide. Typically, El Niño leads to reduced rainfall in Southern Africa and increased rainfall in eastern East Africa. The adverse effects of decreased rainfall and higher temperatures on farming output, food costs, and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) services are most worrying in regions of Southern Africa that are susceptible to drought. Meanwhile, the concerns in the eastern Horn of Africa are centered on the impacts of heavy rains and flooding on agricultural production, transportation infrastructure, market access, and WASH services, particularly in riverine and low-lying areas.

In the fertilizer space, fertilizer prices have continued to drop. This decline can be attributed to the reduced costs of raw material inputs like natural gas, urea, and ammonia. The global economy has been able to adapt to the disruptions caused by the war by seeking alternative sources for natural gas and other materials, and also by constructing new production facilities worldwide.

Availability and Affordability: In East Africa, fertilizer demand is slowly picking up as the short rain season starts. In Kenya, no fertilizer shortage has been reported. As of September, fertilizer importation into the country stood at approximately 650K metric tons. This is in line with the average annual importation. Shipments of DAP and NPK 17 17 17 have also been reported with an ETA of mid-September. In Tanzania, 550K metric tons have so far been imported into the country. Shipments of DAP and other NPK products are in the process for shipment end of September.

Ethiopia’s EABC  recently cancelled its 2022/23 urea tender for 981K metric tons and is now seeking 200K metric tons for the same. This means they are now facing limited options and uncompetitive prices due to similar deadline and delivery timeframe as the Indian tender. One Acre Fund in Rwanda is in the process of procuring Urea.  In Zambia, manufacturers and suppliers have continued to steadily build up their stock positions for Urea, and D Compound as well as for other blends of fertilizers for the upcoming main farming season. It is also reported that the Government has awarded its tender of 120K metric tons of Urea to multiple small and medium-sized companies. In South Africa, importations of urea, potash and phosphates have been 50% lower compared to previous years.

Distribution: No major issues have been reported at the ports and border posts in most countries. Importation of fertilizer through the countries’ ports and borders is unaffected and in-country movement experiencing no disruptions.

West Africa

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Overall market risk: Farming seasons are gradually winding off across West African countries, as some are already preparing for the dry season farming. Generally, demand for Fertilizers has reduced, while fertilizers remain available in the various markets with no issues of scarcity reported including Niger, as products stilled flowed in through parallel routes. There has been an unrestricted movement and supply from country to country, except for Niger, which has been sanctioned by ECOWAS after the coup d’état. West African region is still experiencing somewhat higher prices when compared to other times, even though prices have been dropping in the market recently. On a general scale, prices have been quite stable in most countries with no reports of unavailability, which also reflects the prices stability in the international market.

Cote d’Ivoire: Over the period from August to September 2023, fertilizer imports fell significantly by 40% compared to July alone. The volume imported during this period was slightly less than 30,000 tons, while in July it reached 50,000 tons. However, this decrease has no impact on the fertilizer market, as the major growing season is coming to an end. At the same time, importers had mobilized a tonnage 71% higher than the previous year since the beginning of the year. This stock is not yet exhausted and is expected to reach more than 100,000 tons in September, which should be enough to cover the needs of the next three months.

Ghana: Ghana is presently in its minor planting season, which commenced in September and is set to last until November. Fertilizer prices have been stable in the open market and products are available with no report of shortages. In August 2023, food inflation experienced a notable decline, dropping by 3.1% to reach 51.9%, down from the 55.0% recorded in July 2023. The government of Ghana has introduced a new cocoa producer price of GHc1,308 ($112.65), which is the highest in the West African region.

In Nigeria, there was availability of NPK and urea in the market due to improved supply by the Urea manufacturers including Notore. The improved supplies have affected the prices of fertilizers, as they are gradually dropping in the retail market, coupled with the dropping demand due to the raining seasonal end.  Despite the drop in the price of fertilizer due to availability and low demand, the prices of fertilizers are still relatively high when compared to previous periods.

Senegal: The fertilizer market in Senegal remains dynamic, as in the previous month. An increase in demand for fertilizer from farmers was noticed, resulting from the ongoing planting period in all production areas of the country. Farmers, as well as their groups, are increasingly purchasing fertilizers. Despite the demand, there are sufficient stocks available and Agrodealers are still restocking supplies from the manufacturers. The implementation of subsidized fertilizers started late but have delivered more than 80,000 tons of NPK and urea, which helped to ensure satisfactory market availability of urea, NPK 6-20-10 and NPK 15-15-15. This August, the introduction of quotas has increased significantly. Compared to the previous month, fertilizer prices on the open market fell by 8% for NPK 15-15-15 and by 14% for urea, a direct result of the deployment of fertilizers at subsidized prices.

Niger: Fertilizer inflows to Niger are affected by ECOWAS sanctions, as a result, fertilizer imports in September were low, recording only 3,000 tons of fertilizer of all formulas, according to customs data. This brings the total import to 34,000 tons for the first nine months of the year. However, this figure does not reflect the real situation, as more than 80,000 tons of additional fertilizer are transported by parallel routes, according to assessments carried out by the control services of the Ministry of Agriculture. However, these fertilizer flows have begun to decrease due to the drop in demand related to the end of the rainy season.

In Togo, the demand for fertilizers has drastically dropped as the rainy season has ended. Government-guaranteed fertilizer stocks are available in all parts of the country and can fully meet farmer’s demand. It is important to note that under the subsidy program, 123,500 tons of fertilizer (consisting of 83,500 tons of NPK 15-15-15 and 40,000 tons of urea) have been made available, which exceeds the projected requirements of 85,000 tons of fertilizer for the year by more than 100%. The fertilizer price for the month of September remains unchanged and is identical to that established in 2022.

Availability and Affordability: Generally, Fertilizer markets have relatively returned to normalcy in West Africa with prices being stable in most retail markets with a few exceptions. Although affordability is still a major issue in some countries, overall availability has been established with no report of any severe shortages including Niger.

Distribution: Distribution has somewhat returned to normalcy across West Africa, as the effect of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is gradually fading away. All fertilizer ports and borders are open, apart from Nigeria’s northeast area, which continues to restrict fertilizer movement owing to insecurity and Niger which has gotten import sanctions due to the ongoing coup d’état. Landlocked nations such as Mali and Burkina Faso are using ports in Cote d’Ivoire to import fertilizer.